335
FXUS64 KOUN 072357
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
657 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

 - Significant severe weather with the potential of large hail,
   damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and flooding are possible
   Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon in a weakly capped environment across south
central/southeast Oklahoma with weak surface convergence from a
remnant convective boundary. The most intense thunderstorms may
produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Any thunderstorms are
expected to be diurnally-driven and should weaken toward late
evening.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Intense thunderstorms are expected to develop by early to mid-
afternoon across northwest Oklahoma as a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough interacts with a surface cold front. Extreme instability
(~5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and moderate shear (~40 to 50 knots
effective bulk shear) will result in supercells with a significant
hail (2"+) and tornado risk.

With time, the supercells are expected to coalesce into a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) as they move to the southeast
with the development of a cold pool in its wake. There is the
potential for destructive, straight-line winds (80 mph or higher)
that could produce widespread wind damage with embedded QLCS
tornadoes as the forward-propgaging MCS accelerates to the
southeast tomorrow evening across Oklahoma into north Texas. Note
there remains some uncertainty on the exact track of the MCS
(e.g., southwest/west central Oklahoma vs. central Oklahoma) and
the location of the most intense wind gusts. Power outages are
likely in the track of the most intense winds. In addition to
severe weather, heavy rainfall will result in a continued threat
for flooding.

In the wake of the departing MCS, northerly winds and cooler
weather should result in a break in showers and thunderstorms on
Monday.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

As we go into Tuesday a bit of a split flow over the western part of
the conus with southern stream system moving through the southern
Rockies out into Texas bringing additional rain chances to mainly
southern OK and north TX. This system will then become closed off and
slowly lift north and northeast Wednesday into Thursday with more
widespread rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
evening hours for KCSM and KDUA. Otherwise, light and variable
winds along with VFR conditions are expected tonight into Sunday
morning. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected
to develop as early as Sunday afternoon over northwest Oklahoma
and progress southeast-ward through the evening hours with the
potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. MVFR conditions
are possible in association with these storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  91  64  82 /  10  50  80  10
Hobart OK         68  93  63  84 /  10  50  80  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  94  67  83 /  20  20  80  30
Gage OK           62  86  59  83 /  10  60  40   0
Ponca City OK     64  90  61  85 /   0  50  40   0
Durant OK         72  91  68  83 /  60  20  80  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01