780
FXUS64 KOUN 070353
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

 - Cooler this weekend, followed by a gradual warmup back to
   normal next week.

 - Very low chances for showers Sunday through Monday night,
   mainly northern Oklahoma.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Surface high pressure, centered over northern Oklahoma, will
shift slowly eastward tonight. This will keep surface winds
generally from the northeast and east with a light southeast wind
returning to parts of western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, low and
especially mid- level clouds continue to thin late this morning
and this trend will continue, especially across southern Oklahoma
and northern Texas. Although limited cloud cover is expected this
evening, humidity profiles remain rather high, so scattered to
broken clouds may redevelop during the overnight period. There is
also a chance of heavy dew and some fog where the sky remains
mostly clear. This may occur across central and south central
Oklahoma. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side with lows
ranging from the lower 50s (north central OK) to near 60 (along
the Red River).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Most of the day Sunday will be dry with a return of a light south to
southeast wind and slightly higher dewpoints.  With northwest flow
aloft, a weak upper level disturbance will approach the central and
southern Plains Sunday evening.  This combined with a moderate low-
level jet may result in widely scattered showers/storms across
mainly northwestern Oklahoma. If precipitation develops, most of
this will end of move east by mid to late morning Monday.
Although a ridge will begin to amplify Monday into Monday night
over the Rockies, another weak disturbance may bring scattered
showers and storms Monday evening into Monday night. This activity
should mainly occur across the northern half of Oklahoma. After
Tuesday morning, dry and warmer weather is expected for the rest
of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

The long term forecast will be dominated by an upper ridge, keeping
rain chances low and allowing temperatures to return to normal.

Models diverge for the upcoming weekend on the path of an
approaching trough that could bring additional rain chances to the
area.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

There is potential for MVFR conditions with across south central
Oklahoma overnight, mainly in the KADM to KADH corridor. MVFR
conditions are possible at KDUA, but at a 40 percent probability,
it is not included as a TEMPO group in the 06Z TAFs. Elsewhere,
the clouds over northwest Oklahoma will have VFR ceilings, and
skies will be mostly clear elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  79  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         57  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  61  82  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           55  80  60  83 /   0   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     53  81  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         63  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26