648
FXUS64 KOUN 081920
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
120 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

- Heavy rain is possible through the rest of the afternoon, ending
  from west to east this evening.

- Frost possible Saturday night NW OK.

- Strong cold front expected Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1044 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A dynamic mid-latitude cyclone is located over the High Plains
today. Water vapor imagery clearly shows a warm conveyor across the
western part of our area, a developing comma head across much of the
central US, and a nascent dry slot across the Texas South Plains.
Surface analysis places the surface low across western north Texas.

Short-range guidance shows that while the core of the cutoff low
aloft will remain over New Mexico, it is expected to "pivot" into an
extremely negative tilt by this afternoon such that the upper-level
jet approaches. In response to this, the surface low will drift
northward across the western part of our area. Aided by the dry
slot, a cold frontal push is expected across much of our area this
afternoon. A narrow arc of convection is expected immediately ahead
of the front where moist advection will allow theta-E values to
briefly approach 340K. The major question is whether enough surface-
based instability can develop so that a low-end severe risk could
materialize this afternoon along the Red River. It`s a low-
probability-of-occurrence scenario, but the "ceiling" would be an
arc of shallow rotating storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes.

Hydrologically, our wet November will continue ahead of the passage
of the Pacific front. A particular area that might be hard-hit by
heavy rain this afternoon is western/northwestern Oklahoma, where
the nearby meandering of the surface low will help keep
wraparound moisture in place in spite of the cold front`s best
effort. Low-end flooding issues (low-lying spots, flood-prone
streams, etc) will continue.

The front will begin to clear the eastern part of our area late this
evening. Behind it, rapidly cooling and drying conditions are
expected, with lows tonight dropping into the 30s in our western
zones and near 50 in the far southeast part of the area.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The cutoff low will meander into the Central Plains tomorrow while
occluding itself heavily. Our forecast area will remain well behind
the cold occlusion, which will mean sunny skies and cool-to-mild
temperatures across the forecast area. Winds will continue to
slacken throughout the day and overnight, setting us up for an even
cooler night tomorrow night. Frost will be possible in the
northwestern portion of Oklahoma.

Height rises are expected across our area on Sunday morning. Light
winds, abundant sunshine, and temperatures recovering into the 60s
and low 70s will be the result. Things look to be maybe a degree or
two warmer on Sunday night, so the chance for frost to return looks
lower.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

An improbable return of the subtropical ridge is expected for most
of the long-term period. While the STR will be latitudinally
confined within Mexico, the practical effect will be to keep the
jetstream to our north with a shortwave ridge pattern in the place
on Monday and Tuesday. Highs should get into the upper 60s toward
the middle 70s.

A strong trough will eject through the central Plains on Wednesday.
This is the time of year when such an occurrence leads to a cold
front blasting into the area, and indeed that looks to be the case.
The warmest temperatures on Wednesday may end up down south where
the front doesn`t arrive until later. Precipitation chances from
this cold front look unclear but not overly high. After that,
temperatures will quickly rebound on Thursday and Friday.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Areas of precipitation/thunder, along with low cigs/vis, will
contribute to IFR-LIFR category at most terminals through sunset
Friday. As a surface front sweeps through the area, a transition
towards MVFR then VFR conditions, and west/southwesterly wind
shift, is expected. This should occur at all terminals by
~near/just after sunrise on Saturday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  41  62  43  65 /  80   0   0   0
Hobart OK         38  64  39  67 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  42  67  44  68 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           36  61  35  66 /  30   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     41  61  39  63 /  90   0   0   0
Durant OK         49  68  48  73 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ009>012-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>038-044.

TX...Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09