840
FXUS64 KOUN 081738
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

- Heavy rainfall, flooding possible today.

- Frost possible Saturday night NW OK.

- Frost/Freeze possible middle of next week W/N OK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1044 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A dynamic mid-latitude cyclone is located over the High Plains
today. Water vapor imagery clearly shows a warm conveyor across the
western part of our area, a developing comma head across much of the
central US, and a nascent dry slot across the Texas South Plains.
Surface analysis places the surface low across western north Texas.

Short-range guidance shows that while the core of the cutoff low
aloft will remain over New Mexico, it is expected to "pivot" into an
extremely negative tilt by this afternoon such that the upper-level
jet approaches. In response to this, the surface low will drift
northward across the western part of our area. Aided by the dry
slot, a cold frontal push is expected across much of our area this
afternoon. A narrow arc of convection is expected immediately ahead
of the front where moist advection will allow theta-E values to
briefly approach 340K. The major question is whether enough surface-
based instability can develop so that a low-end severe risk could
materialize this afternoon along the Red River. It`s a low-
probability-of-occurrence scenario, but the "ceiling" would be an
arc of shallow rotating storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes.

Hydrologically, our wet November will continue ahead of the passage
of the Pacific front. A particular area that might be hard-hit by
heavy rain this afternoon is western/northwestern Oklahoma, where
the nearby meandering of the surface low will help keep
wraparound moisture in place in spite of the cold front`s best
effort. Low-end flooding issues (low-lying spots, flood-prone
streams, etc) will continue.

The front will begin to clear the eastern part of our area late this
evening. Behind it, rapidly cooling and drying conditions are
expected, with lows tonight dropping into the 30s in our western
zones and near 50 in the far southeast part of the area.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Cooler and drier weather expected through the weekend. With clear
skies and light wind Saturday night, there appears to be the
possibility for frost formation across northwest Oklahoma by
daybreak Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

In the wake of our current upper level storm system, mainly zonal
flow will take over with at least one low amplitude s/wv passing
over the region late Monday into Tuesday. This particular feature
is expected to be moisture starved and should have minimal
sensible impacts across the region. Medium range models diverge on
solutions thereafter, with the ECM still more amplified with most
of a progressive longwave trough late Tuesday and Wednesday. The
GFS is farther north and a little faster. Rain chances still
appear fairly low and mainly confined to areas east of Interstate
35. With this passing wave, the main impact will likely be
stronger winds ahead of and immediately behind a pacific cold
front. Surface ridge is progd to settle over the region late
Wednesday behind this front, and if they settle down enough, a
light freeze or frost will be possible across northern and western
Oklahoma Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Areas of precipitation/thunder, along with low cigs/vis, will
contribute to IFR-LIFR category at most terminals through sunset
Friday. As a surface front sweeps through the area, a transition
towards MVFR then VFR conditions, and west/southwesterly wind
shift, is expected. This should occur at all terminals by
~near/just after sunrise on Saturday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  62  43  67 /  80   0   0   0
Hobart OK         39  64  39  67 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  44  66  44  69 /  40   0   0   0
Gage OK           36  60  34  67 /  40   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     43  61  39  64 /  90  10   0   0
Durant OK         51  69  48  73 /  90  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ009>012-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>038-044.

TX...Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...09