784
FXUS64 KOUN 040453
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1153 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1153 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

- Shower and storm chances continue much of next week, with heavy
  rainfall and severe weather possible.

- Much cooler weather expected Wednesday.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Ongoing severe convection will continue along and ahead of an
advancing cold front, which will move through central into southeast
Oklahoma this afternoon and this evening. Much drier and cooler air
will overspread the the area behind the cold front. Temperatures may
fall into the upper 40s across northwest Oklahoma by morning with
50s across much of the rest of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

We get a bit of a lull in the activity for Wednesday with a cool and
mostly cloudy day. Afternoon highs will mainly be in the 70s, some
10 degrees below normal for early June.

Another shortwave trough will eject out of the southern Rockies into
the Plains tonight bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms first to western Oklahoma overnight and over the
entire area on Thursday morning, which could pose a low end severe
risk.

By Thursday afternoon, additional convection is expected to develop
across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma along a warm front.
This is expected to develop into a complex of storms (MCS) that will
propogate east/southeast aross mainly southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma and will pose a damaging wind and hail risk along with very
heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

An outflow boundary or effective cold front should be located across
central and or southern Oklahoma Friday night.  There`s some
evidence of another wave providing additional lift for storms Friday
afternoon and evening.  There will be a continued risk of high
rainfall rates with storms that form and a risk of strong to severe
storms.

Another shortwave trough approaching in northwest flow, and a
surface front/elevated boundary, may focus another round of strong
storms late Saturday into Sunday morning. At this time, it appears
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas will be the favored area for
this activity.  It`s possible that enough drier air will advect into
the southern Plains, that most of Sunday will be dry.

The active pattern will likely persist into early next week with
additional chances of thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

MVFR and some IFR ceilings have overspread most of the area and will
persist into the morning. A few sites, mainly in western and
northern parts of the forecast area may see some ceilings lift late
morning to afternoon tomorrow. Some patchy fog is possible tonight,
but widespread fog is not expected.

&&

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14