530
FXUS64 KOUN 081130
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
530 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

- Heavy rainfall, flooding possible today.

- Frost possible Saturday night NW OK.

- Frost/Freeze possible middle of next week W/N OK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Current shield of rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms should
continue trend of weakening as it progresses to the north and
east. Renewed convection now developing just west of the 100th
meridian will be the next wave of rain that will spread north and
east this morning. A last wave of precipitation is expected to
develop this afternoon across western portion of Oklahoma down
into western north Texas and spread eastward over the region this
evening and tonight.

Intense upper low over New Mexico early this morning is expected
to eject to the north and east this afternoon and tonight as
strong mid-level jet spreads from the base to the eastern
periphery of system. As this occurs, a dryslot will spread from
southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the
deeper dry air, the last round of rain with scattered
thunderstorms is expected to spread from west to east. With the
upper low progressing more northward than eastward tonight, no
wrap around precipitation is expected. Overall instability will be
weak and elevated, but shear will be quite strong. This could
pose at least some risk for strong wind gusts late today into this
evening if we were to see much in the way of clearing between
rain episodes. For now, the severe weather risk for today will
remain just to our south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Cooler and drier weather expected through the weekend. With clear
skies and light wind Saturday night, there appears to be the
possibility for frost formation across northwest Oklahoma by
daybreak Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

In the wake of our current upper level storm system, mainly zonal
flow will take over with at least one low amplitude s/wv passing
over the region late Monday into Tuesday. This particular feature
is expected to be moisture starved and should have minimal
sensible impacts across the region. Medium range models diverge on
solutions thereafter, with the ECM still more amplified with most
of a progressive longwave trough late Tuesday and Wednesday. The
GFS is farther north and a little faster. Rain chances still
appear fairly low and mainly confined to areas east of Interstate
35. With this passing wave, the main impact will likely be
stronger winds ahead of and immediately behind a pacific cold
front. Surface ridge is progd to settle over the region late
Wednesday behind this front, and if they settle down enough, a
light freeze or frost will be possible across northern and western
Oklahoma Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Upper level system will maintain widespread areas of rain with
weak embedded thunderstorms along with low ceilings and reduced
visibilities that will maintain IFR to LIFR conditions across our
terminals at least through 00Z. Will see conditions start to
improve to VFR conditions after 00Z at terminals across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas to near 05Z across terminals in
central Oklahoma. Terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma will likely
remain in IFR conditions through this entire forecast. A surface
low across our southwestern CWA will keep surface winds generally
out of the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  44  62  43 /  90  80   0   0
Hobart OK         65  39  64  39 / 100  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  44  66  44 / 100  40   0   0
Gage OK           56  36  60  34 / 100  40   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  43  61  39 /  90  90  10   0
Durant OK         67  51  69  48 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ009>012-014>018-021>024-
     027-033>038-044.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...68