177
FXUS64 KOUN 261955
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
255 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

- Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Oklahoma this
  afternoon with a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
  tornadoes.

- Daily chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain continue
  through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

An MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) continues to lift to the
northeast across central Oklahoma with remnant showers. A wake low
on the backside of the MCV is resulting in a southeast to
northwest pressure gradient force (PGF)--causing breezy southeast
winds across central Oklahoma.

Across southeast Oklahoma, ahead of the MCV, additional
thunderstorms--including supercells--are developing this afternoon
in the open warm sector. The environment here is favorable for
all severe weather hazards (damaging wind gusts, hail, and
tornadoes) with increasing instability ahead of the MCV. The
greatest risk is across Atoka and Bryan counties.

For tonight, isentropic ascent/warm advection may result in a few
showers/storms toward sunrise. The greatest risk is across north
central into central Oklahoma. Some patchy fog and drizzle is
likely as well.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Shortwave ridging across the Southern Plains should result in
less convective coverage on Sunday with a relative lull in
convection expected. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
Sunday morning in associated with warm air advection/isentropic
ascent. The greatest risk is across north central into central
Oklahoma. Isentropic ascent may also result in some drizzle and
fog during the morning.

By afternoon/early evening, there is a low chance of development
across western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas.
However, with weak synoptic-scale ascent on the eastern periphery
of an approaching through, the probability is low (~20%). If
storms do develop, they could become severe.

By Monday, a mid/upper level trough will lift into the Plains
with a dryline advancing eastward into the Southern Plains. By
afternoon, the environment ahead of the dryline is forecast to
become weakly capped/uncapped. Shear and instability ahead of the
dryline will be sufficient for supercells with all hazards (large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes) Monday afternoon into
the evening.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

As northern wave presses east it drives a front south through the
area Monday night into Tuesday, but conditions remain favorable
across at least the southeast two-thirds of the area for another
round of severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Main hazards
do appear to be hail and wind, along with heavy, potentially
flooding rainfall.

Yet another compact shortwave approaches on Wednesday with surface
front lifting back north through the day. However, deep moisture
profile should limit overall instability, outside of southern
Oklahoma and north Texas, where a more favorable airmass may reside
for severe storms.

We may then get a break in the storms for latter part of the week
before another system approaches by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
affect north central, central, and southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas through mid to late afternoon. Visibility and ceiling
restrictions are likely within this area of rain. To the northwest
of this rain (KWWR), fog is ongoing with IFR visibilities. Once
the rain departs, MVFR to IFR conditions will continue across most
terminals with stratus and then potentially fog overnight.

Ahead of this area of rain, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
may develop across southeast Oklahoma (which could affect KDUA).

Light east to east-northeast winds will gradually become
southeast through the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  79  66  80 /  20  10  10  20
Hobart OK         60  81  64  84 /  20  10  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  64  84  67  85 /  30  10  10  30
Gage OK           55  80  61  85 /  10  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     59  78  66  82 /  60  20  10  20
Durant OK         65  83  68  82 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ025-027>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10