497
FXUS64 KOUN 052352
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
552 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 336 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

- Areas of fog to potentially dense fog tonight.

- Temperatures trend upwards Thursday and into Saturday.

- A strong (but dry) cold front arrives on Saturday.

- Colder pattern next week with rain likely and a chance for
  snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Widespread cloud cover remained common across much of the CWA this
afternoon. However, a weak mid/upper level shortwave, currently
moving through the region had aided in the back edge of the cloud
cover moving eastward with far northwest Oklahoma beginning to
clear. Also with the movement of the shortwave, the majority of
the areas of reduced visibility/drizzle had shifted east over
mainly central into eastern Oklahoma. The combination of the
clouds and reduced visibility along with the shallow cooler
airmass over the region, temps this afternoon have only been able
to warm into the 40s/low 50s for much of the CWA.

Through tonight, the weak shortwave is expected to push off to the
east within the nearly zonal flow aloft across the Plains. In
response, cloud cover at least on the western half of the CWA
could become more scattered with model soundings indicating a
nearly saturated layer at the surface. At the same time, the
surface frontal boundary is progged to lift back north of the Red
River, helping to add to the low level moisture profile. Thus,
patchy areas of fog are forecast to develop this evening and
become more widespread/dense fog overnight. For now will hold off
on any fog headlines for tonight and let the evening shift re-
evaluate with 00z data. Low temps tonight look to fall into the
30s in northern Oklahoma to 50s south of the Red River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Current thinking with the surface frontal boundary is for it to
not get too far northward Thursday as surface high pressure is
progged to sag southward into the region during the day. This
should push the front back south of the Red River Thursday
evening/night. As the front sags back south Thursday
afternoon...there is potential for a few light rain showers over
mainly southeast Oklahoma, where 50+ deg dewpoints look to reside.

There remains uncertainty with how far north the frontal boundary
can retreat Friday, which adds to the uncertainty of high
temperatures south of the Red River into southern Oklahoma. At
this time, NBM trends look to be a little too warm over these
locations based on the warm ECMWF. For this forecast, have gone
slightly cooler for highs Friday south of the Red River as there
is potential that the front remains in Texas during the day.
Either way, temps look to begin warming slightly Thursday over the
CWA and continue a warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Once again the frontal boundary is forecast to lift back into the
region Saturday before another weak mid/upper level shortwave
moves through the region. This will push a stronger cold front
through Oklahoma and northern Texas during the day Saturday.
Behind this front, breezy northerly winds transport cooler
conditions into the CWA Sunday and Monday.

Cooler conditions continue for the first half of next week while a
shortwave develops/moves into southern California and the Baja
Peninsula, and begins to lift moisture back across the southern
Plains. In response, rain chances return during the day Monday to
the CWA and remain possible through Tuesday when the wave lifts
into the region. Temperature profiles across the northern half of
the forecast area indicate that wintry weather could develop with
rain mixing with snow Monday afternoon/evening into Tuesday. The
wintry precip potential looks to sag farther southward Tuesday
night with the shortwave moving over the region. Details with this
next week system will continue to be updated as forecaster
confidence and model certainty increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

IFR ceilings through much of the area will persist, and may spread
back into areas that had cleared through the evening. We expect to
see fog become widespread again overnight. A cold front will move
into the area Thursday morning and moves south through the area
through the day. As drier air spreads in behind the front,
visibilities are expected to improve, but ceilings may be slow to
rise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  56  39  63 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         41  59  35  66 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  52  67  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           36  54  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     41  54  35  54 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         60  72  50  73 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...26