231
FXUS64 KOUN 060334
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1034 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1031 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

  - Rain returns to the forecast Sunday night thru Tuesday.

  - A cold front brings cooler temperatures on Tuesday.

  - Warm and dry weather then returns for the second half of the
    week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Another warm, breezy day across Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Highs this afternoon will top out in the mid/upper 80s and lower
90s, well above seasonal norms. As we go into tonight a cold front
will approach northwest Oklahoma. This front along with modest low
level jet and associated waa will result in an increase in
development of showers and a few thunderstorms. Most of this
activity will initially be to our north in Kansas, but may slip
further south into northwest Oklahoma toward morning.

Otherwise, another mild night with temperatures dropping into the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A positively tilted trough will gradually drop southeast through the
central Rockies and northern Plains Monday and Monday night. This
along with a cool surface high across the northern/central Plains
will aid in giving the cold front a push southward into southern
Oklahoma by Tuesday morning. At the same time, a southern stream
shortwave trough will eject northeast into the southern Plains. This
will interact with the front to produce more scattered
shower/thunderstorm activity. Highest chances however remain across
northwest Oklahoma. These chances wane during the day Tuesday.
Rainfall amounts still look to remain rather meager with perhaps a
tenth to a quarter of an inch possible across far northwest Oklahoma.

Also watching an area of deeper moisture across the northern gulf
which will lift north through the lower MS valley late Monday into
Tuesday. This increase in moisture may produce a few daytime showers
across southeast Oklahoma.

Ahead of the front Monday, temperatures will once again rise well
above normal with much of the area approaching 90 degrees Monday
afternoon. The front and associated cloud cover and possible precip
will bring temperatures down some on Tuesday, especially across
northwest parts of the state where temperatures may remain in the
60s through the day. Meanwhile, south and east of the i-44 corridor
temperatures are still expected to climb into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

On Wednesday, surface high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest
will continue to build east with a southerly wind returning to
Oklahoma and northern Texas by early Thursday.  A mid-level ridge
will begin to rebuild and amplify, but how far west this will occur
is uncertain.  Ensembles favor the ridge axis near of close to the
southern and central Plains which bring more above-average
temperatures and dry conditions at least Thursday into
Friday/Saturday.  If the ridge axis is positioned farther west, the
southern Plains will transition to northwest flow aloft with a
chance of more rain and another cold front by late Thursday into
Friday. For now will keep the forecast dry and warm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected at most TAF sites through the period.
A wind shift is expected tomorrow evening after sunset as a cold
front begins to move into the area late tomorrow night. Showers
will be possible through much of the morning at KWWR. As the cold
front moves in towards the end of the period, MVFR ceilings will
be possible. Highest confidence for MVFR ceilings within this TAF
period is at KWWR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  64  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         90  62  88  60 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  89  62  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           87  62  82  53 /   0  20  30  40
Ponca City OK     89  62  88  60 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         87  65  87  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...13