328
FXUS64 KOUN 221721
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1121 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1115 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

- Warm weekend.

- Cold front arrives Sunday night with cooler temperatures for
  early next week.

- Next rain chances possibly by Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 150 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface ridge will be located north to south across much of the
Plains, including Oklahoma today. Light and somewhat variable winds
here in central Oklahoma with south winds across the west. As this
surface ridge slowly translates eastward by late in the day winds
will shift to the south across much of the area. Meanwhile aloft,
mid-level ridging will gradually shift east out of the Rockies into
the Plains, bringing some higher heights and warmer temperatures.
Although this will be offset some due slow modification of the cool
surface ridging. So anticipate temperatures very similar to what
occurred across the area Thursday. A small embedded shortwave may
bring a few more high clouds to the area today.

Much of this cloud cover shifts east tonight and with dry airmass in
place and light south winds, temperatures will cool quickly, with
30s and lower 40s for overnight lows. Most locations are expected to
remain above freezing, but a few isolated locales may get close.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 150 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Broad, low amplitude ridging will build across much of the central
CONUS over the weekend. Meanwhile, lee surface trough will aid in
increasing surface pressure gradient and increasing south winds.
Quite breezy conditions expected by Sunday. This will result in a
nice warm up for Saturday and especially as we into Sunday.
Widespread 70s and perhaps a few 80s could occur near the Red river
Sunday afternoon.

At this same time dewpoints will be on the increase, which will keep
overnight lows significantly warmer as well. Sundays lows (50s) will
be closer to what we have seen recently for highs.

A storm system will move onshore across the western U.S. on Saturday
and make its way east into the central and northern Rockies as we go
through the day Sunday and then into the Plains Sunday night. As
this occurs, a surface cold front will slip south. Some timing
differences remain, but regardless it looks to be a dry frontal
passage and will bring temperatures back closer to normal or
slightly below normal for early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Models then bring another storm system toward the southern Plains as
we approach the middle of the week into Thanksgiving day. Currently
both the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF bring a rather strong
cold front south through the area on Wednesday with a low chance of
rain, mainly across eastern Oklahoma with a secondary wave that
could bring a shot of cold rain on Thanksgiving day. Temperatures
may struggle to get out of the 40s Thanksgiving day across the
northern half of Oklahoma. Perhaps even colder the day after.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with variable
high clouds. Otherwise, a south to southeast wind will return
this afternoon into the evening/overnight. Wind speeds today will
be on the light side, but will increase by Saturday morning.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  39  66  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         60  38  67  50 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  40  72  54 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           61  36  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  34  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         61  37  69  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06