105
FXUS64 KOUN 090354
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1052 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

 - Dangerously hot and humid conditions continue through Saturday
   before a gradual "cool down" starting Sunday into early next
   week.

 - Chances for rain/storms return late Sunday and continue into
   early next week, primarily across northern Oklahoma.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Closed upper high ridging across the US Southwest through the
Southern Plains will continue our heatwave for another day.  As a
result, a Heat Advisory remains in effect this afternoon across our
entire forecast area until early this evening prior to sunset with
heat indices generally in the 105-110 degree range.  Late afternoon
heating coupled with an embedded mid-level shortwave rotating
through the ridge may initiate some convection on the Southern High
Plains toward the evening hours but for now expecting it to stay on
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles west of our forecast area. However
will need to keep an eye on storms tonight since it could be near
the western edge of our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Saturday afternoons MaxTs could be challenging due to dirty ridging
with denser mid to high cloudiness.  Did adjust Saturday afternoons
MaxT slightly cooler than NBM using the CONSMOS guidance.  For now
expecting up to scattered cloud cover which should not affect heat
advisory criteria across most of our area. Although we`ll remain
under the ridge for one more day Saturday, a large amplitude trough
digging across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. will be pushing a
surface low and cold front across the Central High Plains and
stalling across southwest Kansas. This will advect some drier
surface air across western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas
with more upper 50s dewpoints which would lower the heat indices
there as well.  However greater surface moisture of 60-70 degree
dewpoints will persist west to east across the rest of our area.
With drier surface air producing lower heat indices (100-105
degrees) across northwest Oklahoma, heat indices of 105-110 will be
likely across the rest of our area which will prompt another
advisory.  As a result will have a Heat Advisory in effect Saturday
afternoon from noon till 8 PM across all but portions of westcentral
through remaining northwest Oklahoma with heat indices in the 105-
110 degree range.  Could see a return of storms late Saturday across
the panhandles staying west but near northwest Oklahoma.

Our weather pattern changes on Sunday as our ridging breaks down by
the aforementioned trough as it starts digging into our area.  Not
confident if the surface boundary/cold front will un-stall and push
into northwest Oklahoma due to model inconsistencies.  However
increasing cloud cover with the upper ridging moving in should lower
afternoon temperatures closer to seasonably normal although parts of
our southwest could still heat to triple digits (100-102).
Rain/storm POPs will also return in the forecast Sunday evening and
overnight with the trough starting to move in and the surface front
in or near northwest Oklahoma.  So far POPs are highest (40-60%)
across all of western and northern Oklahoma into westcentral
Oklahoma for late Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Troughing will linger across the central US for the early to middle
part of next week, which should keep the worst of the heat at bay
for our region, though it will still be seasonably hot. The coverage
of any shower and thunderstorm activity is unclear during this
period, but with at least weak troughing overhead can`t rule out
isolated shower and storm development Monday through Wednesday.
The upper ridge then appears likely to rebuild over the southern
Plains towards the end of next week, favoring a warming and drying
trend heading into next weekend.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Southerly winds will continue around 10 to 15 mph through the night,
with occasional gusts across northern and western Oklahoma. A few
decaying storms may briefly impact KWWR around midnight, but chances
of storms sustaining that far are low. Some low level wind shear
will impact northern sites before dawn. Winds become gusty again
during the day.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 101  79  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        104  79 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 103  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          105  75 101  74 /   0  10   0  10
Ponca City OK    103  80 100  78 /   0  10  10  10
Durant OK        101  77 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14