095
FXUS64 KOUN 032327
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
627 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Strong/severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight and again
  Friday night/early Saturday

- Slight chance of accumulating snow late Saturday/early Sunday

- Turning cold this weekend with freezing temperatures Sunday and Monday
  mornings

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Early this afternoon, a nearly stationary frontal boundary extended
from the Arklatex southeast into central and southern Texas.  On the
warm side of the boundary, deep rich moisture was observed with
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70S.  To the north in Oklahoma
and western Texas, 40 to lower 50 degree dewpoints were noted with a
northeast to east wind.  Although most of the rain and storms have
moved east of the area, water vapor imagery indicates the leading
edge of a disturbance/stronger flow beginning to impinge on the
Trans-Pacos region.  The RAP moisture profiles are drier with rather
weak mid-level instability than the NAM.  This may result in
additional widely scattered showers this afternoon/evening.

Late this evening and overnight, 850-700 mb flow is expected to
increase substantially north of the surface front in Texas.  This
should again result in scattered to widespread showers and storms.
Elevated instability is expected to be higher generally along and
south of I-44 overnight into early Friday, perhaps farther north and
west.  Therefore, there will be a risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms with a risk of large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will persist Friday morning into perhaps
the early afternoon.  There will be a continued risk of strong to
perhaps severe storms mainly across south central and southeastern
Oklahoma.  By mid to late Friday afternoon, there is a slight chance
the frontal boundary will lift far enough north for near-surface
based convection.  This would mainly be confined to far southeastern
Oklahoma (Bryan and Atoka counties).  If this occurs, there will be
an opportunity for tornadoes, but again, the chances are much better
to our south and east.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late Friday
evening and night.  Better elevated instability is expected to
remain across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma where there
will be a risk of severe storms.  If this occurs, the main hazards
will be hail and perhaps damaging winds.

Saturday is expected to be a wet and rather windy day, as the main
low to our west phases with a northern stream trough.  Surface wind
gusts from the north may exceed 35 to 40 mph.  Given the gusty winds
and temperatures mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, wind chill values
will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s (mainly along and
northwest of I-44)

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible late tonight into parts
of Saturday.  Although weekly rainfall totals could be impressive
for some (5+ inches), currently it appears unlikely rainfall rates
will be high enough for flash flooding.  There is a low to medium
chance of a few creeks or rivers to approach or slightly exceed
flooding across Bryan and Atoka counties.

Model differ on how the low will lift across the southern Plains
late Saturday into Sunday morning.  A more open wave should limit
the chance of accumulating snowfall, while a closed low will
increase the probability.  Currently, there a medium chance (40-60%)
of greater than 1 inch of snowfall across part of northern and
western Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, snowfall is not snow depth.

We will also have a chance of a freeze across northern and western
Oklahoma by early Sunday morning.  Perhaps a better chance of a
widespread freeze will occur Monday morning with a clear sky and
light wind.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The upper low and associated trough will continue to move east
through the weekend with NW flow developing over the region by early
next week. With the pattern shift, the forecast remains dry Sunday
into the middle of next week.

The cool/cold temperatures are expected again Sunday with
temperatures remaining well below average. Highs on Sunday are
expected to reach the 50s across the fa. Another cold night,
although not as cold as Saturday night in some areas, is expected
Sunday night with lows in the 30s across the fa. Some locations will
once again drop to or just a bit below freezing.

Temperatures are expected to warm back into the 60s and 70s next
week with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Deteriorating flying conditions are expected tonight with
widespread MVFR to IFR stratus that will likely persist through
the TAF period.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop across
western north Texas later tonight and lift northeastward across
all the terminals. The highest chance for thunderstorms will be
along and southeast of a KOKC/KOUN to KLAW line. Reductions in
visibility are possible in the most intense thunderstorms.

Northeast winds will back slightly toward the north/north-
northeast through the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  46  55  44 /  90  70  90  90
Hobart OK         59  44  57  41 /  60  90  90  90
Wichita Falls TX  60  48  59  47 /  80  90  90 100
Gage OK           60  41  56  33 /  50  80  90  90
Ponca City OK     57  46  56  43 /  70  70  90  60
Durant OK         61  52  63  51 / 100  80  90 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10