096
FXUS64 KOUN 222009
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
209 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

- Warm weekend.

- Cold front arrives Sunday night with cooler temperatures for
  early next week.

- Next rain chances possibly by Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface ridge will continue to push off to the east, with
troughing along the Rockies slowly strengthening this afternoon.
As a response, the surface pressure gradient will tighten, causing
winds to slowly increase into Saturday morning. With this
southerly return flow, overnight lows will be a little bit warmer
than previous mornings and in the mid 30s to low 40s across the
area.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface troughing along the Rockies will help aid in
strengthening the surface winds on Saturday through Sunday.
Expect a warm up this weekend as mid-level ridging builds in over
the Plains. Most locations will see highs in the 60s on Saturday,
and 70s on Sunday. This southerly flow will also bring in higher
dewpoints relative to what has overspread the region over the last
few days. Overnight lows will be reflective of this moisture
advection and will be much warmer Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

A cold front is still on track to starting pushing through
northern Oklahoma after sunset Sunday evening. Still anticipating
this frontal boundary to remain dry.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Models then bring another storm system toward the southern Plains as
we approach the middle of the week into Thanksgiving day. Currently
both the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF bring a rather strong
cold front south through the area on Wednesday with a low chance of
rain, mainly across eastern Oklahoma with a secondary wave that
could bring a shot of cold rain on Thanksgiving day. Temperatures
may struggle to get out of the 40s Thanksgiving day across the
northern half of Oklahoma. Perhaps even colder the day after.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with variable
high clouds. Otherwise, a south to southeast wind will return
this afternoon into the evening/overnight. Wind speeds today will
be on the light side, but will increase by Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  39  66  53  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         38  67  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  40  72  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           36  65  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     34  65  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         37  69  53  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06