091
FXUS64 KOUN 060350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1050 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1046 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Ongoing heatwave continues into next week.

- Fire weather remains a concern given hot temperatures and
  ongoing drought/very dry fuels.

- Very low chance for rain/storms this afternoon across southeast
  Oklahoma and all of east-central Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday
  afternoons

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Dangerous heating will result in a Heat Advisory for this afternoon
across portions of northern, central, and southwest Oklahoma and
adjacent western north Texas.  All of southcentral through southeast
Oklahoma will be in the Heat Advisory which expires early this
evening.

For today will see scattered areas CU break out during the afternoon
in the moister air mainly near and east of I-35 with increasing high
cloudiness coming off the Central High Plains into northwest
Oklahoma toward the evening hours.  As a result expecting near
maximum afternoon heating with triple digit highs between 100-103
degrees.  Did adjust this afternoons MaxT slightly hotter than the
newest NBM default run to more closer to the previous forecast using
the newer NBM 50th percentile numbers.  Slightly drier air across
western Oklahoma should keep heat indices there below advisory
criteria while the rest of our area could see heat indices between
105-109 degrees.  As a result did trim seven counties in western
Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas out of this afternoons
heat advisory.  Some of the CU across southeast Oklahoma could pulse
up a few weak thunderstorms by late afternoon mixing into uncapped
air which is supported by a few of the CAMs.  As a result will
maintain low 15% isolated storm POPs across a small portion of
southeast Oklahoma in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Upper synoptic flow across the country remains in a blocking pattern
with deep troughing across the western & eastern U.S. and the
blocked ridge over the central one-third of the U.S. The strongest
ridging with a closed upper high will remain over the Southern
Plains keeping our heatwave going with temperatures 10-15 degrees
hotter than normal. Climatically normal average highs across our
forecast area would be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for early
September. Southerly low-level flow/winds will persist through the
short term as a backdoor cold front across Missouri unfortunately
will not make it into Oklahoma at all for Sunday.  Surface moisture
has been on a decrease trend over the last 24-hours as per Mesonet
observation especially across western Oklahoma and adjacent northern
Texas from slightly drier air advecting off the higher plains.
However moister upper 60s dewpoints remain in place across central
Oklahoma to lower 70s in southeast Oklahoma. Of course this moisture
will impact heat indices and our advisory areas as widespread triple
digit air temperatures are expected through Monday.  At least for
now model guidance suggest moisture transport may try to strengthen
in southeast Oklahoma by Sunday increasing heat indices there.

For Sunday, ascension in low-end moderately unstable air ahead of
the aforementioned backdoor front could initiate isolated convection
across eastern Oklahoma by late afternoon so will be adding 20%
storm POPs into east-central through southeast Oklahoma.  Will also
have a Heat Advisory for the afternoon across portions of northern
and southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas to all of
central through southeast Oklahoma for heat indices of 105-109
degrees expected.  Monday looks to be a near repeater of Sunday with
a Heat Advisory although parts of our west may stay out of it with
drier air there.  Will also keep mentionable storm POPs across east-
central Oklahoma from moisture ahead of the backdoor front across
the Missouri Ozarks before it washes out

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

While next week still looks to be dominated by a continued hot
and dry pattern, especially on Tuesday and most of Wednesday, a
pathway for more changeable conditions, including at least low
chances for precipitation, is coming into better view into the
late week.

This comes as a strong upper system rounds the periphery of the
upper ridge into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak
trailing front looks to slide southeastward across the Plains
during this time. The greatest uncertainty remains 1.) how strong
the resultant front is (i.e., able to help foster precipitative
chance?), and 2.) how far south the front makes it before
dissipating. For now, we maintain at least low rain/storm chances
from Wednesday night into Thursday across the northern half of
Oklahoma. Not seeing much potential for a significant cool down,
though daytime highs may run a few degrees below those early in
the week.

Even greater uncertainty exists beyond the end of the period (12th
onward), though most ensemble solutions show the upper ridge
remaining the dominant regional synoptic feature during this time.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Expect VFR conditions to prevail. We added PROB30`s for a chance
of isolated showers or thunderstorms late afternoon into early
evening for areas near and east of the I-35 corridor. Lightning
and wind gusts to 30 mph would be the main hazards. Otherwise,
light southeasterly winds (variable at times this morning) are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  72 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK    100  75 100  75 /   0   0  20   0
Durant OK        102  75 102  76 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-
     011>013-017>020-023>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01