460
FXUS64 KOUN 021140
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday evening
   through Monday. Storms may become severe, especially across
   western Oklahoma and into adjacent portions of western north
   Texas with damaging winds and flooding the primary hazards.

 - Gradual warming trend through the next week with triple digits
   returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Thunderstorm activity across southeast Oklahoma has begun to
diminish early this morning. Additional activity may develop through
the morning hours today but diminish again around mid-morning. A
storm or two could become strong with gusty winds and heavy rainfall
as the main hazards. The upper ridge will continue to spin over Baja
Cali and into northwest Mexico and southern Arizona/New Mexico.
Northeast surface winds will give way to continued "cooler" air and
below normal highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

Convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain this
afternoon/evening with a passing shortwave embedded in the flow
aloft on the northern side of the ridge. Increasing northwesterly
flow will help to steer the storms southeast towards Oklahoma late
tonight. Rain chances are expected to increase late tonight and into
the overnight hours from west to east with the passing shortwave.
The increasing low-level jet overnight across western Oklahoma will
also help aid in storm maintenance. There is still some uncertainty
in how far southeast the complex of storms will persist, but overall
the greatest chances will be across western Oklahoma into adjacent
portions of western north Texas. Overall, storms may develop into a
potential MCS into the early morning hours Sunday with damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall being the primary hazards. PWATs will be
around 1.5" with heavy downpours and the potential for flooding, but
with some steering flow aloft storms will at least be moving and not
stationary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The early morning convection will continue to push southeastward
through the morning, but rain chances will continue as another
shortwave brings increased flow aloft and convection into Oklahoma
from Kansas. Storms will spread southeastward through the afternoon
and evening hours with strong to severe storms capable of damaging
winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall. Additional convection
will develop during the afternoon hours across the higher terrain in
Colorado with additional storms possible overnight Sunday into
Monday from the northwest to southeast. These storms may develop
into another MCS and bring increased chances for damaging winds and
locally heavy rain. Rain chances will diminish from west to east
overnight into Monday morning with no precipitation chances after
noon on Monday.

With rain chances Sunday into Monday morning along with lingering
cloud cover and east-southeast surface winds, temperatures will
remain "cooler" and below average in the 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The remainder of the work week will feature a gradual warming trend
in temperatures and low precipitation chances. The upper ridge will
push eastward Tuesday and spin over New Mexico through much of the
week with north-northwest flow continuing to persist aloft.
Overnight convection from the higher terrain and Plains cannot be
ruled out this week but chances remain low at this time with
uncertainty in the exact timing of embedded shortwaves. The low-
level thermal ridge will strengthen this week with an increase in
850mb temperatures. Subsidence will give way to a return of triple
digit heat by the middle to end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Areas of MVFR ceilings are becoming more widespread across
central, south central and southeastern Oklahoma, with some local
IFR ceilings in southeast Oklahoma. This MVFR stratus is already
affecting areas near KDUA, KOUN and KOKC, and there is enough
potential of spreading west toward KLAW and KSPS and north toward
KSWO to include TEMPO groups. There is still a 20 to 30 percent
chance of MVFR ceilings spreading into the other TAF sites, but
not high enough to include a TEMPO group at this time. The stratus
will hang on into at least the late morning hours across central
and southeastern Oklahoma.

Winds will be relatively light, and generally north/northeast
becoming east/southeast through the forecast period. There will be
the potential of showers and thunderstorms moving into western
Oklahoma (KWWR and KCSM) after 06Z/Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  68  84  65 /   0  10  50  50
Hobart OK         91  69  88  66 /   0  40  60  50
Wichita Falls TX  90  71  92  69 /   0  10  40  40
Gage OK           88  65  83  62 /  10  50  60  40
Ponca City OK     85  65  83  64 /   0  10  40  50
Durant OK         87  69  88  68 /  20   0  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26