913
FXUS64 KOUN 250824
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
224 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

- Windy and colder today.

- Cold front Wednesday brings a colder day for Thanksgiving.

- Widespread hard freeze Friday morning.

- Coldest air of the season arrives next weekend.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

The first of several cold fronts is currently making its was through
the area this morning. This will bring an end to the above normal
temperatures that we have seen recently. Temperatures today
will be some 20 to 25 degrees cooler than yesterday, with portions
of northern Oklahoma remaining in the 40s today.

The gusty north winds will also create some colder wind chills
across much of the area, especially along and north of I-44 where
wind chill values will drop into the lower 30s and mid/upper 20s.
Winds will be slow to diminish through much of the day as lower
level caa continues across the southern Plains.

Winds will go light this evening before shifting back to the south
across western sections of Oklahoma late tonight. These light winds
and dry airmass will allow temperatures to cool quickly this evening
and much of the area will see temperatures flirt with or drop below
freezing by Tuesday morning. Will not go with any headlines this
morning related to possible freeze tonight and let day shift make
final determination as we are now past our average first freeze
across the area and well past our normal growing season.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Some recovery expected Tuesday, wrt temperatures as south winds
return area-wide as cool surface high shifts east. These winds could
become quite gusty by afternoon across the west as lee troughing
occurs and surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of next storm
system. This also keep temperatures warmer Tuesday night ahead of
our next cold front that will make its way south through the area
during the day Wednesday. A nice low level thermal ridge ahead of
the front will allow surface temperatures to warm, at least across
the southern third to half of Oklahoma into north Texas before the
front brings another batch of cooler air to the area. Broad range of
highs expected Wednesday with highs in the 70s south to the middle
50s across the north and possibly falling temperatures there by
afternoon.

Winds likely to increase by late Wednesday and into Wednesday night
as caa increases as low level thermal gradient lags a bit behind the
surface boundary. Still think there is an outside chance of some
very light rain or sprinkles as we go through the night Wednesday
night, but currently the probability of this within the ensemble
members is only about 15 to 20 percent across northwest Oklahoma and
about 5 percent here in central Oklahoma, so current forecast
continues to remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

One of the cooler days we have seen is expected on Thanksgiving day
as the northern two-thirds of the area looks to remain in the 40s
through the day with some lower 50s south. Winds will also add a bit
of a chill as well as wind chills remain in the 30s through the
morning across northern half through the morning.

Currently looks like whoever does not see a freeze Tuesday morning
will see one by Friday morning as surface high settles over the area
and temperatures will fall into the 20s giving most of Oklahoma and
north Texas a hard freeze.

Next front then moves through on Saturday and this one will be more
of Canadian origin and could tap into a bit of Arctic air. So after
a bit of a warm up on Saturday, much colder airmass then moves in
for the second half of the weekend. Some low temperatures by Sunday
morning could drop into the upper teens near the Kansas border.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 938 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected tonight and into Monday, except for
brief MVFR ceilings possible at KDUA Monday morning behind a cold
front. The front is currently across northern Oklahoma and will
clear the remainder of the area overnight. Gusty north winds can
be expected behind the front, with gusty winds continuing into the
day Monday. Winds will then subside around sunset Monday evening,
becoming light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  30  55  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         52  30  55  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  54  33  59  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           49  28  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     49  25  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         60  35  60  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06