653
FXUS64 KOUN 141904
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
204 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 204 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Hot and humid conditions through at least Friday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across the
  western Oklahoma, western north Texas, and portions of central
  Oklahoma.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms across northwestern Oklahoma
  Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. But no significant relief
  from the drought for most areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The fire weather environment continues to be the primary concern
this afternoon into the early evening. Although humidity is not as
low as some typical fire weather events, the gusty winds and dry
fuels still are creating elevated fire weather conditions.

Although the wind speed will decrease somewhat around sunset, the
development of a 40-50 knot low-level jet this evening will still
create gustiness through the evening and overnight, especially
across western and northern Oklahoma where the wind speeds with
the low-level jet are the highest. Humidity will recover tonight
but the winds may still contribute to fire spread with ongoing
wildfires.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Even though the upper ridge axis remains to the east, heights and
thicknesses increase on Tuesday as the ridge amplifies. The 594 dm
500 mb contour builds back over the area on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a
cold front is progged to move into southern Kansas and the
projected placement of the front looks to line up northern and
possibly central Oklahoma to the pre-frontal compressional
warming. So with these two factors, hotter temperatures are
expected on Tuesday.

There is consistent signal of a shortwave moving from the Land of
Enchantment toward the northern panhandles and northwest Oklahoma
Tuesday afternoon. This is expected to aid in thunderstorm
development near the cold front in northwest Oklahoma on Tuesday
afternoon and persist into the evening before the shortwave shifts
northeast and precipitation potential decreases. There will be
some potential for strong or isolated severe storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening and SPC has created a Marginal Risk for severe
storms across northwest Oklahoma.

Have issued a Heat Advisory again for Tuesday across southeastern
Oklahoma, but there is a decent chance that the Advisory will
need to be expanded with a future package, especially across
northern Oklahoma, dependent on how early precipitation is
expected to develop in the northwest and how far east any
cloudiness spreads in association with the approaching shortwave.

Even if the cold front moves into northern Oklahoma late Tuesday,
the front will retreat north on Wednesday morning and yet another
hot day is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

There is high confidence that above-normal temperatures will
persist through at least Friday, reinforced by bias-corrected
probabilistic guidance indicating that even the 10th percentile
remains above normal during this period. Global deterministic
models and their ensemble members are in strong agreement that the
subtropical ridge will remain the primary influence on our
weather.

Ensemble spread increases among the global models and their
ensemble members by the weekend into next week (September 19-21),
which indicates the potential for a pattern change. There is a
chance the subtropical ridge will break down as a mid-level trough
digs across the Plains, driving a cold front southward into the
Southern Plains.

Sunday currently appears to be the most probable timeframe for
the cold front passage. That said, deterministic and ensemble
guidance over the past couple days has shown a distinct trend
toward a slower frontal timing. Probabilistic guidance highlights
this forecast uncertainty, indicating a 20 to 75% probability of
maximum temperatures remaining below 90 deg F on Sunday (20%
southeast to 75% north). The cooler end of guidance reflects a low
to moderate probability (5% southeast to 40% north) of high
temperatures staying below 80 deg F. Nevertheless, a reasonable
chance persists for high temperatures to top at least 90 deg F
(25% north to 80% southeast) should the frontal timing continue to
slow down. The first day of fall is Tuesday, September 22, so
perhaps we`ll see a timely front sometime by then.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through the
entire forecast period. A deepening surface low in the Central
Plains lee of the Colorado Rockies will keep surface winds out of
the south-southwest across our terminals sustained 15-20 kts with
gusts at 20-30 kts through 01Z. After 01Z surface winds will back
slightly more southerly around 10 kts sustained. A strong low-
level jet will be increasing out of the south by 06Z which could
produce low-level wind shear at flight level 015 ft over our
terminals around 35-40 kts. South winds down at the surface may
start getting gusty up around 15 kts by partial mixing into the
low- level jet. By 15Z expecting surface winds to veer more south-
southwesterly around 15 kts sustained while stronger mixing could
result in wind gusts at 20-25 kts.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78 100  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         78 102  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  77 103  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           78 100  68  98 /   0  40  70   0
Ponca City OK     76  99  73  97 /   0   0  20   0
Durant OK         77 103  76 101 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-043-047-048-
     051-052.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ032-043-047-
     048-051-052.

TX...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68