032
FXUS64 KOUN 241657
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1152 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

 - Thunderstorm chances continue into the holiday weekend with a
chance of severe storms each day

 - Heavy rainfall and flooding may occur especially with a cold
front Sunday into Monday

 - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Have updated the forecast with the latest observational and model
trends.

The MCS that moved through eastern Oklahoma has laid out an
outflow boundary that currently extends roughly from Tishomingo
to Davis to Weatherford to just north of Cheyenne. The low-level
jet producing isentropic lift over the outflow boundary has
produced some widely scattered showers this morning over central
Oklahoma, but these have not been very intense.

This outflow boundary is expected to move north today, although
the HRRR may be too aggressive with how far north it moves given
the cloudiness that persists north of the boundary. But clouds are
expected to erode late this morning and early this afternoon
warming the cool side of the boundary mixing out the outflow
airmass, so the boundary should lift north somewhat. We will be
watching this boundary for a focus of storm development later this
afternoon, so where this sets up will be a key to where storms are
most likely to form. Instability will be quite high this afternoon
with CAPE predicted to be over 4000 J/kg, so severe weather is
likely with any storms that form. There will also be a somewhat
higher tornado potential with any storms that are able to persist
on the boundary, especially if winds remain backed (easterly or
southeasterly) on the cool side of the boundary. This area will
likely include central Oklahoma.

Later tonight, many of the 12Z models continue to show a signal of
another mesoscale convective complex moving south-southeast across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Another round of severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible with these
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

At the time of this writing, we`re seeing some elevated convection
in central Oklahoma, ahead of the main complex which is expected to
arrive at the Kansas / Oklahoma border around 2-3AM. The main
complex of storms will sweep through north central and central
Oklahoma into the morning hours with damaging wind gusts being the
primary risk. Southwest extent of this complex is somewhat uncertain.

The aforementioned complex is expected to leave an outflow boundary
in its wake, which in addition to a sharpening frontal boundary and
a dryline in west Texas will provide a focus for more storm
development later today. South of the front, strong instability
(4000-5000 joules) and deep layer shear (40-50 knots) will support
supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a low
tornado threat (particularly along any boundaries). Where those
boundaries will end up is uncertain being dependent on effects from
the earlier MCS. Additionally, upper level support appears marginal
which may limit storm coverage.

As we move into tonight, the low level jet ramps up and isentropic
ascent gets going north of the front, allowing for widespread
showers to develop across northern Oklahoma into Kansas. Again, weak
ridging may put something of a dampener on these chances (several of
the CAMs keep this activity either only along our northern periphery
or outside of our forecast area).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The forecast for Sunday and Monday is messy, but stormy. Upper
pattern becomes more southwesterly with several waves moving
through. Some lingering boundaries will be around, but details will
depend on previous convection. Sunday once again shows strong
instability and shear, giving a comparable severe risk to Saturday
(at least initially). As convection becomes more widespread, heavy
rainfall will start to become more of a concern Sunday night into
Monday.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Once the front is through Monday, precipitation chances taper off
for a bit. Temperatures will be cooler (70s) through midweek. Upper
air pattern continues to look fairly dynamic.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

MVFR stratus will degenerate into a stratocumulus/cumulus field
this afternoon, though cloud bases may very well stay below 3,000
feet. A wind shift will be noted across the I-40 corridor, with
southerly winds to the south and easterly winds to the north.
Storm development is likely along that wind shift this afternoon
between OKC and CSM with associated effects to terminal
visibility/ceilings/winds. Stratus will build in north of the
boundary after daybreak with MVFR to IFR ceilings.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  86  64  75 /  30  50  80  70
Hobart OK         67  88  62  76 /  30  50  80  60
Wichita Falls TX  74  93  68  81 /  20  20  70  70
Gage OK           61  79  55  70 /  30  30  80  50
Ponca City OK     64  76  60  72 /  70  60  90  70
Durant OK         74  91  69  81 /  20  20  70  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04