425
FXUS64 KOUN 221107
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
607 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

 - Warm weather through the weekend.

 - A pattern chance is coming. Turning cooler early next week
   with widespread rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Another warm day is expected with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Dewpoints generally in the 50s and 60s will keep heat index
values near or slightly below air temperatures, except perhaps in
southeastern Oklahoma where dewpoints are a little higher. Mostly
sunny skies and light east to northeast winds are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Weather conditions are expected to be similar through the weekend.
A mid-level low slowly moves across Ontario with a trough
extending down toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Northwest flow
aloft in the Northern Plains helps keep cooler air filtering out
of Canada toward the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Although
the cool air remains northeast of the area, the mid-level ridge
shifts into the far western United States keeping the hot weather
of recent weeks out of the area.

With the ridge shifting west, northwest flow aloft slowly
increases this weekend. With this there is at least some low
potential for showers/thunderstorms coming off the central High
Plains to approach northern Oklahoma on Saturday and Sunday, but
the probability still looks fairly low through the day on Sunday.
Rain chances do begin to increase Sunday night as the mid-level
trough to our northeast amplifies and the northwest flow aloft
builds more strongly into the central Plains allowing a higher
potential of convection to move off the central High Plains into
northern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A stronger wave digging into the west side of the Ontario mid-
level low helps to extend this northern stream trough into lower
latitudes of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Meanwhile the
mid-level ridge across the west loses weakens and heights fall
across the west. This will increase our northwest flow aloft and
keep us in a pattern where we will likely see multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms develop and move into the area from the
northwest. This will also be a much cooler pattern. The high
temperatures will still be quite dependent on how widespread the
precipitation and cloudiness is from day to day, but this looks to
bring very un-August like temperatures to the area. With multiple
rounds of showers and storms, rainfall accumulation over time will
start to add up, so we will be watching for the possibility of
locally heavy rainfall not only with convection in short time
periods, but with the multiple rounds of rain over days next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR category is expected at all terminals through the period. A
light north-northeast breeze will continue today along with
scattered afternoon into evening cumulus.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  69  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         95  68  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           94  65  92  64 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     92  67  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
Durant OK         93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09