102
FXUS64 KOUN 300559
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

 - One more day of heat today as a cold front approaches.

 - Cooler temperatures are in store for Thursday and into the
   weekend.

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms expected from this
   evening through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

If you`re ready to be done with the late-July heat wave we`ve been
going through, then good news: we`re almost there. The entire area
has at least one more day of heat to go through as a cold front
approaches, and then we`ll face a multi-day break.

There`s a little bit of disagreement in the models regarding when
the front reaches the Oklahoma/Kansas border, but it will most
likely be this afternoon or evening. Extreme mixing south of the
front will prevent appreciable surface-based instability from
developing, but 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE are expected north of the
front. This will foster storm development in Kansas during the
afternoon, with chances spreading/propagating southward into
northern Oklahoma during the evening. Single-cell or multi-cell
storm mode is expected with almost no vertical wind shear. It
wouldn`t at all be a surprise if the strongest of those storms are
capable of severe wind gusts given the aforementioned extreme mixing
along and south of the boundary.

To the south of the front, many locations will see their hottest day
of the year so far - maybe a degree or two warmer than Monday was.
This should get highs over 100 for most of the area south of the
boundary. The exception would be the the typical central-to-
southeastern Oklahoma corridor that has generally underperformed on
high temperatures in recent weeks. Here, we will see upper 90s
temperatures with higher humidity. This will leave heat indices into
the 103-107 range. The latest models are much more aggressive in the
frontal intrusion tonight. Northerly winds could push as far as I-40
or south by daybreak. That won`t have a huge impact on temperatures,
but lows could drop by a couple of degrees compared to this morning.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The front will get into the Red River valley during the day on
Thursday. There`s some indication that the boundary could hang up in
that region, with storms redeveloping in southern Oklahoma and
adjacent western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Once again,
wouldn`t rule out gusty or damaging winds with any stronger storms,
as even the mixing-averse NAM shows 1,800 J/kg of DCAPE in the
region. The temperature forecast is an interesting one. NBM suggests
highs near 100 just south of the front in southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas. However, if we get fairly early development of
storms, or the front is faster than anticipated, or we get
anvil/cirrus shading, NBM could bust high very easily. Opted to
shade a little lower with the temperature forecast in that light.

Friday will start off with incredibly un-August-like day on Friday.
Widespread high temperatures in the 80s (ranging into the low 90s in
the southern portion of our area) are expected. We`ll even have some
drier air - dewpoints look to drop into the low 60s across a good
chunk of the area. All in all, it will feel more like late April
than the middle of the summer, so make sure to enjoy it. There are
low storm chances showing up in NBM, but at the moment a focusing
mechanism isn`t really showing itself on Friday. We`ll keep an eye
on that.

Meister
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The cool start to August will continue into this weekend. It
actually looks like we`ll see weak split flow develop in western
north America, with a weak subtropical jet moving onshore from
California and squashing the ridge down into northern Mexico. As
this jet reaches the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening,
it`s a safe bet to assume we see storms develop in the northwest
flow regime off of the high terrain. Those storms could organize
into an MCS and move into northern Oklahoma Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

The ridge will look to move back east a little bit on Sunday - not
close enough to massively influence our temperatures (except for
western north Texas near the Caprock, which could quickly rebound to
near 100), but close enough to bring a hefty slug of northerly flow
aloft into the area. Storm chances may end up being more widespread
during this period thanks to the increased vertical wind shear.

The ridge will edge ever closer to our area Monday and Tuesday.
Interestingly, a trough will become entrenched near the Great Lakes
during this period, fostering unseasonably strong 500 mb flow in the
central part of the country. This adds a whole lot of uncertainty to
this portion of the long-range forecast - if the ridge is further
west, we could continue with near-average temperatures and storm
chances. If it gets further east, another heat wave could commence
as soon as Monday. Regardless, the amplification of the pattern
suggests that the sensible weather will be impactful.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

VFR conditions to continue.

Light winds and clear skies expected overnight. Light southwest
winds with a few afternoon CU expected Wednesday. A cold front
will enter northwest Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon and work toward
the I-44 corridor by the end of the forecast. Some showers and
thunderstorms are possible across northwest tomorrow afternoon and
evening, but chances remain too low to mention in the WWR TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  99  74  92  69 /   0  10  10  30
Hobart OK        101  72  94  69 /   0  10  10  30
Wichita Falls TX 101  75  99  73 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           97  67  82  63 /  20  30  30  30
Ponca City OK     98  72  85  67 /  20  20  20  30
Durant OK         99  77  97  73 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-024>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30