741
FXUS64 KOUN 172311
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
611 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

 - Locally heavy downpours, lightning, and strong to severe wind
   gusts are possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon
   and evening across northern, western, and central Oklahoma.

 - Rain chances fall to near zero starting Friday, with hot and
   humid conditions building into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The quasi-stationary boundary draped from western to north-central
Oklahoma may slowly sag southward with continued shower and
thunderstorm chances lingering over northern, western, and
central Oklahoma this afternoon and into the evening hours. With
a very moist environment in place, locally heavy rainfall will be
the main concern. However, strong to severe wind gusts (up to 60
mph) are possible, as well. Heat index values of 100 to 105 deg
are expected this afternoon for some areas ahead of the boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The mid-level ridge begins to strengthen over the southern plains
as a lee-side trough deepens with the passage of northern stream
shortwaves. As a result, we will see an increase in south winds
and temperatures Friday and Saturday, with dry conditions. Cloud-
cover is anticipated to be much less than today, and daytime
mixing will lower dewpoint temperatures. However, the increased
heat will keep index values around 100 to 105 deg both afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The heat continues to build over our region on Sunday and into
next week as the ridge remains overhead. Widespread heat index
values of at least 105 degrees (Heat Advisory criteria) are
possible beginning on Sunday. Precipitation chances remain less
than 10 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Scattered storms are expected to continue into the evening, mainly
along a few frontal / outflow boundaries that we have in the area.
Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any storms and with
outflow from storms. Outside of convection winds should remain
fairly light. Some lower clouds will be possible in northwest
Oklahoma toward morning.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  97  74  97 /  30   0   0   0
Hobart OK         73 101  73 101 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           69  97  73 100 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     73  96  74  98 /  30  10   0   0
Durant OK         72  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...14