178
FXUS64 KOUN 232331
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Dangerous heat expected to persist most days into at least the
  middle of next week.

- Thunderstorm chances today into Friday, mainly for
  northern/western OK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mid-level ridge is centered over west Texas and a progressive
shortwave crossing Kansas has provided for a few showers over Kay
County this morning. A pseudo-warm front (nearly stationary) is
noted on mesoanalysis over northern Oklahoma and a dryline west of
our FA. Another hot day is expected with high temperatures mostly
reaching the mid-90`s to low 100`s. Moisture return has begun with
southeasterly winds over west-central to southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas, which will yield heat index values of 105 to 110
degrees over portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas until 8 PM.

Dynamic lift ahead of another shortwave may provide sufficient lift
to overcome CIN ahead of the dryline and may yield widely scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over northwest/western
Oklahoma and western north Texas. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with mainly gusty winds and small hail.

Storm chances expand over northern Oklahoma tonight to account for
shower/storms moving in from western Kansas and low-level WAA ahead
of the aforementioned wave. This activity is not anticipated to be
severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are possible over the
northern half of Oklahoma on Friday morning. Activity could linger
over east-central portions of the area through early afternoon. While

Dewpoint temperatures are forecast to be higher tomorrow compared to
today, and while air temperatures will be roughly the same as today,
it will feel hotter. Widespread heat index values of 105 to 110
degrees are expected across the forecast area. A Heat Advisory has
been issued for Friday. There is a chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms over northwest Oklahoma on Friday afternoon with
mainly gusty winds as the main hazard. Low chances shift towards the
I-44 corridor on Friday night.

Hot and humid conditions continue on Saturday with widespread heat
index values up to 110 degrees possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Ridging is forecast to expand over the southern Plains Sunday into
the middle of next week, keeping hot temperatures and mainly dry
conditions in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Highs are
forecast to be generally in the lower to mid 100s across the area
with heat indices 105+ each day through at least the middle of next
week.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The storms in southwest Kansas are expected to decrease and stay
north of KWWR this evening, but there is the potential of them
building down toward KPNC on Friday morning. The storms south of
KCDS will stay well west of KSPS and southwest of KLAW and they
will dissipate this evening. Some stratus with MVFR ceilings will
be possible Friday morning, with the highest chances being the
eastern sites (KDUA, KSWO and KPNC), and will be possible
elsewhere although not with a high enough probability to include
in the TAFs at the other sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  96  78  98 /   0  10  20  10
Hobart OK         76 100  77 100 /  10   0  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  76  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           75 101  75 102 /  20  20  20   0
Ponca City OK     75  94  78  99 /  10  40  30   0
Durant OK         77  95  79  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-
     010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68