120
FXUS64 KOUN 111110
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 556 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

  - Warm weather expected through the weekend.

  - Low (20-30%) chance for rain/storms to return across portions
    of Oklahoma early next week.

  - Winds pick up on Sunday, leading to low end fire weather
    concerns.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Upper ridge in control across the southern Plains today. Meanwhile,
a upper shortwave trough moves through the southern Rockies with
surface pressure falls occurring in the High Plains. This will
increase south winds and aid in warming temperatures will into the
80s and lower 90s this afternoon.

These south winds will continue tonight and with some increase in
clouds from the southwest as moisture streams up into the plains
from the tropical systems off the Baja, temperatures will only fall
off into the 60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

By Sunday a larger shortwave will move through the intermountain
west and into the central and northern Plains. As this occurs lee-
cyclogenesis in the High Plains will result in windy conditions
across the Plains. As the upper trough moves into the Plains an
associated surface front will slide southeast toward the area. Low
level thermal ridge to the south of the front will slide at least
into northwest Oklahoma with warmer 850MB temps across the entire
area. Most of the area will be pushing 90 degrees or better Sunday
afternoon. Somewhat limited surface moisture will also allow
afternoon RH values to drop into the 25-30 percent range.

All this along with lack of recent beneficial rains and developing
drought will result in elevated fire weather conditions across parts
of the area Sunday, especially across parts of the north and west.
However, the availability of the fuels remain in question in some of
these areas as ERC values remain rather low and increasing cloud
cover during the peak heating part of the day should limit the
overall risk.

Tropical moisture will continue to increase from the southwest
Sunday night and some showers and storms may move into parts of the
west before sunrise Monday morning. At the same time the surface
cold front will continue to slide south into the state. Question
will be where is this front located through the day as is will be a
focus for a band of "heavier" rain during the day Monday. Most
likely location for this currently looks to be from west central
Oklahoma into north central Oklahoma, but this has trended further
south over the last day or so.

The front then stalls and gradually weakens Monday night with some
lingering rain potential across the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

As we go through Tuesday into Wednesday the upper ridge begins to
build back northward, although perhaps the ridge axis may be a bit
further to the east this time around. Sensible weather-wise will not
matter as temperatures once again climb well above seasonal norms
and dry conditions are then anticipated through the remainder of the
week.

May see the ridge break down again by the following weekend as
possible pattern change occurs and stronger southwest flow develops
across the central CONUS and stronger storm system may impact the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions to continue.

South winds will increase some today, especially across the west
where some gusts over 20kts expected. Otherwise, some high clouds
today with some mid clouds moving in overnight. Developing llj
will create llws at LAW/CSM/WWR after midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  65  88  68 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         89  65  90  66 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  89  63  91  68 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           86  66  87  61 /   0   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     89  65  90  66 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         88  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30