787
FXUS64 KOUN 121713
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Increasing risk for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and
   localized flooding continues into Sunday.

 - Some severe weather possible today and Sunday with the primary
   threat of wind.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage and
intensity this afternoon as a shortwave trough and multiple MCVs
located over southwest Kansas and western Oklahoma move slowly east.
Expect multiple boundaries, including surface front, to act as foci
for additional development this afternoon. PWAT values of between
1.5 and 2 inches will lead to very efficient rain producing activity
and will likely include the OKC metro by late today into this
evening. With the slow motion of the activity, some isolated
locations could pick up a quick 2 to 3 inches with the heaviest
storms with more general amounts of 0.50-1.00 in.

There will also be sufficient instability (MUCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg)
for a few severe storms this afternoon as well. Large-scale wind
shear(0-6km bulk shear 20-25kts) will not be overly impressive,
keeping most of the storms more pulse-type in nature, although
locally modified/enhanced wind fields around the MCVs may allow for
more organized storms capable of larger hail as well as strong/severe
wind gusts from wet microbursts. However, the flood potential will
be the main concern as we go through the afternoon and into tonight.

May see an overall down tick in the activity overnight, but with
upper shortwave still over the area along with any MCV and weak low
level waa, should see some continuation of showers/storms, with a
shift toward the east and southeast. By this time some weekend
rainfall totals could be in excess of 4 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Although some disagreement remain in the models with respect to the
progression of the shortwave trough, NAM slows it down and keeps it
over the area through the day Monday, while many of the others
continue to show a general eastward progression. With this in mind,
will continue the trend of shifting the precip further east, mainly
impacting south-central into southeast Oklahoma Sunday. Main surface
boundary becomes more ill-defined during the day Sunday and model
QPF amounts remain rather low. However, one caveat, models do not
handle other more subtle boundaries, such as MCV, outflow,
differential heating, as well and if any of these are present on
Sunday, they could act a foci for more robust convection and heavier
rainfall. The high precipitable water values will remain high,
especially south and east of I-44. Otherwise, with the precip and
associated cloud cover, temperatures will be well below normal for
mid-July.

Some influence from upper shortwave and weak waa overnight will aid
in keeping some rain chances going Sunday night into Monday, with
highest chances across central and southern Oklahoma and north
Texas. Although no clear boundaries are present in the models,
precipitable water remain high and any activity will be slow-moving,
so some isolated heavier rainfall amounts are not out of the
question.

With some increase in insolation and less precip we should recover
some with temperatures back in the upper 80s to near 90. However it
does appear that we may stay just below seasonal norms through much
of the upcoming week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The pesky mid-level low finally begins to weaken with a general
zonal mid-level flow across the northern and central U.S. with
weak flow in the south. But the ridge does not build strongly over
the western U.S. or the Plains, so temperatures remain near or
slightly below average for this time of year. The operational
ECMWF does bring a front down into northern Oklahoma on Thursday
as a mid-level wave moves across the northern/central Plains. Even
if this occurs, the front looks to quickly weaken and/or lift back
north into the central Plains, so any significant cooling is
unlikely. But this front could serve as a focus for some storm
potential. Otherwise storm chances will depend on any wave in the
zonal flow aloft that happens to be far enough south to influence
our storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Storms have developed near and ahead of a front that is currently
just northwest of I-44. These storms will bring heavy rain,
occasional drops in visibility, and brief ceiling reductions as
they continue southeastward into the evening hours. The front is
expected to weaken with time and prevailing winds were left under
10 knots. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will remain until
tomorrow morning, when MVFR (and potentially IFR) conditions will
develop with stratus and another round of storms.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  82  69  87 /  70  50  20  40
Hobart OK         67  86  68  90 /  70  30  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  70  86  71  90 /  60  50  30  30
Gage OK           64  86  66  89 /  30  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     68  83  69  87 /  60  50  10  20
Durant OK         72  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ008-009-012>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04