522
FXUS64 KOUN 041802
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
102 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Low rain/thunderstorm chances continue into next week.

- Hot and humid conditions return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

An anomalously moist and weakly capped air mass remains
entrenched across the Southern Plains on this Fourth of July. The
Norman (OUN) weather balloon data had an observed precipitable
water value of 2.20", which is a daily record for 12Z per the SPC
Sounding Climatology.

As a result, we`ll continue to see additional scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms with daytime heating this afternoon.
Not everyone will see rainfall given the limited size of the
showers, but if you happen to get a shower, brief, heavy rainfall
will be the primary hazard given the high precipitable water
values. With a rather high freezing level (~16,000 ft) and shallow
convection, most showers are not expected to become deep enough
to produce lightning. Nevertheless, if a shower does become tall
enough, there will be an attendant cloud-to-ground lightning
threat.

The mix of sun of clouds will keep temperatures cooler than
average with highs generally in the 80s deg F. Some locations near
the Red River could reach 90 deg F with sufficient sun breaking
through the clouds.

Coverage of any ongoing showers/storms should decrease this
evening with the gradual loss of daytime heating. There is a low
chance that remnant showers/storms may approach northwest Oklahoma
late tonight (near or after midnight). No severe weather is
expected with activity.

By late tonight/toward sunrise, additional showers may develop in
tandem with the 925/850 mb low-level jet. The chance looks lower
than this morning; however, given the moist air mass in place, it
seems reasonable to include a chance of rain.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The Southern Plains will remain within a moist and weakly capped
air mass through the upcoming weekend. Preciptable water values
are forecast to gradually decrease, but they`ll still remain
generally above 1.75".

This pattern will result a continued chance of primarily daytime
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Coverage does seem to be more
limited than past days given the lower precipitable water values
and lack of any appreciable synoptic-scale forcing. There is also
chance remnant convection may approach northwest Oklahoma Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

The primary hazard will continue to be brief, heavy rainfall with
the most intense showers/storms. Similar to today, rainfall is
not expected to widespread where everyone will see rain, so there
should definitely be dry periods this weekend.

Temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 80s
to low 90s deg F through the weekend.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

By next week, a ~596 dam mid-level ridge is progged to develop
across the southwest U.S., which will place the Southern Plains on
the northeast periphery of the mid-level ridge. Northwest flow
aloft will result in a continue chance for showers and
thunderstorms--especially across northern Oklahoma--as this is a
favorable pattern for embedded shortwaves and/or remnant High
Plains thunderstorm complexes to move southeastward into the
Southern Plains.

In addition, rising mid-level heights and higher low-level
temperatures (e.g., 850 mb temperatures) will likely result in
hotter, more seasonable temperatures (highs in the 90s deg F) for
July. Given the position of the mid-level ridge to our southwest,
above-average temperatures remain unlikely (e.g., widespread 100s
deg F). Even so, given the humid conditions in place, heat indices
may reach the low to mid-100s deg F across at least southern
parts of the area. Temperatures will also be modulated by the
strength of any thunderstorm complexes (e.g., a stronger complex
that advances farther south may result in lower temperatures).

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Ceilings are gradually improving across the area early this
afternoon, but MVFR conditions remain at many airports. Expect
most of this to become VFR between now and about 20Z, except for
areas where showers bring brief downpours and visibility
reductions. Shower chances will taper off relatively early this
evening. Given the anomalously humid airmass, further MVFR stratus
is expected to develop tonight and remain into tomorrow morning.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  83  71  85  70 /  30  10  20  10
Hobart OK         84  70  87  69 /  40  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  84  72  86  71 /  60  20  20  10
Gage OK           84  68  89  68 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     86  71  87  70 /  30  10  20  20
Durant OK         89  73  90  72 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...04