439
FXUS64 KOUN 242300
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
600 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 556 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

 - Thunderstorm chances continue through the holiday weekend with
   a chance of severe storms each day

 - Heavy rainfall and flooding may occur especially with a cold
front Sunday into Monday

 - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

An outflow boundary persists across the area from southeast
Oklahoma to just south of Norman to north of Cheyenne. This is
slowly lifting north, although this movement is more in western
Oklahoma than central at the moment thanks to the lingering clouds
and cooler temperatures north of the boundary in central Oklahoma.
But this boundary is expected to serve as a focus for storm
development later this afternoon or this evening, most likely in
west central or northwest Oklahoma. Mesoanalysis already shows
4000+ J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE across western Oklahoma with little
CIN left. With this instability, storms that develop will likely
be severe, although storms may not be widespread. Large hail and
damaging winds will certainly be possible, and we will also be
watching some tornado potential especially for any storm that can
persist near the outflow boundary.

Later tonight, there is a decent signal of another mesoscale
convective complex to develop. The synoptic models show this
potential the highest from north central to southeast Oklahoma,
but we may see this a little farther west as well given where the
outflow boundary is likely to be. Severe weather (especially wind)
will be possible with these storms again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The severe weather risk continues. Dryline storms will be possible
in the late afternoon/early evening in the west as a mid-level
trough approaches and heights fall. Although isolated storms will
be possible initially, storms will likely become more numerous and
develop into a complex as the mid-level trough moves toward the
High Plains Sunday evening and Sunday night. Additional storms are
expected to develop along a surface front in northern Oklahoma
late Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening as well and these storms will
also become more widespread with time. Sunday evening and Sunday
night, we will likely see widespread storms with heavy rainfall. A
Flood Watch will likely be necessary tomorrow, but the geography
of the flood potential may depend on where heavy rain falls
tonight and where any residual boundaries are from prior
convection, so we will not issue a Flood Watch yet.

Widespread storms will likely continue into Monday as the primary
mid-level trough moves over the Plains. The most likely area for
widespread precipitation will be in the south as a cold front
moves south through the area, but again the specifics may depend
on any convective boundaries that remain from the prior rounds of
storms. There will again be the potential of heavy rain and severe
weather on Monday, especially in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Once the front is through Monday, precipitation chances taper off
for a bit. Temperatures will be cooler (70s) through midweek. Upper
air pattern continues to look fairly dynamic.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Expect scattered storms to impact much of the area this evening.
Have included this potential for all but SPS/DUA. PNC/SWO could
see chances linger through the overnight before the area sees a
lull in the activity. Along with this convection expect some MVFR
and possible IFR conditions before ceilings and visibilities
improve during the day across much of the area. Exception may be
at PNC/SWO where MVFR ceilings may linger through the day Sunday.
Winds will diminish some this evening from the east and southeast
and then increase some during the day Sunday from the
south/southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  85  63  74 /  30  50 100  80
Hobart OK         68  90  62  75 /  30  50  90  60
Wichita Falls TX  74  93  66  80 /  20  20  80  70
Gage OK           62  77  54  68 /  30  30  90  60
Ponca City OK     64  77  59  71 /  70  60  90  80
Durant OK         73  90  68  79 /  20  20  80  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30