669
FXUS64 KOUN 162237
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
537 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon into Monday near and north
  of a cold front.

- Slightly cooler temperatures expected today and tomorrow north,
  but heat persists in the south.

- Dangerous heat continues through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Cold front just north of the I-44 corridor will continue its slow
progression southward this afternoon and this evening. The front is
expected to be near the I-40 corridor or slightly farther south
across western Oklahoma by late this afternoon and will be a focus
for convective development. Although, many of this mornings CAMs
have backed off to one degree or another on this development, most
have some hint of a few showers and thunderstorms. There is more
agreement of activity developing this evening and overnight north of
the I-40 corridor. Meanwhile the front will continue to move slowly
south toward the Red River. Given the environment late today, any
storm that becomes strong enough will pose a damaging wind risk.
Along with the wind threat, any cloud-to-ground lightning that
occurs will pose a risk of starting wildfires.

The other impact from the front will be some cooling across northern
and especially northwest Oklahoma where temperatures will top out in
the middle to upper 90s. Elsewhere the combination of very hot
temperatures and humidity will result in heat indices reaching Heat
Advisory criteria. The exception outside of northwest Oklahoma will
be across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas,
where drier air will keep heat indices in check.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms across
northern Oklahoma Monday morning, but this activity is expected to
diminish as it moves eastward during the morning hours.

In addition, the front will have stalled near the Red River and will
then begin to wash out and lift back northward during the day. What
is left of the boundary will be focus for afternoon convective
development. The location of where this will be is in question, but
best guess would be from southeast Oklahoma stretching across
central into northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon.

The location of the front will also play a role in where a Heat
Advisory would likely be needed for Monday. With that in mind will
hold off on any heat headlines for Monday and let later shifts hone
in on where the front will be and which area is most likely to reach
advisory criteria. North of the front will have one more day of
slightly cooler temperatures as well as most of that area
remaining in the 90s for highs.

As southwesterly flow in the lower levels return Monday night into
Tuesday, it will bring warmer air back northward and as a result
Tuesdays highs will once again be in the 100-110 degree range. This
southwest flow will also aid in bringing drier air into much of the
the state and north Texas, allowing afternoon RH values to drop into
the 15-25% range. The hot temperatures and low afternoon RH will
elevate the fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The operational runs of the medium-range models are still
suggesting a shift in the pattern with the upper ridge amplifying
in the west and troughing developing from the Great Lakes toward
the Mid-Mississippi Valley bringing northwest flow aloft over the
Plains. With this shift, the operational models bring a cold
front into the area Wednesday night. The main surge of the cooler
airmass pushes into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, so there is still
a question how much cooler the air would be for us. NBM is still
not fully capturing the potential of this cold front has keeps hot
temperatures in most areas late into the week. If there continues
to be consistency in the forecast pattern shift, forecast
temperatures would likely be not-as-hot as the current forecast.
But the ECWMF keeps 594-595 dm 500 mb heights over the forecast
area and then pushes the ridge toward the southern Plains by
Saturday, so this pattern may not bring significant cooling or any
cooling could again be short-lived. We`ll continue to watch the
trends over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of central Oklahoma as a
stalled frontal boundary lingers across the I-40 corridor. These
storms are expected to dissipate this evening after sunset.
Northeasterly winds will be the primary wind direction by tomorrow
afternoon across most of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  98  74 104 /  20  30  20   0
Hobart OK         74 102  73 106 /  20  30  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  76 106  76 106 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           67  95  68 104 /  50  20  20   0
Ponca City OK     72  93  71 102 /  30  30  10   0
Durant OK         77 105  77 106 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13