729
FXUS64 KOUN 242352
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
552 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

- Windy and colder tonight behind a cold front tonight producing
  wind chills.

- Colder Monday night with a widespread freezing across most
  areas.

- Our next cold front arrives Wednesday with colder below normal
  temperatures for Thanksgiving into the start of the weekend.

- Potentially stronger cold front Saturday night bringing in much
  colder Canadian air mass into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

After a mild unseasonably warm day we`ll start to see a cooling
trend begin tonight.  An upper wave moving across the northern half
of the country will be pushing a dry Pacific cold front across our
area tonight. The cold front is currently stretched across the
Central High Plains of southwestern Kansas and is expected to push
into northwest Oklahoma by early evening.  Overall moderate cooling
within this Pacific air mass that starts coming through tonight with
temperatures returning to freezing across northwest Oklahoma.
However a wind chill will make it feel colder tonight. Brisk north
winds at 20-25 mph will produce wind chill values well in the 20s
across northern and western Oklahoma to the 30s across the rest of
our area.  The NBM default has been persistently weak with the wind
strength behind the front so increased the speeds late this evening
through the early morning hours using the NBM 90th percentile winds
nudged 100%.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Windy conditions will persist through the latter half of Monday
morning but starts decreasing by the afternoon as surface high
pressure starts building across the Central Plains starts weakening
the pressure gradient across our area.  With the cold front well
through our area pushing across northern Texas, it will be a cooler
Monday afternoon with below normal highs in the 50s while northern
Oklahoma may struggle to even reach 50 degrees.  Cirrus will
continue to increase in our zonal flow aloft further limiting
afternoon solar heating.  High surface pressure then builds in
Monday night with winds going light and variable to calm.  Although
high cloudiness will linger, conditions will still favor strong
radiational cooling Monday night with a more widespread freeze
across our area as far south near the Red River.  Northern and
western Oklahoma will likely go subfreezing in the mid to upper 20s
while southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas may hover just
above freezing with slightly moister air/higher dewpoints in place.
Also keep in mind that Mesonet 2-inch depth soil temperatures are
still rather warm in the 50s.

South winds make a brief return on Tuesday starting a two-day
warming trend before our next cold front passage.  However still
seeing cooler than normal high temperatures for Tuesday afternoon
and not as cold (40s) overnight with breezy south winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Could see a broad range of temperatures on Wednesday as surface
boundary takes shape just north of the area and drops quickly south
during the day. South of this front, temperatures will respond to
the south winds will temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s.
Further north temperatures may make it into the 50s before possibly
falling temperatures Wednesday afternoon.

Main upper wave still makes its way east across the southern Plains
Wednesday night and not completely out of the question to see some
light rain, however current forecast remains dry. Many areas will
not climb out of the 40s Thursday or Friday before a bit warmer day
expected Saturday. However, this looks to be short-lived as yet
another cold front sweeps south through the area Saturday. This
front may tap into more Canadian and possibly Arctic air and could
bring the coldest temperatures of the season to the southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most sites, though some
brief MVFR ceilings are possible Monday morning across southeast
Oklahoma behind a cold front that will cross the entire area
tonight. Winds will become gusty from the north behind the
boundary, with winds only expected to gradually decrease during
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  41  50  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         40  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  46  55  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           32  49  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     39  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         53  63  35  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...08