999
FXUS64 KOUN 070349
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1049 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1028 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

 - Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening across
   the southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

 - Additional storms chances continue through the remainder of
   the week.

 &&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The widespread showers and storms that moved into the area this
morning are continuing to push east-northeast out of the area.
Lightning and gusty winds are the main threats with storms due to
weak elevated instability across southern and central Oklahoma.
Additionally, strong gusty winds of up to 40 to 50 mph are possible
in the wake of the showers this afternoon with the development of a
"wake low".

The potential for additional storms this afternoon and evening is
becoming more unlikely given the aftermath of this morning`s
convection, along with the observed location of the surface low. Any
surface based instability is expected to remain south of our area,
which drops the potential for any tornadoes tonight. However, the
axis of elevated instability will remain across portions of southern
Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Clear skies near Lubbock and
down to San Angelo will continue to clear slowly to the northeast
with the HREF depicting broken low clouds as far north as western
north Texas this afternoon, which could create a differential
heating boundary. Thus, if any storms were to develop this afternoon
along this boundary, they would push northward into western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma later this evening. Main concern with
these strong to potentially severe storms would be large hail and
damaging winds. If a storm develops, the instability weakens with a
northward extent and lead to weakening storms as they approach
central Oklahoma.

Showers and weak storms will also be possible across northwest
Oklahoma this evening and overnight with lift from the approaching
upper low. This activity is expected to remain weak and mostly in
the form of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The widespread showers and storms that moved into the area this
morning are continuing to push east-northeast out of the area.
Lightning and gusty winds are the main threats with storms due to
weak elevated instability across southern and central Oklahoma.
Additionally, strong gusty winds of up to 40 to 50 mph are possible
in the wake of the showers this afternoon with the development of a
"wake low".

The potential for additional storms this afternoon and evening is
becoming more unlikely given the aftermath of this morning`s
convection, along with the observed location of the surface low. Any
surface based instability is expected to remain south of our area,
which drops the potential for any tornadoes tonight. However, the
axis of elevated instability will remain across portions of southern
Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Clear skies near Lubbock and
down to San Angelo will continue to clear slowly to the northeast
with the HREF depicting broken low clouds as far north as western
north Texas this afternoon, which could create a differential
heating boundary. Thus, if any storms were to develop this afternoon
along this boundary, they would push northward into western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma later this evening. Main concern with
these strong to potentially severe storms would be large hail and
damaging winds. If a storm develops, the instability weakens with a
northward extent and lead to weakening storms as they approach
central Oklahoma.

Showers and weak storms will also be possible across northwest
Oklahoma this evening and overnight with lift from the approaching
upper low. This activity is expected to remain weak and mostly in
the form of showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The upper low will be to the north over central Kansas tomorrow with
some upper level forcing across central and into eastern Oklahoma.
Clouds will break and clear through the afternoon hours with warming
surface temperatures. Afternoon scattered storms are possible across
Oklahoma, with modest instability giving way to the potential for a
strong to severe storm or two. Main threats will be large hail and
damaging wind gusts. However, a weak cold front from the north
through the afternoon and evening hours may also provide additional
lift for storm development. Hodographs initially are straight, which
could indicate more multicell structure. However, later into the
evening near or after sunset, there may be small low-level shear
values present with a very low tornado potential (more specifically
along or right ahead of the front).

Overall rain chances overnight Wednesday will be south of I-44 and
east of I-35. Shower and storm chances will continue into Thursday
across northern and central Oklahoma, but anything that develops
will be weak with lightning, small hail, gusty winds the main
hazards at most.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Showers and a few storms may linger into Friday with a dry forecast
for Saturday and Sunday.  A few models develop a closed low as the
trough axis drifts southward over the weekend.  There is an outside
chance this could occur close to eastern Oklahoma. This would
result in at least a better chance of clouds for parts of
southeast Oklahoma this weekend. Although still dry early next
week, warmer to perhaps very warm temperatures will return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Showers and areas of drizzle will continue overnight with IFR
conditions at most sites. Much ofthe morning is expected to be dry
with gradually improving visibility and ceilings rising to MVFR
during the afternoon. Some showers/storms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon north of I-40. Winds will remain light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  71  53  69 /  40  60  40  30
Hobart OK         53  70  50  70 /  30  40  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  57  75  54  73 /  10  10  20  10
Gage OK           49  66  46  69 /  70  70  20  10
Ponca City OK     55  67  53  68 /  70  80  40  50
Durant OK         60  77  57  74 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30