139
FXUS64 KOUN 201031
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
531 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

- Storm chances continue this morning and early afternoon before
  ending later today.

- Quieter day on Monday with warmer temperatures.

- Daily chances for showers and storms beginning on Tuesday.



&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

See previous discussions regarding this morning`s severe/hydro
event prior to daybreak.

Cyclogenesis will occur this morning across central Oklahoma as the
compact upper-level low sweeps through. Given the widespread storms
this past night, the mid-60s dewpoints will remain limited to the
Red River Valley, but mid-50s dewpoints will reach up to the OK/KS
border. CAMs are in good agreement that an arc of shallow convection
will develop along the Pacific front as it rapidly sweeps east of I-
35. Instability will be limited, but wind profiles will favor a
gusty wind/brief tornado threat across southeast Oklahoma where
richer boundary-layer moisture exists.

The arrival of the Pacific front will signal drier air coming in
from the west and the long-awaited conclusion to this weekend`s rain
event. Heights will rise through tonight as a subtropical ridge
tries to become dominant across the region. Highs today will
generally be in the 60s, and with drier air coming in, lows will be
able to get into the 40s tonight.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Zonal flow remains on Monday on the periphery of the subtropical
ridge. Pressure falls will begin in the afternoon across the Central
High Plains, so southerly winds and temperatures warming well into
the 70s can be expected across our area.

The mid-level flow pattern becomes very nebulous by Tuesday with the
primary trough moving through the northern Plains. With that said,
there will be about 20-25 knots of 500 mb flow from the southwest.
For the first time in 2025, the moist sector will likely extend west
of the 100th meridian. NBM PoPS between 00Z and 06Z on Wednesday are
rather impressive for a dryline setup, reaching 80 percent. While
this does seem a bit high, the presence of a 40 knot LLJ will likely
promote upscale growth and eastward propagation of whatever storms
do form out on the Caprock.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Subtle flow regimes don`t tend to lend themselves to crashing cold
fronts. It seems plausible that a nocturnal MCS on Tuesday night
creates a cold pool that pushes the deep moisture south of our area,
but otherwise mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints will remain across our area
with the dryline in the Panhandles on Wednesday. That means another
round of storms, possible severe weather, and potentially increasing
hydro issues.

The mid-level flow gets a little stronger on Thursday, and there`s
an indication that a synoptic-scale frontal boundary will start to
impinge on at least the central Plains. Rain and storm chances will
continue on Thursday and Friday, but after that the pattern gets
murkier.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Main precipitation shield is now making its way to I-35 and points
east with drying conditions across much of the area. One more band
of showers and storms will attend a Pacific front later this
morning that shifts winds to gusty westerly behind it. After that,
precip chances drop to zero and skies will become VFR, with
calming winds after sunset.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  45  75  53 /  80   0   0   0
Hobart OK         65  44  77  52 /  80   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  47  79  53 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  41  79  52 / 100   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     61  41  77  52 /  90   0   0   0
Durant OK         72  49  78  54 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ008-012-013-018>020-
     023>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04