896
FXUS64 KOUN 101744
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - Dangerously hot and humid conditions continue today before a
   gradual "cool down" into early next week.

 - Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening across
   northern Oklahoma.

 - Damaging wind gusts, a tornado or two, and flooding are
   possible with storms this evening into the overnight hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The base of a mid-level trough will continue to move eastward
this afternoon, making its way closer to our area. A cold front is
currently draped across northwestern and portions of northern
Oklahoma, and into Kansas. A shortwave will round the base of the
mid-level trough and will be the focal point for thunderstorm
development this evening across the TX/OK panhandles. This system
is expected to move towards the east through the evening and into
the overnight hours. The downstream environment will support a
multitude of potential hazards including but not limited to:
damaging winds, a tornado or two, and flooding concerns.

Damaging winds:

Damaging winds will be the primary hazard as the line of storms
moves across the northern third of the area. Sufficient
instability and shear will help to maintain a mature line of
storms, capable of producing winds in excess of 70 mph. As the
line moves to the east, it will eventually become outflow
dominant, with winds still strong enough to produce 40-50 mph wind
gusts overnight.

Tornadoes:

Given the sufficient low-level moisture that is in place ahead of
the aforementioned boundary, in addition to the backed low-level
flow, a few tornadoes along the leading edge of the line of storms
are possible. These will be especially possible if the line of
storms is still in a mature stage and not outflow dominant. When
the line does become outflow dominant as it moves to the east, the
tornado threat will be much lower. Right now, the highest
likelihood for any tornadic activity will be across northwest
Oklahoma.

Flooding:

The ambient environment will be supportive of very efficient
rainfall, especially across north central Oklahoma where PWAT
values are expected to be between 1.75 - 2 inches. Numerous rounds
of showers and storms are possible across this area this evening
into the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are
possible, with much of that potentially falling within a short
amount of time. Flash flooding will be the primary threat across
north central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours. A
flood watch has been issued from 00z - 12z Monday to account for
this threat.

Bunker



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Additional thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon into
Tuesday as the main forcing sweeps across the area. A few of these
thunderstorms will have the potential for strong to potentially
damaging wind gusts, especially across portions of western and
southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Given the lack of
deep-layer shear, storms will exhibit more pulse-like behavior.
Afternoon highs on Monday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Sunday,
especially across the northern half of the area where cloud cover
is expected.

Any thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through the
night Tuesday into Tuesday morning, but should decrease in
coverage/intensity into Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs will be a
few degrees cooler than Monday, with highs generally in the upper
80s to low 90s.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Near or slightly below average temperatures will continue for much
of the middle to end of next week as troughing over the central US
only slowly lifts out. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm
each day, but overall storm coverage should be lower than Monday
and Tuesday. Ridging will begin to build over the southern US as
we head into next weekend but as of now it appears to be centered
far enough from the area that we could see low chances for
showers and storms continue into the weekend along with warmer
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

While VFR category is forecast to generally prevail during the
period, evening and overnight convection will introduce potential
for lowered category, especially at northern Oklahoma terminals.

In the meantime, occasionally gusty south-southwesterly surface
winds and passing mid-clouds will continue across Oklahoma and
western-north Texas. By this evening (~22-00 UTC/11th), scattered
convection is expected to develop across west-central into
northern Oklahoma. Additional development is expected to evolve
over time, including the potential for an organized linear band
of thunderstorms moving from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle across
northern Oklahoma through daybreak Monday. Generally PROB-30-like
coverage is expected until this occurs early on Monday morning
(after ~04-05 UTC). Gusty and erratic winds will be likely
near/beneath thunderstorms. More widespread VFR conditions are
expected by the late morning Monday as convection/precipitation
dissipates and/or moves eastward.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  93  71  90 /  30  30  40  30
Hobart OK         71  94  68  90 /  30  30  50  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  96  71  92 /  10  20  20  20
Gage OK           65  88  64  88 /  70  30  60  20
Ponca City OK     70  90  70  89 /  60  50  50  30
Durant OK         75  96  73  94 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-012-013-
     018>020-023>048-050>052.

     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday morning
     for OKZ006>008-011>013.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09