892
FXUS64 KOUN 051050
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

- Low rain/thunderstorm chances continue into next week.

- Hot and humid conditions return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

This high moisture (PWATs of 1.8 to 2 inches through the I-40
corridor) driven pattern with little in the way of focusing
mechanisms continues Saturday. This will result in abundant cloud
cover and isolated showers and storms across south central Oklahoma
during the afternoon. Temperatures will primarily be in the 80s
across the region, though some 90s may nudge into northwest Oklahoma
where cloud cover will be less. A few CAMs suggest storms making
another run at northwest Oklahoma late tonight, though chances
appear low.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Sunday and Monday look fairly similar as the pattern only gradually
shifts. Low chances for diurnally driven showers and storms (focused
mainly along the moisture axis in the southeast); Nocturnal
convection approaching northern Oklahoma from the Rockies during the
overnight periods (aided by developing northwest flow), and below
normal temperatures gradually approaching normal.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The long term will be dominated by northwest flow, putting a bit
more emphasis on the potential for decaying storm complexes to
affect northern Oklahoma during the overnight / early morning
periods. Diurnally driven chances trend downward as PWATs continue
to decrease.

Heat will gradually increase to near normal under the influence of
the nearby upper high (over southwestern U.S.), with heat indices
reaching to the century mark, including some areas near 105 degrees
across southeastern Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Widespread low stratus will continue to promote lowered category
(MVFR/IFR) at most terminals this morning before slow improvement
to predominately VFR conditions is forecast, similar to previous
days.

Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorm development looks to remain
focused in a corridor from north Texas into south-central
Oklahoma, with low probability impact at KSPS/KLAW/KOUN during the
afternoon and evening. Brief heavy rainfall/reduced vis would be
expected if a thunderstorm impacts a terminal.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  70  87  71 /  10  10  20  10
Hobart OK         88  70  89  70 /  10   0  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  86  71  88  72 /  10  10  20  10
Gage OK           90  68  91  67 /   0  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     88  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20
Durant OK         90  73  91  73 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09