978
FXUS64 KOUN 291832
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
132 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
  through the week, with highest chances Monday and Tuesday.

- Humid conditions continue, with heat indices near 100 degrees
  most afternoons.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Isolated diurnally driven storms will be possible (10-20% chance)
this afternoon and evening. These will be pulse-type thunderstorms
with some downburst potential. The upper level high will keep the
higher chances north and west; additionally, an MCV currently moving
northeast through north central Oklahoma may provide some local
enhancement to thunderstorm chances.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible (30-50% chance) as a cold
front surges south toward the Oklahoma Kansas border. These will
also have a low potential for some strong to severe winds.

Otherwise, expect a hot and mostly sunny day with heat indices
mainly in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The cold front will push into Oklahoma early Monday morning,
reaching a southwest to northeast orientation through central
Oklahoma by peak heating. Scattered showers and storms are expected
to develop along the front through the early morning as it surges
southeastward, with diurnally enhanced redevelopment possible
during the afternoon and evening (mainly south central Oklahoma
through western north Texas). These afternoon storms will carry a
low risk for strong downbursts and localized flooding.

Storms will gradually shift southward Monday night. Tuesday may see
some lingering chances for rain over southern Oklahoma and north
Texas as we start to lose the focusing effects of the front.

Heat indices in the upper 90s to the lower 100s are again expected
on Monday (though northwest Oklahoma may be cooler with the passage
of the cold front). Tuesday will be a relatively cool day with
apparent temperatures about 4-8 degrees cooler across most of the
forecast area.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

By midweek the front is forecast to dissipate as upper ridging
rebuilds to our south and east. Rain chances decrease during this
period as forcing becomes more nebulous across the area but do not
disappear altogether as a moist and weakly capped airmass remains in
place. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages, ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, with heat indices up to 100
degrees.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. There is a low chance for
isolate/widely scattered showers/storms this afternoon/evening.
Chances will increase overnight as a line of showers/storms moves
into northern OK. Rain chances will spread southward into Monday
morning as the line moves across portions of the area. Some of the
storms could produce strong variable wind gusts. Otherwise, winds
will generally be from the south and southwest until a boundary
moves into the area tomorrow morning causing winds to shift
towards the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  92  71  86 /  20  40  60  20
Hobart OK         72  94  69  89 /  20  30  60  30
Wichita Falls TX  76  95  71  90 /  10  20  50  20
Gage OK           68  89  66  85 /  40  40  40  20
Ponca City OK     71  91  68  87 /  50  40  30  10
Durant OK         75  95  73  92 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25