759
FNUS76 KOTX 160034
FWSOTX

Spot Forecast for Upper Smith...IDCDC
National Weather Service Spokane WA
534 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 PDT on July 15.
.DISCUSSION...

Despite increased moisture across North Idaho, RH recoveries will
be poor to fair Wednesday night. Temperatures will trend around 4
degrees warmer and RHs 3-5 percent drier for Thursday. A low-end
(10 percent) risk for thunderstorms will be present this evening
with even lower CWR values. Tomorrow, thunderstorm risk increases
with the greatest chances for thunderstorms at the fire location
late Thursday afternoon into the early evening. During this
timeframe, thunderstorms approaching from the south-southwest may
hold together and reach the fire location. These showers and
storms will be capable of gusty, erratic winds. Outside of the
thunderstorm wind potential, winds at the fire location will
remain light and be terrain driven after sundown tonight, then
become breezy on Thursday.

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
***************************************************************
Forecasts for 20 foot wind speeds (valleys and ridge tops) are
10 minute averages reflecting RAWS wind.
***Ventilation Index is derived from transport wind
   multiplied by the mixing height divided by 100.
   Categories: low (< 200), moderate (200-500),
   high (500-800), and very high (> 800).
***************************************************************

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Haze.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of lightning.10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80-84.
Min humidity........32-36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-northwest winds 3-5 mph.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6-10 mph.
Ventilation Index...Moderate (492).

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear. 10 percent chance of
                    thunderstorms before 2300.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of lightning.10 percent in the evening decreasing to less
                    than 5 percent after 2300.
Min temperature.....Around 59-63.
Max humidity........52-56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 3-5 mph shifting southeast
                    with similar speeds after 0100.
Mixing height.......Falling to 500 ft AGL around 2000.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6-10 mph in the evening shifting
                    southwest 3-6 mph after 2100.
Ventilation Index...Moderate (498) decreasing to low (25)
                    overnight.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight (15-20 percent) chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of lightning.10 percent in the morning increasing to 15
                    percent after 1100, then increasing further
                    to 20 percent after 1700.
Max temperature.....Around 84-88.
Min humidity........29-33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East-northeast winds 4-6 mph in the morning
                    increasing to 8-11 mph after 0900. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Inversion lifting around 0900. Mixing height
                    increasing to 9000 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 4-7 mph in the early morning shifting
                    southeast 6-9 mph after 0800, then becoming
                    southwest again 20-25 mph after 1300.
Ventilation Index...Moderate (348) increasing to high (703) in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...RFKS
Requested by...TB
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617435.0/OTX
.DELDT 07/15/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL idcdc@firenet.gov