695
FNUS76 KOTX 220355
FWSOTX

Spot Forecast for Alder Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Spokane WA
855 PM PDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 PDT on July 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A band of showers will pass over the fire between 2100-2200 tonight
and again early Tuesday morning between 0400-0600.  Rainfall amounts
will range from 0.01-0.10".  Cumulus clouds will build Tuesday morning
with a 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms between 1100-1500.
Winds will largely be from the northwest, light in the morning then
increasing in the afternoon and evening.  High pressure builds in for
Wednesday delivering warming temperatures, dry conditions and light
terrain driven winds.  The fire is expected to be sheltered from the
upvalley winds in the Methow however any fire activity exposed to the
Methow Valley could experience more of a light southeasterly wind.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    1100-1500.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of lightning.30 percent.
Max temperature.....80.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable to northwest winds 1 to 4 mph in the morning
                    becoming northwest 6 to 8 mph gusts to 15 mph
                    after 1200.  Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 mph.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....56.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph gusts to 16 mph in the
                    evening decreasing after 2200 2 to 5 mph.  Winds
                    becoming downslope/downvalley 1 to 3 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL falling to near surface.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....86.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Upslope/upvalley or northeast/northeast 3 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...SB
Requested by...Justin Jones
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518397.0/OTX
.DELDT 07/21/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL justin.jones3@usda.gov