449
FXUS66 KOTX 132339
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
439 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Haze and areas of smoke continues, with some improvement
  possible in some areas due to gusty north to northeast winds
  into Thursday.

- Red Flag Warning has been issued for scattered showers and
  thunderstorms for the eastern Cascades through Thursday
  evening.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system skirting the region will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Saturday to portions of
Central and Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Most
of the region will see drier weather Thursday through the
weekend except for a chance of showers and thunderstorms
primarily in the mountains. Unsettled weather continues into
next week with a trough approaching the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: The shortwave that brought showers to the region
yesterday has moved out of the area. However, lingering
instability with CAPE values 200-500 J/kg will bring a chance at
continued afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The east slopes
of the Cascades have the largest chance (20 to 30 percent) at
thunderstorms. Main impacts with these thunderstorms will be
isolated heavy downpours, fire starts due to lightning, and
outflow wind gusts up to 30 mph due to 500-600 J/kg of DCAPE.
Isolated heavy downpours especially in steep terrain and near
burn scars bring the chance of debris flows. As such, a Red Flag
Warning is valid for the east Cascades through 10pm this
evening.

Friday through Wednesday: The trough over the area will
retrograde westward off the coast due as the offshore low moves
northward. This will stay in roughly the same place through
Tuesday of next week, and will result in mostly southwesterly
flow through these days. Instability continues to ramp up each
afternoon and evening due to warming temperatures and continued
higher than normal PWATs (120-150 percent of normal). Main
things to keep an eye on will be any small shortwaves that may
move through over the weekend. Right now, it looks as though the
SE end of Spokane County may experience a quick thunderstorm or
two on Saturday as a shortwave moves in. On Monday through
Tuesday, a trough will drop down over the state of Washington.
While much of the convection prior to this will be mostly
confined to the mountains and ID Panhandle, thunderstorm chances
become more widespread on these days. Due to impacts from these
upcoming thunderstorms being very similar to those seen
yesterday and today, we`ll continue to monitor each day for fire
weather concerns associated with lightning and gusty winds.

Wednesday through Friday: Cluster analysis and long-term models
remain in disagreement over whether we will continue seeing a
cooler and wetter pattern or transition to a warmer and drier
pattern. Roughly half of the clusters show much of the PNW in a
drier and warmer pattern to end next week, while the other half
shows us continuing to see lower heights. This will depend on
whether the low off the west coast strengthens or dissipates.
Overall: expect unsettled weather conditions to continue with
chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in mountain
areas. Temperatures will remain very close to or just below
normal through the next week with only Minor HeatRisk expected.
/AS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: VFR to locally MVFR conditions will continue the next
24 hours with areas of smoke and haze. Winds will be out of the
north to northeast, occasionally gusty this evening before
slackening. THe best potential for haze and smoke that may
reduce conditions to MVFR will be near KEAT and other Cascade
airports. T-storms possible around the mountains through
evening. Additional showers and t-storms possible Friday
afternoon, near the Cascades and southeast WA and the ID
Panhandle mountains, largely away from TAF sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals, but
low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Low confidence in
thunderstorms at KEAT this evening and again Friday and near
KLWS Friday afternoon, but this is possible alternative scenario.


-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        54  82  54  86  55  88 /   0  10   0   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  81  53  86  56  87 /   0  10   0   0  10   0
Pullman        47  82  47  86  49  87 /   0  10   0   0  20   0
Lewiston       62  87  59  91  60  91 /  10  10   0  10  40  10
Colville       41  80  43  84  45  86 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      45  76  46  81  48  83 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        51  77  51  82  54  84 /   0  30   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     57  86  57  89  57  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      65  84  64  87  65  89 /  20  30  10  10  10  10
Omak           56  85  56  88  59  89 /  10  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western
     Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for East Portion
     of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central
     Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone
     698).
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$