898
FXUS66 KOTX 281716
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1016 AM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trending much warmer Sunday through mid next week
  including Moderate HeatRisk Monday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures trending cooler but still warm Thursday and
  Independence Day

- A few mountain showers or thunderstorms possible middle of
  next week otherwise little to no precipitation forecast next 7
  days

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will trend much warmer Sunday through the middle of
next week as high temperatures warm into mainly the 90s on
Monday and mid 90s Tuesday with a few areas near 100 degrees.
Temperatures will cool slightly for the middle to end of next
week but will remain above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Ensembles continue to be in excellence
agreement that an upper ridge will build over the western US
through Tuesday bringing high confidence in a rapid warm up.
Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days as 850mb temps warm
to 23-26C, translating to valleys highs in the 90s, with the
hottest locations near 100F. This will result in moderate HeatRisk
across the region, impacting most individuals sensitive to heat,
especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration.

Tuesday Night through Independence Day: The forecast continues to
look warm and mainly dry with slightly cooling although there are
some forecast details still to be ironed out. One is
temperatures on Wednesday. The Canadian and ECMWF ensembles
suggest Wednesday could be as hot as Tuesday, or just 1-2
degrees cooler. It all had to do with two features of interest.
The first is a low along the CA coast drawing up moisture into
Oregon on Tuesday, that potentially gets picked up in the
southwest flow, reaching SE WA into the ID Panhandle Tuesday
Night into Wednesday. The second is the low in the Gulf of
Alaska. 40% of the clusters show a sharper short wave moving
into British Columbia, providing added cooling across the Inland
NW and breezy winds. The other 60% show only a weaker wave and
only slight cooling by Thursday. It`s also possible if the
stronger scenario verifies that the threat of elevated
convection expands into more of Eastern WA on Wednesday. Given
the warm and dry low levels heading into mid week, and
uncertainty regarding convection potential, maintained the low
5-15% POP`s from the NBM supporting a mainly dry forecast but
wouldn`t be surprised to see some expansion of a thunderstorm
chance for mid week. Given the drying out of fuels any lightning
would be a concern for fire starts. Heading into Thursday and
Independence Day, there again remains some uncertainty but
approximately 80% of the ensembles support a warm and dry
forecast. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be breezy in
the afternoon, although speeds will be less than previous
afternoons with gusts up to 20 knots.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
of VFR conditions for all TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        79  52  86  57  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  77  53  85  56  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        75  48  84  52  91  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       85  58  92  62  99  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       78  43  85  48  92  52 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      75  48  84  51  90  55 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        73  55  83  59  90  64 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     84  53  91  57  98  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      83  59  90  66  97  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           83  53  90  59  96  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
ID...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.

&&

$$