122
FXUS66 KOTX 132312
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
412 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions into this evening due to
  windy and dry conditions

- Cooling trend Thursday through end of week. A 30% chance for
  wetting rains in the Columbia Basin Friday night increasing to
  a 50% chance over northeast Washington and North Idaho.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible over the weekend.into Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions with critical fire weather conditions will
continue into the early evening with a cold front passage.
Temperatures cooling to below normal Thursday into the weekend.
An anomalous plume of moisture moving into the region off of
the eastern Pacific will bring the potential for wetting rains
late Friday into early Saturday. Showers will remain over the
weekend with the potential for Isolated thunderstorms. Then
drying and warming back up to near normal next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night: A dry cold front will push across
the region this evening. Winds will remain gusty until sunset
and then relax overnight as the inversion sets in. Conditions
are dry with relative humidity values down to between 15-20%
with critical fire weather conditions ongoing. Expect these
conditions to continue until RHs recover by 8-9 PM this evening.
Thursday will be a breezy day with southwest winds, but not
nearly as gusty as today. Temperatures will also be cooler with
highs dipping down into the 80s. This cooling trend will
continue into weekend.

Big changes are on the horizon with this trend toward cooler
temperatures. A deep upper level low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska directing a potent atmospheric river into the
Northwest. This is a highly anomalous moisture plume with
origins traced back across the Pacific Ocean to Japan. P-wats
may increase to around 1.5 inches, which is approaching record
territory for this area. There`s a good possibility that the
moisture available will be within the top 10 recorded for
Spokane. What is of some question is how much forcing will there
be to ring out this moisture across the Inland Northwest.
Models indicate a weakening frontal band that slowly sags
northwest to southeast across the region Friday night into
Saturday morning. Western Washington looks to do well with
favorable frontal dynamics, but it may begin to lose its punch
and it pushes east of the Cascades into the Idaho Panhandle. The
Cascade crest is expected to see near an inch or more of
rainfall. Northeast Washington and the northern Idaho Pahandle
will see the potential for around a half an inch of rain and
good soaking rain. There is a 30% chance for at least a tenth of
an inch of rainfall over the Columbia Basin. Rain will be
beneficial for the region and help mitigate fires burning across
the Northwest. Smoke will continue to be an issue until the
rain comes. The HRRR model shows more smoke drifting across
eastern Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle from a large
fire in Olympic NP and one burning on Vancouver Island. These
will keep skies hazy with smoke and potential result in a
degradation of air quality in spots.

Saturday through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will build
from the Four Corners area over this weekend. Ridge axis looks
to remain east of the Inland Northwest with our region
continuing to see the influence of shortwave energy rotating
around the trough to the west. Scattered showers will develop
across much of the region Saturday afternoon with the boundary
layer being moist after the rain earlier in the day.
Instability parameters also suggest at least the potential for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Best chances at 20-30% will
be over the mountains of northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle for Saturday afternoon. Sunday will remain
conditionally unstable, but not as favorable as Saturday.

The ridge of high pressure building up to the east will
strengthen heading into next week. This will result in an
increasing southerly component in the flow patter for Monday.
There are hints of a shortwave that draws up moisture into the
region that could produce showers and thunderstorms. Chances for
this looks to be around 15-20% with favored areas being across
the Idaho Panhandle into extreme eastern Washington. This would
also draw up warmer temperatures aloft that would result in a
warming trend back to near average for mid August and return of
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday into Wednesday.
The deep trough of low pressure over the eastern Pacific looks
to fill around the middle of next week with the flow pattern
becoming more westerly. This would trend toward a drier forecast
with less potential for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds with a cold front passage today will
continue into the early evening with gusts of up to 20-30 kts
possible. Dry conditions with the gusty winds will result in
critical fire weather conditions through 04Z. New and existing
fires will be active with smoke moving across the region.
Conditions look to remain VFR, but some spots where smoke is
thicker may see periods of MVFR conditions. Winds will relax
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence is high for VFR conditions. Numerous fires in the
region may result in at least brief MVFR conditions at TAF
sites. This potential carries low confidence, but smoke
producing hazy skies across the Inland Northwest looks to
continue through at least Thursday. /SVH

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        58  82  59  79  60  76 /   0   0   0  10  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  59  82  59  78  61  76 /   0   0   0  10  30  60
Pullman        55  79  53  79  57  73 /   0   0   0  10  20  50
Lewiston       65  88  63  87  68  84 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Colville       51  85  51  74  50  74 /   0   0  10  20  70  70
Sandpoint      54  81  54  73  56  72 /   0   0   0  20  40  70
Kellogg        60  79  59  77  62  72 /   0   0   0  10  30  50
Moses Lake     58  86  61  82  61  81 /   0   0  10  20  40  50
Wenatchee      64  86  67  79  67  81 /   0   0  30  40  70  50
Omak           61  88  62  77  61  83 /   0  10  20  30  70  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -
     Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington
     (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow
     Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville
     Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
ID...&&

$$