143
FXUS66 KOTX 221753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impactful winter travel conditions expected across mountain
  passes this week.

- Trending warmer and wetter this week, with lowland rain and
  mountain snow.

- Watching trends for elevated wind potential Wednesday to Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Travel over the Cascades could be challenging tonight into
tomorrow morning as a system moves through, impacting the
Monday morning commute. Due to moderating temperatures, snow
will be limited to the mountains and the lowlands will see rain.
The weather continues to be unsettled through the week, bringing
continued rounds mountain snow and lowland rain. Chances are
increasing for strong wind gusts Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday morning: The active weather pattern
continues as a low off the PNW coast pushes the broad ridge
above us further east. Warmer than normal air will continue
moving into the region. Precipitation in the Cascades will start
later this morning, and will fall as snow due to cold air
damming keeping snow levels low. By tomorrow night, lower
heights move in, spreading precipitation to the majority of the
forecast area. As it does, PWATs rise to 150- 200% of normal.
Heavier snowfall will be seen during this period along mountain
passes, with up to 8 inches expected at highest elevations.
Additionally, during this time, short term models have began
showing a 40-60% chance of 1 inch per hour snowfall rates, which
could lead to rapidly deteriorating winter driving conditions.
For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Western Chelan County including Stevens Pass from 10pm Sunday
through 10am Monday morning. Lowlands will see mainly rain, and
through Monday morning much of the region has a 40-70% chance of
seeing 0.10 inches of rain or more.

Monday night through Wednesday: Lower heights remaining off
coast, flow becoming more zonal, and a strengthening upper level
jet moving through the area will contribute to continued
unsettled weather. PWATs through Tuesday night remain 100-150%
above normal. This will bring additional much needed snowfall to
the Cascades and rainfall to the lowlands. 72-hr snowfall
totals ending early Wednesday morning show Stevens Pass and the
Cascade crest with an 80-90% chance of a foot or more snow.
Lookout Pass has a 40% chance of a foot of snow or more. These
totals bring increasingly likely chances for winter weather
headlines and further impacts to mountain travel. Be prepared
for continued wintry travel conditions along mountain passes.
For precipitation totals, areas such as Spokane, Colville, Coeur
d`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston have a 60% chance or higher of
seeing 0.25 inches of rain through Wednesday. Additionally, wind
gusts will increase on Tuesday due to a frontal passage.
Currently, much of the forecast area has a 50-60% chance of
seeing wind gusts 35 mph or higher, especially in the basin.

Thursday through Saturday: Long term models show precipitation
being confined to mountain elevations by Thursday and into next
weekend, but the incoming weather pattern will bring a risk for
high winds. A tight pressure gradient will form over the area as
a broad upper high sets up in the Western US and a strong low
moves east up north in Canada. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
has picked up on this signal, and has continued to show
increased chances for impactful wind gusts. Current NBM
probabilities show Thursday night having the highest winds, with
much of the region having a 30-50% chance of seeing max wind
gusts 50mph or higher. Wind headlines are becoming increasingly
likely as wind gusts of this magnitude will result in travel
issues, especially to high profile vehicles, isolated tree
damage, and blowing objects. We will continue to monitor this
risk in the coming days. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Main aviation impacts this morning focus over the
Cascades expanding into Wenatchee where light snow is falling
resulting in MVFR conditions. This will come in varying
intensities through the day. Precipitation chances and lowering
cigs expand toward GEG/SFF/COE this afternoon and evening,
becoming more likely tonight into Monday AM with the arrival of
a weak cold front. Ahead of this front, breezy east winds will
be in place for COE/PUW then weaken and shift to the
south/southwest overnight. LWS will carry the lowest
probabilities for precipitation with periods of breezy
southerly winds.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through 02-05Z across E WA and
N ID. For EAT, there is a moderate chance for breaks in the MVFR
stratus at times though predicting precise hours comes with low
confidence. Precipitation type at KEAT also comes with lower
confidence with temperatures hovering near 33F.  HREF suggest
40-60% chance for of MVFR conditions at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW with
precipitation this evening into Monday AM.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        50  37  46  36  44  31 /  30  80  90  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  47  36  44  35  43  32 /  30  80 100  70  60  70
Pullman        49  36  46  38  43  33 /  20  60  90  90  80  70
Lewiston       55  40  52  42  48  37 /  10  50  70  90  80  70
Colville       44  32  44  31  43  27 /  50  90  90  40  40  40
Sandpoint      42  35  41  34  40  31 /  40  90 100  70  60  70
Kellogg        48  38  43  37  41  33 /  30  80 100  90  80  80
Moses Lake     48  35  47  36  47  31 /  50  60  60  40  50  20
Wenatchee      41  34  43  34  43  32 /  70  80  70  40  40  30
Omak           41  34  44  30  43  29 /  70  70  60  20  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Monday for Western Chelan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$