996
FXUS66 KOTX 121807
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1107 AM PDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate and Major HeatRisk Tuesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Wednesday due to
  windy and dry conditions

- Cooling trend Thursday through end of week with showers for
  the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures will continue today with high temperatures
in the high 90s to low 100s. Dry and windy conditions on
Wednesday will lead to elevated to critical fire weather
conditions. Showers are expected to return for the weekend along
with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning update: Limited overnight temperature relief
around the Wenatchee and Moses Lake areas (lows in the upper
60s to mid 70s), as well as the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley
combined with triple digit heat this afternoon has pushed the
HeatRisk levels up slightly for today with Major HeatRisk
covering a broader area within these forecast zones. Thus have
upgraded the Heat Advisories to Extreme Heat Warnings for today.
A Heat Advisory was also added for the Camas Prairie with Kamiah
expected to be near 100F today. JW

Today and tomorrow: As the ridge retrogrades west today, a
shortwave on top of the ridge and a upper low in northern Alberta
will act to increase west/east pressure gradients across Pacific
Northwest. This will have little impact on the temperatures with
highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. Widespread Moderate and Major
HeatRisk will increase the risk for heat-related illnesses,
especially for those vulnerable to heat and those without
effective cooling and hydration. Concerns for elevated fire
weather conditions are still present in central WA (westerly winds
around 10-15 mph and 18-25% RHs in Wenatchee Valley and western
Columbia Basin around 5 to 8 pm). Fire weather Wednesday:
Wednesday still has the greatest potential for critical fire
weather conditions in much of central and eastern Washington.
Models are in generally good agreement that the shortwave in
western BC pivoting towards the base of the trough and the wave
riding the top of the ridge will nearly phase together around
Vancouver Island and bring breezy to windy conditions to the INW.
Expecting westerly winds around 15-25 mph gusting around 25-35 mph
with RHs in the upper teens to low 20s for the Columbia Basin,
Palouse, Spokane area, and Snake River valley. Fire weather
watches are in place for much of central and eastern Washington
lowlands from 11 am to 11 pm Wednesday. Temperatures will cool by
4-8 degrees between Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread highs in
the upper 80s to upper 90s.

Thursday through Monday: Models are in good agreement of another
trough forming and bringing increased chances for precipitation
starting Friday morning and lasting through much of Saturday. There
is a 30-40% chance for Spokane area/Columbia Basin/Palouse to see
greater than 0.10" of precip with this system. Chances increase to
40-60% for locations in closer proximity to higher terrain. The best
chances for 0.10" or more from Friday to Sunday are near the Cascade
crest (70-90% chance) and near the Canadian border (60% chance)
Temperatures will be below average in the upper 70s to upper 80s
late this week and into the weekend. There is excellent ensemble
agreement of another warmup occurring early next week with troughing
off the WA coast again promoting higher 500 mb heights in the
region. DB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Westerly winds at KEAT
start to ramp up to around 13kt near 00z WED. A cold front will
sweep across on Wednesday. Westerly winds will increas across
the Inland Northwest through Wednesday morning and become gusty
into the afternoon. Widespread wind gusts of 25-30 kts will be
common across the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin impacting
all airports, including from Wenatchee (EAT) to Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene (GEG/SFF/COE) to Pullman/Lewiston (PUW/LWS).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        96  65  93  59  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  64  93  59  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        93  61  89  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      102  70  99  65  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       95  53  92  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      92  59  91  55  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        91  67  88  62  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake    100  65  94  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72  91  65  86  67 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          101  63  94  59  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan
     County-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville
     Plateau-Western Okanogan County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern
     Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-
     Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower
     Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-
     Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-
     Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Wenatchee
     Area.

ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-
     Northern Panhandle.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties.

&&

$$