302
FXUS66 KOTX 222248
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
348 PM PDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm Memorial Day Weekend with a minor heat risk. Temperatures
  warming into the 80s Sunday. Water temperatures remain cold.

- Widely scattered showers with a 10-30 percent chance of
  thunderstorms Sunday night into Memorial Day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will gradually warm through Sunday as high
temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s for the weekend. There
is growing potential for showers and thunderstorms from Sunday
night into Memorial Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday Night: An upper trough over Eastern
WA/N Idaho will exit into NW Montana tonight leading to a
decrease trend in shower activity this evening, followed by dry
conditions overnight. Afternoon sunbreaks have helped
destabilize the atmosphere in the Central Panhandle Mountains
where there is a 20% chance of thunderstorms through the early
evening. These storms only have near 200 J/KG of CAPE to work
with so main impacts will be brief downpours with any storms
that develop. Friday begins the warming and drying trend as a
large closed low digs off the west coast providing south to
southwest flow over the region. Residual moisture and afternoon
heating is expected to produce another round of afternoon
showers on Friday over the northern mountains and ID Panhandle.
Given the lack of forcing these showers will be isolated to
widely scattered in nature. On Saturday more significant rising
of the upper heights occur as a ridge develops over the area.
This will bring more significant warming as high temperatures
warm into the mid 70s to low 80s. JW

Sunday through Thursday: The warm, dry conditions will continue
for Sunday. The region can expect its warmest temperatures with
highs in the 80s to low 90s. Ensembles continue to bring a
shortwave on Monday. It will mainly bring light rain showers to
the Inland Northwest. Instability with the wave could generate
an occasional thunderstorm. The best chances for the
thunder is along the Canadian border, Southeast WA, and the
Lower ID Panhandle. The wave will bring slightly cooler
temperatures for Tuesday. It will be short lived. Another ridge
will be filling in behind the wave. Temperatures will climb back
into the 80s and low 90s for Wednesday. Another wave will bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weather disturbance over the Spokane area as of 23z
will push east into the ID Panhandle between 0-3z followed by a
drying trend. Models continue to show little potential for fog
or stratus impacting any of the TAF sites tonight with VFR
conditions forecast through 00z Saturday. Although with locally
moderate showers moistening the boundary layer patchy fog over
the ID Panhandle valleys and near KSFF can not be completely
ruled out.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Alternate
scenario is for the boundary layer moisture to hang on
overnight, along with some clearing allowing patchy fog to
develop over the ID Panhandle valleys and near KSFF. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        41  68  44  74  48  83 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  68  44  74  47  83 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        39  66  42  73  47  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       47  74  49  80  52  88 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  69  39  75  42  83 /  10  20   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      42  68  43  74  46  82 /  30  20   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        44  65  46  73  49  82 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     44  76  46  81  50  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      47  76  50  80  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           43  75  46  80  50  85 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$