393
FXUS66 KOTX 200449
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
949 PM PDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated afternoon thunderstorms over northeast Washington
  and in the Idaho Panhandle Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Today through Monday will see seasonable temperatures along
with chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms over
northeast Washington and in the Idaho Panhandle. Warm and dry
conditions are expected to return toward the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: With the passage of a cold front earlier this morning, there
was a rainband that brought around a tenth of an inch of rain
to areas such as Spokane, Deer Park, and Coeur d`Alene. It will
move southeast and out of the forecast area within a couple
hours. Post cold frontal winds will bring breezy conditions to
the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area, and gusty winds to the Okanogan
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin, and
Lewiston/Pullman areas. Wenatchee is already seeing wind gusts
of 30 mph, and this looks to continue through the afternoon.
Surface-based CAPE values of 200-300 J/kg combined with the lift
from upslope flow will bring thunderstorm potential to the
Northeast Mountains and far northern Idaho Panhandle this
afternoon and evening. Threats with these thunderstorms include
localized wind gusts near 40 mph and some small hail.

Sunday through Monday: Temperatures reflect the front passage
tomorrow with highs cooling to near normal. As mostly zonal westerly
flow moves through tomorrow in the wake of the front, winds become
breezier more widespread throughout the forecast area, with wind
gusts near 20 mph expected for most areas. Thunderstorm
potential tomorrow is lower than today with lower CAPE and lift,
but there is still potential for them to form in the same areas
as today, and showers will be more widespread tomorrow
throughout northern central Washington. On Monday, a shortwave
trough moves through northern Washington, and brings more
widespread showers and higher CAPE values, supporting a
continued chance of thunderstorms over far northeast Washington
and the far northern Idaho Panhandle. Due to minimal cloud
cover preceding the evening, low temperatures Monday night into
Tuesday morning will be chilly, with NBM percentages showing a
10-20 percent chance of lowland areas reaching 32 degrees as a
low.

Tuesday through Saturday: Once the shortwave makes its way eastward
and out of the area, a weak ridge will begin forming. High
temperatures will rebound back up to 6-8 degrees above normal, and
dry conditions will mostly prevail through Thursday afternoon. By
Thursday, around half the clusters support a low pressure system off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest, which will bring chances of
unsettled weather back to the region. Precipitation is anticipated
with the low pressure system, but will mostly be limited to higher
elevation areas. Winds will be elevated through the Okanogan Valley,
Waterville Plateau, and the Columbia basin on Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday afternoon and evening. Will keep an eye on this low
pressure system as the week presses on to monitor precipitation and
wind potential, as CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks both support
precipitation chances trending above normal for the extended
period. /AS

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: One disturbance producing showers with embedded
thunderstorms around Bonners Ferry, ID will exit the region
tonight. VFR conditions will prevail, but a moist boundary layer
combined with low level upslope and daytime heating will promote
an increase in stratocumulus over NE WA/N Idaho Panhandle
between 15z-19z with areas of MVFR conditions including KCOE.
The next disturbances drops down late Sunday afternoon into the
evening producing another round of showers. Mid level westerly
flow will favor the highest activity over the ID Panhandle.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible after 21z over NE WA/N
Idaho Panhandle including Republic, Colville, Sandpoint, and
Bonners Ferry.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high
confidence in VFR conditions across Central WA, and the Lewiston
area through 06z Mon. For KGEG/KSFF/KPUW the HREF is only
carrying a 10-20% chance of MVFR CIGS Sunday morning so kept
prevailing CIGS VFR. For KCOE, evening showers and higher dew
points leads to a better chance of an MVFR CIG developing
between 16z-20z. JW

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        38  56  36  56  34  60 /   0  10  10  30   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  54  35  53  32  58 /  20  10  20  60  10   0
Pullman        37  53  36  51  32  55 /   0  10  40  40   0   0
Lewiston       41  61  42  60  37  62 /   0   0  20  30   0   0
Colville       35  56  31  57  30  60 /  30  30  40  30  10   0
Sandpoint      38  54  36  52  31  57 /  40  40  50  80  20  10
Kellogg        38  51  38  48  34  54 /  30  30  40  90  20  20
Moses Lake     38  63  37  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      42  61  39  61  37  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           38  62  35  61  34  63 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$