367
FXUS66 KOTX 061815
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1115 AM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire concerns in central Washington Friday.

- Widespread Moderate HeatRisk Saturday through Monday.

- Dry and breezy with elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
This week will bring dry weather and a warming trend. Friday
will be breezy in central Washington, raising fire weather
concerns. Temperatures will warm into the mid to high 90s by
Sunday with widespread Moderate HeatRisk Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend throughout the forecast area continues as the
ridge strengthens off the Pacific Coast. As it slowly progresses
eastward and the ridge axis gets closer to Washington, temperatures
will increase steadily each day. By Sunday, the ridge axis will have
moved onshore, resulting in the highest temperatures for the area
Sunday and Monday. Monday will be the warmest day, with widespread
temperatures in the mid to high 90s. NBM probabilities for areas
of the deeper basin and deeper valley areas to reach 95 degrees or
more are 80 percent and higher. A few areas are expected to reach
100 degrees as well. Ephrata, Wenatchee, Lewiston, and Moses Lake
all have a 50 percent chance or higher of reaching 100 degrees on
Monday. Another important aspect of this warmup will be low
temperatures. Beginning Sunday night, low temperatures will
struggle to drop below 60 degrees, and on Monday, are anticipated
to be in the low to mid 60s. These warm overnight temperatures
will result in poor overnight recovery, leading to widespread
moderate Heat Risk values throughout the forecast area and some
isolated major Heat Risk values. Moderate Heat Risk will lead to
an increased risk for those sensitive to heat related illnesses,
and major Heat Risk will lead to anyone without adequate cooling
and hydration having an increased chance of heat related
illnesses. As the ridge breaks down and gives way to zonal flow,
temperatures will begin cooling and Heat Risk levels drop back
down to minor by Wednesday.

Alongside the increase in temperatures and Heat Risk, fire weather
concerns continue through the weekend and into next week. In
particular, winds throughout central Washington will be elevated
Friday night as the pressure gradient increases across the Cascades.
The Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee, and Central Chelan county areas
will see wind gusts up to 25 mph, leading to increased fire concerns
Friday night. Additionally, as the ridge weakens beginning Monday
and zonal flow prevails through the area, winds in the
aforementioned areas will again increase each evening, with gusts of
up to 35 mph being favored by long-term models Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday night. On these days, relative humidity values could
drop below 20 percent for much of the area. These low humidity
values combined with the gusty winds in the Waterville Plateau,
Wenatchee, and Central Chelan county areas will result in an
increased fire risk. Should long-term models continue favoring
these gusty winds alongside low humidity, fire headlines for early
next week may be needed, so stay tuned. Accompanying the overall
breezy winds Monday and Tuesday are some signals of dry lightning,
particularly in the afternoons and evenings as energy from the
ridge breaking down moves through the area. Areas that have the
best chances for dry lightning are the Northern Mountains and the
southern Idaho Panhandle. Confidence in this dry lightning is low
to moderate, so will keep a close eye on this through the weekend.

Long-term model guidance is hinting at a break from the dry and
heat, with signals of a trough moving through Wednesday of next
week. This trough would bring the potential of much needed rain to
the mountains and a significant cooldown. The Climate Prediction
Center`s most recent 8-14 Day Outlook shows increased chances for
lower than normal temperatures and higher than normal precipitation
for the forecast area. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue for the next several
days. A weak weather system has brought a band of mid and high
clouds through the region this morning. This will be followed by
an increase in west-southwest winds this afternoon. Gusts are
expected to be strongest in Central WA between now and 05z this
evening with local gusts to near 30 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        83  56  87  56  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  82  55  84  56  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        80  54  83  55  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       88  60  91  61  95  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       84  50  86  50  91  54 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      81  54  85  54  89  54 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        77  58  81  59  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     91  57  93  61  98  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      89  61  93  66  97  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           89  57  91  58  96  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$