900
FXUS66 KOTX 151134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
334 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low impact and unsettled wet weather continues throughout
  next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break between weather systems on Saturday. Then another
weather system Sunday into Monday will bring additional light
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday and Sunday: Satellite and radar are showing a more
westerly-zonal flow as precipitation continues to fall across
the northern counties in Washington and Idaho. The Cascades are
also receiving the brunt of the precipitation as the system
transitions perpendicular to the mountain range. The above
normal precipitable water content with this system will lose
some of that moisture Saturday into Sunday, and as such we`ll
see a break in the valley rain for many low-land areas Saturday.
Sunday the next upper level trough swings in from the
northwest, brining another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest. This time, the amounts look light and with higher
snow levels, any snow should remain at the higher mountain
ridges. This weather system will again remain mild with
temperatures overnight in the 40s and during the daytime in the
50s.

Monday through Friday: The upper level weather system will move
through the region and begin to introduce cooler air aloft.
There remains quite differing solutions through the week, more
notable for Tuesday and again by Friday, as far as the strength
of the cooler air mass and the precipitation (type and amount).
Relying on the ensemble suite of models, there is good consensus
Tuesday and Wednesday before differences arise Friday with the
placement and strength of the Low moving into the West. The
cooler air mass will bring lower snow levels through the week,
though remaining around 3000-4000 feet. Periods of precipitation
through the week will be common, as has seemed to be common the
last few weeks. Most of the Inland Northwest (outside of Grant
County) will have greater than 50% chance of seeing more than
half an inch of precipitation by Friday. North Idaho, from St
Maries to Bonners Ferry has greater than 60% chance of seeing
more than three-quarters of an inch of precipitation, and the
Cascade Crest (western Chelan and Okanogan counties) has greater
than 75% chance of seeing over 1.25 inches of precipitation.
Periods of precipitation look to be light in intensity so more
beneficial and low impact through the week. /Dewey

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: The wet weather system will continue pushing east and
exit the region on Saturday. The surface gradient will
gradually relax after 19-21z Saturday allowing surface winds to
relax. A moist boundary layer combined with upslope winds into
the higher terrain of NE Washington and the ID Panhandle will
promote an abundance of MVFR stratus through tonight including
KCOE.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The latest HREF
only has a 20% chance of MVFR conditions through early this
afternoon at KGEG/KSFF. Given recent trends in observations and
continued breezy southwest winds in the boundary layer this
morning, the forecast leans towards conditions remaining VFR
through the day (moderate confidence). KCOE is on the edge of
the MVFR stratus leading to lower confidence for this site. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        56  42  55  42  50  36 /  20  20  30  60  70  50
Coeur d`Alene  54  42  53  43  50  39 /  50  30  30  70  80  80
Pullman        56  41  53  42  50  36 /  50  10  40  80  80  70
Lewiston       61  44  55  47  55  42 /  30   0  50  80  70  60
Colville       54  38  52  38  50  33 /  30  50  50  60  80  70
Sandpoint      50  40  52  41  48  38 /  80  60  50  70  90  90
Kellogg        50  43  54  45  49  40 /  90  30  40  90 100  90
Moses Lake     60  43  57  42  54  34 /   0  20  20  30  20  20
Wenatchee      60  47  55  45  55  38 /  10  30  20  40  20  20
Omak           55  43  53  44  52  38 /  10  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$