078
FXUS66 KOTX 191727
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1027 AM PDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures through Wednesday with afternoon highs in
  the mid 70s to low 80s.

- Changes arrive late week with temperatures cooling gradually.
  There is a low chance for light showers late week into the
  weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the middle of next
week with high temperatures through Tuesday in the mid 70s to
low 80s. Possible changes late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday-Sunday: The Inland NW will experience a mild and dry
weekend as a weak upper-level ridge passes through the region.
Temperatures on Saturday will not deviate much from Friday with
afternoon highs in the 70s to around 80F. Highs will warm a few
more degrees heading into Sunday with 80s more common across the
lowlands. Clear skies and dry air will allow for cool nights
with overnight lows dipping into the 40s to lower 50s. Winds
will remain light with speeds generally under 10 mph. The
exception will be evening drainage winds through the Cascade
river drainages which will gusts around 15 mph at times.

Monday-Wednesday: A broad trough shifting into the Eastern
Pacific will sling shortwaves toward the region. This energy
will largely be deflected into British Columbia Monday. The
tightening midlevel height field will lead to a subtle increase
in southwest winds aloft and the upper low spinning south of
Lewiston will finally drift east. Ultimately, this will allow
for additional warming with 850mb temps climbing near 18C Monday
afternoon (compared to 15C on Saturday). The ridge will slowly
be beaten down with subsequent shortwaves and the air mass will
slowly cool Tuesday and Wednesday. We will see a slight increase
in afternoon winds each consecutive day, especially for the
Cascade Gaps as the marine layer deepens over W WA and the cross
Cascade gradient increases toward 7mb. In the Columbia Basin,
sustained winds will increase near 10 mph Monday and Tuesday
with occasional gusts around 15 mph with trends up another 5 mph
for Wednesday. Conditions will remain dry through the period
with temperatures starting off in the 80s Monday and cooling
into the 70s Tuesday into Wednesday. The main uncertainty in
this period of the forecast resides on the strength of the
shortwaves flattening the ridge. If they are on the deeper side,
this has potential for winds to be bit stronger but this comes
with low confidence given low probabilities for wind gusts
greater than 20 mph per the latest NBM probabilities. Given the
extended period of mild temperatures and dry conditions, fuels
will become drier with time and folks should continue to
exercise caution near dry grasses, especially heading into
midweek with afternoon breeziness.

Thursday-weekend: Roughly 90% of the ensembles bring the
offshore trough inland late in the week into the weekend. There
are a myriad of outcomes with the exact timing, strength of the
wave, and available moisture for precipitation. We can see this
spread illustrated in the outcomes for high temperatures for
Thursday- Friday which could be as cool as mid 60s or warm as
lower 80s. The cooling will bring an increase in winds with
probabilities indicating a 30-60% chance for wind gusts to be
stronger than 20 mph. At this time, NBM carries the highest
probabilities on Friday. The incoming system will bring a chance
for light showers. Highest precipitation chances come in the
mountains and lowest in the Basin. Depending how progressive or
non- progressive the system is will determine if any locations
will be capable of receiving a wetting rain (0.10").
Probabilities at this time top out between 20-30% mainly
favoring the Cascade Crest and Selkirk`s across NE WA and N
Idaho. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites as an
upper-level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. High clouds
from a frontal system moving into northern British Columbia will
moves through the Inland Northwest today. Winds will be light
with speeds generally under 10kts, with locally higher gusts in
the Okanogan Valley south to the Waterville Plateau and
possibly Wenatchee area this afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions. Low confidence in gusts to 15 mph at KEAT in
the evening.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        78  50  81  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  77  50  79  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        74  48  78  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       78  54  82  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       80  45  81  45  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      76  48  77  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        75  50  77  51  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     79  49  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      79  58  80  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  52  81  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$