486
FXUS66 KOTX 102031
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
131 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and dry Thursday. Elevated fire weather conditions in
  dry grasses. A 20 percent chance for patchy blowing dust along
  I-90 from Moses Lake to Ritzville southward across the
  Columbia Basin.

- Cooler by Friday. Showers return over the weekend. A 60-90
  percent chance for greater than a quarter of an inch of
  precipitation over southeast Washington into the southern to
  central Idaho Panhandle Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is moving through the region on this afternoon,
bringing chances for elevated fire weather conditions and
localized blowing dust. Temperatures cool by around 10 degrees
from Thursday to Friday. Saturday and Sunday, a low pressure
system will bring widespread chances of precipitation and a
return of gusty winds, alongside isolated thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Friday: A cold front will continue to sag southward
slowly today, bringing breezy west winds around 10-20 mph with
gusts around 25 mph. There is a chance for blowing dust across
the Columbia Basin but with the wind forecast trending down, not
expecting widespread impacts. Little precipitation will come
from this front besides some sprinkles and light showers late
this evening in southeast Washington and the central and
southern Idaho Panhandle. There is a small chance (5%) of
isolated lightning with these showers with up to 200 J/kg CAPE
from the most unstable parcel originating near the 700 mb warm
nose on forecast soundings. Temperatures Friday behind the cold
front will return to below average in the 60s to mid 70s. Light
upslope fall into the northern ID Panhandle will bring a chance
(15-30%) for surface showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday
afternoon. Forecast instability looks very weak again tomorrow
around 100-200 J/kg so not expecting widespread lightning.

Saturday through Thursday: Larger changes arrive Saturday
afternoon as a deep trough strengthens off the coast. Much of
the day will be fairly nice with highs in the 60s and 70s with
breezy northeast winds in the Columbia Basin. Ensembles suggest
PWATs will increase from near normal in the morning to around
120-180 percent of normal by Saturday evening. Precipitation
chances will increase from south to north as the atmosphere
saturates in the evening. There are still substantial
differences in the QPF amounts amongst the ensembles but the
overall trend is a higher chance of 0.5 inches or more of rain
through Monday morning, especially outside of southeast
Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. For example, yesterday
mornings NBM run only had a 34 percent chance of 0.5+ inches
for Spokane while this mornings run increased to 62 percent.
Overall, these chances for central Washington are around 30-45%,
50-70% for eastern Washington (greatest chances near the Idaho
border), and 60-75% for the Idaho Panhandle. There is a small
chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon near the
Idaho/Washington border and Idaho Sunday as the cold pool aloft
passes through the region. Forecast instability looks very weak
with fairly stable mid levels, but surface heating may be
sufficient to get a couple strikes. Temperatures Sunday will be
well below normal in the 50s and 60s. Monday onward will bring a
warming and drying trend as the low departs. There are some
disagreements amongst the ensembles of additional troughing into
Tuesday which would bring additional showery conditions. As
ridging returns mid next week, temperatures will return into the
70s and 80s. /Butler&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail as a cold front slowly
sags southward through the region today, bringing mid and high
clouds with gusty surface winds. An additional surge of moisture
may bring sprinkles/light rain to KPUW-KLWS around 06-09z, but
otherwise no precipitation is expected from this front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions through the period.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        49  71  51  71  50  61 /   0   0   0   0  70  80
Coeur d`Alene  49  68  49  69  47  57 /  10   0   0   0  70  90
Pullman        49  68  47  73  48  58 /  20   0   0  10  80  80
Lewiston       57  76  52  77  51  65 /  30   0   0  10  80  80
Colville       45  74  46  73  49  65 /  10   0   0   0  60  80
Sandpoint      48  65  47  65  46  57 /  20  20   0   0  70  90
Kellogg        48  66  47  67  45  54 /  60   0   0   0  70  90
Moses Lake     51  75  53  76  53  68 /   0   0   0   0  70  60
Wenatchee      52  75  57  75  52  69 /   0   0   0  10  70  60
Omak           50  75  53  76  52  69 /   0   0   0   0  60  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$