860
FXUS66 KOTX 042331
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
431 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of showers on Independence Day.

- Small thunderstorm chances in far southeastern Washington,
  Idaho Panhandle, and the North Cascades on Saturday.

- Hot temperatures arrive Monday and continue into at least
  Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Independence Day will see increasing clouds and some areas will
have a chance for showers. Thunderstorm potential also exists
on for far southeastern Washington, the central and southern
Idaho Panhandle, and the North Cascades on Saturday. Hot
temperatures arrive on Monday and may persist through the
remainder of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday night: Moisture continues to push
north tonight, but with how dry the atmosphere is along with
seeing what has occurred in northern Oregon, PoPs have been
reduced throughout Friday evening. Rain that does fall will
remain light, with much of it being virga. This could lead to a
slight increase in winds this afternoon and evening, with most
areas not exceeding 15 to 20 mph. Cloud cover will continue
through the overnight hours before we begin to see breaks on
Saturday. As this shortwave moves through on Saturday, it will
interact with lingering moisture and modest instability to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon over the higher terrain in northeast WA and the ID
Panhandle. Any storms that do form could be capable of brief
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning. While the overall
coverage is expected to remain limited, conditions will be
monitored closely due to the holiday weekend.

Sunday through Wednesday: Following the exit of Saturday`s
system, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build
into the region. This will mark the beginning of another warming
trend, with dry, unstable conditions returning. Each day will
increase in temperatures, with Tuesday and Wednesday being the
warmest days. Ensembles are indicating that yet again we could
see warmer temperatures than the last heat wave. Temperatures in
the high 90s to 105 are expected as of this forecast, with the
hottest temperatures being down in the LC Valley and Columbia
Basin. This could bring the potential for widespread impacts
from heat stress to increased fire danger. Winds will begin to
increase Wednesday afternoon as another system begins to push in
offshore. Overnight temperatures will be warm was well, with
most areas remaining in the 60s to around 70. Beyond Wednesday,
we begin to see model spread on whether temperatures will remain
hot, or if they will start to cool down slightly. Keep an eye
on the forecast as we get closer. /KK


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
Best chance of gusty winds of 15-25 kts from outflow of showers
along the WA/OR border. There will be a chance for showers over
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS between 00-12Z, with the best chances near
PUW/LWS before 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in conditions remaining VFR. Low to moderate confidence in
exact timing of showers near LWS/PUW/COE/SFF/COE.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        80  57  82  55  87  56 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  78  56  79  56  86  56 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Pullman        73  54  78  50  84  53 /  40  30   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       80  58  86  60  92  62 /  50  30   0   0   0   0
Colville       83  57  81  47  86  49 /  10  20  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      78  54  75  52  82  51 /  10  40  30   0   0   0
Kellogg        75  53  75  57  82  59 /  30  40  20   0   0   0
Moses Lake     84  58  88  55  91  58 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      86  61  88  60  91  64 /  10  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           88  59  88  57  90  59 /  10  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$