688
FXUS66 KOTX 191048
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
348 AM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry conditions through Friday.

- Weekend system brings thunder threat and gusty winds,
  resulting in increasing fire weather concerns.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures increase well above average by Thursday and Friday
as high pressure dominates. A pattern change Saturday will
bring cooler, unsettled conditions. Unsettled conditions will
continue into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: With the ridge over the region, warm, dry
conditions will persist through the period. Highs will rise a
few degrees from the previous day and bring moderate HeatRisk to
portions of the Basin on Thursday and Friday. The Basin and
valleys have at least 60% probability of highs greater than 90
degrees for these days. Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s.

Late Friday through Saturday: The region can expect a pattern
change for the period. Ensembles have begun to diverge on the
timing of the ridge sliding East and the track of the Low. 40%
of ensembles members have a slower ridge breakdown and a low
tracking off the coast of Oregon. 60% of ensemble members have
the ridge sliding East quicker and the low tracking off the
coast of Washington. The forecast trend has lowered the threat
of thunderstorms on Friday night to less than 10% but has
increased thunderstorms chances to 10-30% on Saturday with the
highest chances over the northern mountains. Winds will be
sustained 10 to 25 mph range with gusts into the 30 to 40 mph
range. Elevated fire concerns are possible Saturday due to
thunderstorms and dry, windy conditions across the
Basin. Temperatures will be on a cooler trend as Saturdays
highs will be in the 80s.

Sunday through Tuesday: As the low exits, the ridge will
rebuild over the Pacific Northwest with a deep trough off the
coast. Breezy winds continue on Sunday but not as strong as
Saturday. With a southerly flow pattern, ensembles are pushing
monsoonal moisture into the region. It keeps a weak threat of
isolated dry thunderstorms during the afternoons. Temperatures
will climb back into the upper 80s and 90s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period. Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) as a ridge of
high pressure remains over the region. Smoke may cause minor
reductions in visibility at KMWH this afternoon and evening,
but visibilities are expected to remain VFR at 6SM or greater.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in light winds and VFR conditions for all TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        89  56  93  59  95  64 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  89  57  93  60  95  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        86  50  92  54  95  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       93  62  98  65  99  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       89  50  92  52  95  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      86  53  89  56  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        86  55  90  58  94  61 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     90  57  94  60  95  63 /   0   0   0   0   0  30
Wenatchee      91  66  94  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  30
Omak           92  62  94  64  96  67 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Okanogan
County, Chelan County, Douglas County, and Grant County.

ID...None.

&&

$$