158
FXUS66 KOTX 031748
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1048 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and unsettled weather pattern will persist through today
with a warming and drying trend by the weekend. Early next week
looks wet and cool again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: One more day of scattered showers and a 15% chance of
afternoon thunderstorms. The final weather disturbances will move
through on the backside of a very elongated trough stretching from
Manitoba Canada to the desert southwest. The area of concern is
extreme eastern WA and the Idaho Panhandle. Any showers could have
brief heavy rain, breezy winds, small graupel and an isolated
lightning strike. With the ridge building just off the west coast,
we will see an increase in northerly winds across central WA
through the day. There is a 60-75% chance of sustained winds of 15
mph down the Okanogan Valley and onto portions of the Waterville
Plateau and Upper Columbia Basin. There is a 35-50% chance of
sustained winds to 20 mph around Omak south to around Highway 2.
There is a 40-50% chance of seeing gusts to 30 mph, and that is
mainly for the Okanogan Valley. Temperatures will be in the upper
40s to mid 50s, with around 60 for the Moses Lake area. This is at
or just a few degree below average.

Thursday night through Friday night: Showers will wane through the
evening hours across the central and southern ID Panhandle. Skies
will clear and Friday morning will be chilly, with low temps in
the mid 20s to around freezing. The clear to mostly clear skies
will continue through the period. We will begin to feel the
influence of the ridge and temperatures will warm several degrees
over Thursday. Low temps for Fri night/Sat morning will still
remain a couple degrees below average given the good radiational
cooling. /Nisbet

Saturday through Wednesday: The weekend will be gorgeous thanks to a
high pressure ridge centered over the INW. Temperatures will be in
the 60sw and 70s Saturday and Sunday. Changes are on the horizon
Sunday night as the high pressure ridge shifts east into western
Montana and weakens. Moist southwest flow returns and with that come
rain changes for the entire region. Snow levels initially Monday
morning around around 4500-6000` but lower to 3500-4500` by Tuesday
morning. This will bring light snow to Stevens Pass overnight Monday
into Tuesday with a 20% chance of 4+" by noon Tuesday. From Monday
morning to Tuesday night, central WA has a 5-30% chance of 0.25"+ of
rain, 30-50% chance for eastern WA, and 50-70% chance for north ID.
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s.
Wednesday and Thursday next week look showery but warmer as clusters
are in good agreement of another high pressure ridge building.
/db

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper trough shifting east over the area will
continue to mean some isolated -shrasn/-shra, a chance for
isolated afternoon -tsra, and local MVFR conditions. Wind will
also be slightly gusty, near 20 kts or so in the afternoon. High
pressure builds in from the west leading to drier weather and
subsidence, leading to mainly VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence in local MVFR conditions before 00Z. Moderate to high
confidence in VFR condtions. There is some risk for localized fog
overnight/early Friday AM. Confidence is low. The main TAF sites
that indicates some potential is near COE, PUW, LWS, but
confidence is low with ensembles showing only a 5-10% chance at
these location.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  30  56  32  61  36 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  28  56  29  61  34 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        49  30  54  31  59  37 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  34  59  34  65  40 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  27  57  30  61  34 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      47  28  54  29  58  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        45  28  51  30  58  36 /  80  20   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     60  31  62  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  36  59  37  63  43 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           58  31  61  34  65  38 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$