729
FXUS66 KOTX 240531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through the weekend and into next week with much
  of Central WA and the L-C Valley in areas of Major HeatRisk
  with isolated areas of Extreme HeatRisk.

- Increased fire weather concerns over the Cascades Monday and
  Tuesday for hot/dry/unstable conditions.

- Ridge breakdown by end of next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend
into early next week. Near record temperatures are expected Monday
and Tuesday during the peak of the heatwave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: Ensembles continue to keep the region
under a strengthening ridge driven by a Four Corners High
Pressure. It will bring a prolonged period of hot, dry weather
for the Inland Northwest. The region is positioned under the
ridge axis.

Temperatures will steadily rise through the weekend and into
the start of next week. Highs will range from 10-20 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Highs are expected to be in
the 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will be in upper
50s and low 70s. A Extreme Heat Watch is in place for portions
of the East Cascades, Central Basin, and Okanogan Valley for
Saturday through Wednesday. Smoke from area fires can shave a
few degrees off the expected highs. It is also expected to
degrade air quality for locations close to the fires
particularly Camas Prairie and Southeast Washington. Ensemble
trend is continually showing instability increasing along the
Cascades crest for Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorm potential is
up to 10% in this area. It will be an area to watch for the
start of the week.

By the middle of next week, the ridge is expected to begin to
weaken and moisture will begin to intrude on the region.
Ensembles have decent agreement with moisture pushing into the
region by late Wednesday. This would bring the potential for
elevated thunderstorms, raising the risk of new fire starts. Any
shower/thunderstorm activity is being confined to Southeast WA
and the Idaho Panhandle. Confidence is low for the showers. This
will continue to be monitored closely in the coming days. By the
end of the week, cooler temperatures near season normals are
expected. Precip chances are confined to the higher terrain of
the Cascades and along the Canadian Border. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions with high clouds will prevail except
for KLWS and KPUW where smoke from fires in central Idaho and
the lower Idaho Panhandle is expected to bring MVFR-IFR
visibilities at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence
in the smoke forecast for KPUW-KLWS. The RRFS is showing a spike
in near surface smoke around 15-20z Sunday before northwest
winds scour out the smoke again. The HRRR smoke does not have as
much of a pronounced spike of near-surface smoke.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        61  96  61  98  64  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  95  62  98  64  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        59  95  59  95  62  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       67 103  68 102  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       51  96  53  98  54  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      56  92  56  95  57  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        63  93  65  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     64  99  63 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      72  99  74 101  76  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           64  99  66 100  68 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Northeast Blue
     Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Central
     Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses
     Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Portion of North Cascades National
     Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East
     Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington
     North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704).
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.
     Air Quality Alert until 9 AM PDT Monday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Lewiston
     Area.

&&

$$