078
FXUS66 KOTX 150710
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1210 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued thunderstorm chances focused over mountain areas
  through the weekend.

- Temperatures warm back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday.

- Drier air returns early to mid next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A somewhat active pattern persists across the Inland Northwest
through the weekend and into early next week with continued
mountain thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures trend warmer through the weekend. A drier airmass
moves in by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday: The Inland NW will remain in a somewhat
active pattern, with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances and
temperatures a bit closer to seasonal norms. Highs will be in
mid-80s through mid-90s this weekend. A baggy upper trough
retrogrades west, but impulses and lingering moisture (with PWATs
around 120-160% of normal) will work with daily daytime
instability to bring these precipitation chances. Today a
shortwave swinging in will spread a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the region. The best chances will be around
the Cascades and mountains, but other chances will also expand
across the Columbia Basin in more isolated to scattered fashion.
Some of these could contain brief heavy rain and gusty winds, with
the best risk around the mountain zones and southeast CWA again.
Smaller chances will be found Sunday, found in spotty fashion
around the Cascades and northern mountains and potentially a bit
more coverage near the far southeast CWA, especially later in the
day as a wave surges along the boundary stalled in that region.

As for fire weather and lightning and wind threat, a modest
chance for thunderstorms will be found near the Cascades again
this afternoon and evening; elevated fire weather conditions are
forecast but there is a better chance for wet thunderstorms and
limit the fire threat. A Red Flag Warning was issued for FWZ709,
near the Blue Mountains from noon to 9 pm Saturday, where there is
higher confidence of abundant lightning and it is an area that
has not see much rain. Gusty outflow winds from any t-storms could
post a risk for spread on any new or ongoing wildfires.

Monday to Friday: The offshore trough pushes back into the Monday
into Tuesday, but it looks weak, while additional weak waves into
the end of the week. Models have backed of on the coverage of
potential Monday to Thursday the main shower chances retreat to
the mountains and look more isolated in coverage. Some better
chances arrive toward the end of the week. Temperature will be a
more seasonal 80s to low 90s. Winds do not look to impactful at
this time, but we will have to watch for some gaps winds near the
Cascades and down the Okanogan Valley at times. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period with isolated MVFR visibilities possible due to smoke.
The greatest potential for visibility reductions due to smoke
will be near the Cascades and in the western Columbia Basin
including KEAT and KMWH, though confidence in visibility impacts
is too low at this time to bring TAF visibilities lower than 6SM.
The threat of showers will be present Saturday afternoon across
much of the region with PROB30 groups reflecting this threat for
KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in smoke and haze continuing to impact local terminals, but low
confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. High confidence on
showers and thunderstorms being present in parts of the region
Saturday afternoon but low confidence on storms impacting
specific TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        87  55  88  57  89  58 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  86  55  87  57  88  57 /  20  30   0   0   0  10
Pullman        86  48  86  51  87  50 /  40  30   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       90  60  91  63  92  63 /  40  30  10  20   0  10
Colville       86  45  86  46  87  47 /  20  20  20   0   0  10
Sandpoint      83  49  84  50  84  50 /  10  20   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        83  53  83  55  84  55 /  10  30  10   0   0  10
Moses Lake     89  57  90  58  91  57 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  65  89  66  91  65 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           88  60  89  61  91  62 /  30  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Okanogan
County, Chelan County, and Douglas County.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for
Lower Palouse-Snake River (Zone 709).

ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Lewis County
and Nez Perce County.

&&

$$