130
FXUS66 KOTX 111031
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
331 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying and warming trend through Tuesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday
  through Wednesday with warm, breezy conditions.

- Cooling trend through end of week with showers for the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will provide more typical summer like conditions
over the next few days, with the warmup peaking on Monday and
Tuesday as high temperatures warm into the high 90s to low 100s.
Breezy winds will usher in a gradual cool down Wednesday through
Friday. Showers expected to return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: The the week will start off hot. High
pressure off the coast will nudge a ridge into the Pacific
Northwest. It will bring another round of hot temperatures of
90s and low 100s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to
low 70s. With the continuing dry weather and afternoon breezy
winds, there are fire weather concerns for Okanogan Valley on
Monday and the Basin on Tuesday. See fire weather section below
for more information.

Wednesday through Friday: Models are bringing shortwave trough
into the region on Wednesday. Most of the moisture is expected
to stay north of the border as it passes. There are gradual
increases to the shower chances along the border. Any precip
amounts are not expected to be more than couple of hundredths.
The trough will usher breezy winds across the Basin. Winds will
be sustained in the teens and mid 20s with gusts into the low 30
mph range. The trough will also bring a cold air push and bring
lower near normal temperatures. Highs will be in the 80s. Lows
will be in the upper 40s and low 60s.

Saturday and Sunday: The ensembles are showing a trough pushing
through the region over the weekend. It has a decent moisture
plume with it. It has potential to bring widespread showers to
the Inland Northwest. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. Lows
will be in the upper 40s and low 60s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail with light winds in most
areas. Breezy north winds will develop for KOMK in the early
morning and into afternoon around 15-20 KTS with gusts up to 30
kts and slowly decrease into the afternoon hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions.  JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather Monday: The main area of concern for fire Monday is the
Okanogan Valley. Expecting elevated fire weather conditions with
downvalley north winds around 15-20 mph in the morning with
decreasing RHs into the low 20s around 10AM-2PM. Model trend is
keeping the winds breezy and RHs low through 6PM as north winds
continue.

Fire Weather Tuesday: As the ridge retrogrades west, a
shortwave on top of the ridge and a upper low in northern
Alberta will act to increase west/east pressure gradients in the
Pacific Northwest. Given increasing pressure gradients,
concerns broaden Tuesday for westerly winds around 10-15 mph and
RHs in the teens to low 20s in the afternoon for the Columbia
Basin, Palouse, Spokane area, and Snake River valley. Wind
speeds peak around 15-20 mph in the Cascade gaps around 5-8 pm
but RHs appear to be above critical levels at that time.

Fire weather Wednesday: Wednesday has the greatest potential for
critical fire weather conditions in much of central and eastern
Washington. Models are in generally good agreement that the
shortwave in western BC pivoting towards the base of the trough and
the wave riding the top of the ridge will phase together around
Vancouver Island and bring breezy to windy conditions to the INW.
Expecting westerly winds around 15-25 mph gusting around 25-35 mph
with RHs in the upper teens to low 20s for the Columbia Basin,
Palouse, Spokane area, and Snake River valley.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        96  63  97  65  91  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  63  96  64  90  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        93  60  95  61  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      102  70 102  70  97  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       94  52  95  52  90  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      93  57  93  58  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        92  66  93  67  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     99  68 100  65  93  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      99  73 100  71  90  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           98  65 101  64  93  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Mountains-Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan County-
     Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.
ID...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-
     Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.

&&

$$