695
FXUS66 KOTX 230559
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
959 PM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will arrive this weekend as high temperatures warm
into the 40s and low 50s. Runoff from rain and melting snow will
lead to increased flow and minor flooding across southeast
Washington and the central and southern Idaho Panhandle.
Another weather system Monday into Tuesday will bring more rain and
stronger winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the Inland NW is still on track for several
rounds of rain. I updated the PoPs to put more temporal detail in
between now and Sunday night. One wave of precipitation is
shifting across eastern WA into ID at this hour. However another
round of precipitation is expected to develop later this evening
into the overnight bringing a broader round of rain into early
Sunday. Additional rounds of rain will develop late Sunday morning
into the afternoon and then start to wane again. The tricky part
will remain timing all of this.

Hydrology products remain in place, including Flood Watches
(Areal and River) and one warning in place for Paradise Creek.
Look at the various flooding products for details. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Rounds of rain will impact the Inland NW over the next
24 hours. One round shifts out early in the TAF period, but
additional rain develops overnight into early Sunday, followed by
a brief lull before another round develops later Sunday PM. Look
for MVFR conditions, with periodic IFR conditions possible with
fog/stratus between those rounds of rain. Additionally wind shear
is expected as the atmosphere remains mixed, until Sunday
afternoon to evening when some gusty winds are possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence in timing and location of upcoming precipitation.
Ceilings expected to degrade to MVFR with lower confidence for
IFR overnight. Moderate to low confidence of wind shear values
being greater than 30 knots difference. Timing confidence in LLWS
shear vs gusty winds making it to the surface is low.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  48  37  49  38  48 /  90  80  90  40  90  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  46  35  48  35  46 /  90  90 100  30  90  50
Pullman        38  47  36  47  37  45 /  90  90 100  50  90  40
Lewiston       41  51  39  52  39  53 /  80  90  90  40  90  30
Colville       37  45  31  45  35  46 /  90  60  90  30  90  40
Sandpoint      37  42  32  43  33  39 / 100  90 100  30  90  70
Kellogg        39  44  37  47  36  40 / 100 100 100  30  90  70
Moses Lake     40  53  35  50  38  54 /  80  70  50  60  60  10
Wenatchee      37  47  34  44  35  48 /  70  80  60  70  60  20
Omak           35  44  31  41  33  42 /  70  40  80  50  80  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch through late Monday night for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
     Panhandle.

WA...Flood Watch through late Monday night for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$