254
FXUS66 KOTX 110709
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1209 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers over the northern mountains on Friday
  and a 10-30% chance for thunderstorms over the Northeast
  Mountains into North Idaho. There`s also a 50-70% chance for
  wind gusts stronger than 30 mph on Friday.

- Warming well above normal over the weekend into early next
  week. Minor HeatRisk into the weekend and increasing threat
  for moderate HeatRisk Monday into Tuesday.

- Hot and dry conditions and gusty westerly winds Tuesday into Wednesday
  with a dry cold front passage will bring the potential for
  critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm above normal through the weekend into next
week. The warm up will be muted on Friday with a low pressure system
clipping the northeast portion of the region. The weather system
will bring breezy northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley along
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily over the
mountains of northeast Washington into North Idaho. Then a strong
ridge of high pressure brings summer like temperatures to the region
Monday into Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s and 90s. Fire
weather will be a concern Tuesday into Wednesday with warm, dry
conditions and gusty westerly winds with a cold front passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of tonight through Thursday night: Clouds over the Idaho
Panhandle will dissipate overnight into Thursday morning in drier
northwest flow. Weather conditions will generally remain fairly
benign through the day Thursday through Thursday night with
mostly clear skies and temperatures near normal.

Friday through Saturday night: The longwave height pattern amplifies
with a strong ridge of high pressure building over the eastern
Pacific and a deep trough of lower pressure covers much of
Canada. A shortwave disturbance will rotate around the upper
level low in Canada and looks to brush across the Inland
Northwest. The result on this weather feature will be minor
impacts due to heightened fire weather concerns down the
Okanogan Valley and the western Columbia Basin and isolated
thunderstorms over northeast Washington into North Idaho. The
potential for elevated fire weather concerns will be due to
enhanced northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley that then
spread out over the Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake Area
Friday afternoon. The strength of these winds will be dependent
on how much precipitation occurs north of the Okanogan Valley in
British Columbia. Rain cooled air from showers would enhance
the northerly winds and bring more of a surge of winds down the
Okanogan Valley, whereas a drier scenario on would only bring
an modest enhancement of the northern gradient. The strength of
the northerly gradient between Kelowna, BC and Ephrata, WA only
increases up to around 3.5 mb off of the ECMWF mean. This would
bring the potential for wind gusts up to around 20-25 mph, but
more in the way of afternoon convection would bring this gust
potential to between 30- 40 mph. There is a 30% chance for
thunderstorms over North Idaho and these chances decrease to
around 10% further west out to Republic. Showers and
thunderstorms will be moving to the south and southeast. This
may result in convection coming off of the mountains and
impacting the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor. Any thunderstorms
that develop aren`t expected to be strong, and primarily bring
infrequent lightning, brief heavy downpours, and gusty winds.

Sunday through Thursday: Bigger changes come next week. The ridge of
high pressure shifts east over the Northwest through the weekend.
This will result in continued warming with highs on Saturday pushing
into the 70s to low 80s and then widespread 80s by Sunday. The ridge
axis sits over the region by Monday into Tuesday when our
warmest temperatures are expected and highs by then expected to
be up into the mid 80s to as warm as the mid 90s for portions of
the Upper Columbia Basin and the Moses Lake Area. These warmer
areas will see moderate HeatRisk and those that are sensitive to
the heat may be impacted with adequate cooling/hydration
available.

Model ensembles are then coming into alignment with the ridge
flattening out around Tuesday into Wednesday. About half of the
ensemble members shows a rather aggressive push of a dry cold
front. This may be our first significant critical fire weather
pattern for the region particularly in the lee of the Cascades
out into the Columbia Basin where grasses have sufficiently
cured out enough to carry fire. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph with
rapid fire spread will be possible for any new or ongoing
fires. This will definitely be a period to monitor.

The cold front will bring down our temperatures into the
remainder of the work week, and we transition back to a dry
northwest flow pattern over the region. This will bring the
potential for more breezy days and temperatures back toward
average for mid June. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Clouds will decrease tonight as drier air moves into
the region in northwest flow. Winds will light, but afternoon
mixing is expected to bring gusts up to 16-20 kts at KGEG/KSFF
out of the southwest for Thursday. Skies will trend clear to
mostly clear by Thursday morning with VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high
confidence in VFR conditions. /SVH

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        73  46  77  48  77  50 /   0   0  10  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  71  46  74  48  75  50 /   0   0  20  30   0   0
Pullman        71  45  73  45  75  46 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       79  51  80  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       74  41  77  43  79  46 /   0   0  30  20   0   0
Sandpoint      70  45  72  47  74  48 /   0   0  40  30   0   0
Kellogg        71  45  72  47  75  48 /   0   0  20  30   0   0
Moses Lake     79  49  83  54  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      79  55  81  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           78  49  80  52  84  55 /   0   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$