952
FXUS66 KOTX 111125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry conditions Friday.

- Showers return over the weekend. Southeast WA and the Central
  ID Panhandle will see the highest precipitation amounts with a
  60-90 percent chance of receiving more than 0.25 inches of
  rainfall.

- Warming and drying trend Monday through Thursday as the
  weekend system moves out, making room for a ridge of high
  pressure to build over the region.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Friday will be around 10 degrees cooler than
Thursday`s with dry weather and light winds. Saturday and
Sunday, a low pressure system will bring widespread chances of
precipitation, isolated thunderstorm chances and another round
of gusty winds. Monday through Thursday, conditions will trend
warmer and drier as a ridge of high pressure builds over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Friday: In the wake of Thursday`s cold front, temperatures
Friday will cool by 8-12 degrees, returning to below average in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. For most of the region, Friday will be
dry as the Inland Northwest sits in between upper-level systems.
The northern ID Panhandle will be the one exception with a
15-30% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering
into Friday afternoon. Instability looks rather weak again
tomorrow (100-200 J/kg), so widespread lightning is not
expected.

Saturday and Sunday: A significant pattern change arrives
Saturday afternoon as a deep trough begins tracking inland from
off the coast. Saturday morning and early afternoon is looking
pleasant with highs ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Winds will be breezy out of the north down the Okanogan Valley
and out of the northeast across the Columbia Basin with gusts of
25 to 35 mph. Ensembles depict a swath of moisture moving up
from the south Saturday afternoon into Sunday with PWATs
increasing to 150% of normal. Precipitation chances will start
to move in Saturday evening as the atmosphere saturates. By
Sunday morning, there will be a 60-90% chance of rain
regionwide.

There is high confidence that most locations will see
measurable precip, but significant uncertainty remains regarding
total precip amounts. Overall, rainfall amounts are trending
higher with each model run, but there are still substantial
differences between the high-end and low-end amounts predicted
by the models. For example, the 10th percentile (low-end) rain
amount forecast for Spokane is just 0.1 inches, while the 90th
percentile (high-end) amount is 1.4 inches!

As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, the chances
continue to trend higher for 0.5 inches or more of rain from
Saturday evening through Monday morning. The NBM`s latest
chances for at least 0.5 inches of precip are as follows:

- 45-60% for Central WA
- 60-80% for Eastern WA
- 75-85% for ID Panhandle

Temperatures Sunday will be well below normal in the 50s and
60s.

Monday through Thursday: High pressure builds into the region as
the weekend system exits to the east. Temperatures will
gradually return to near seasonal normals in the mid to upper
70s by late next week with dry conditions expected. Fog
potential will be something to monitor Monday morning with a
moist boundary layer following all of the weekend rain. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected today with passing middle
and high level clouds. Winds will be light and variable through
the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions through the period.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        71  51  71  50  58  44 /   0   0   0  90  90  50
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  69  47  57  45 /   0   0   0  80  90  70
Pullman        70  47  73  47  56  44 /   0   0   0  90 100  70
Lewiston       76  52  79  54  62  50 /   0   0   0  90  90  60
Colville       75  47  75  49  61  45 /   0   0   0  50  80  40
Sandpoint      67  47  68  47  54  44 /  10   0  10  70  90  70
Kellogg        66  46  66  45  53  44 /  10   0   0  80 100  80
Moses Lake     76  51  77  52  66  46 /   0   0  10  80  80  10
Wenatchee      75  55  74  53  68  51 /   0   0  20  80  70  10
Omak           76  52  77  52  70  47 /   0   0  10  40  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$