391
FXUS66 KOTX 121142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
342 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect cold temperatures through Thursday morning. Temperatures
won`t be as cold late in the week and into the weekend, but the
milder temperatures will be accompanied by increased chances for
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night:
Very cold overnight temperatures will continue across the Inland
Northwest through Thursday morning. Below zero readings will be
fairly common, especially this morning as Cold Weather Advisories
remain in effect. Pockets of fog are also anticipated, but don`t
look to become very widespread at this time.

Temperatures start to make a more notable warming trend beginning
Thursday as we transition into a more progressive and unstable
pattern. Chances for snow spread across the region Thursday
afternoon and evening, continuing into Friday night. During this
time, snowfall totals are currently forecast in the 1-3" range for
most locations, though portions of far east-central WA, the
central and southern ID panhandle, and mountainous areas will see
the potential for higher amounts. Northeasterly breezes on
Thursday will lead to some brisk wind chill values as well. /KD

Saturday and Sunday: By the weekend, the upper level pattern over
the Northwestern U.S. will have transitioned into a milder on-
shore flow. There is good ensemble agreement that an upper level
shortwave ridge will bring mainly dry weather to the Inland
Northwest early on Saturday before a mid-level warm front spreads
precipitation into the region late in the day and into Sunday. The
warm front won`t be a strong one. Surface temperatures will warm
gradually from Saturday to Sunday with highs in the low to mid 30s
on Saturday rising to just a few degrees by Sunday into the mid
to upper 30s. Snow levels will also be slow to respond. When
precipitaiton spread east of the Cascades late Saturday afternoon
and evening, snow levels will be low enough to support snow except
for elevations below 2000 feet in southeast Washington and into
the L-C Valley. By Sunday afternoon, the National Blend of Models
(NBM) gives Pullman and downtown Spokane a 50/50 chance of rain
and snow with a high in the mid 30s.

Precipitation probabilities favor snow over rain through Sunday
night for locations north and west of the metro including
Sandpoint, Deer Park, Colville, Republic, Wenatchee, and Omak.
Mid-level westerlies will likely shadow central Washington much of
the weekend with places like Wenatchee, Moses Lake, and Omak
having a 10 to 20 percent chance of an inch of accumulation
Saturday night through Sunday. Total snow amounts will largely
depend on the strength and timing of disturbances embedded within
the upper trough and how those disturbances interact with the warm
front. At this time 1 to 3 inch amounts appear to be the most
likely scenario for Pullman, Wilbur, Spokane, Coeur d`Alene,
Colville, and Kellogg. NBM probabilities for 4 inches or more are
around 30 percent for Sandpoint, Priest Lake and Metaline.
Motorists should be prepared for winter driving conditions over
the passes this weekend with chances of 8 inches or more
accumulation around 70 percent for Stevens Pass in the Cascades
and around 50 percent for Lookout Pass along the ID/MT border.

Monday through Wednesday: Additional snow accumulations Monday and
Tuesday will be favored over the mountains as the upper trough
moves inland. The northwest flow aloft will favor the mountains of
the central and southern Idaho Panhandle, the Blues in southeast
Washington, and along the Cascades Crest. Temperatures early next
at week will be seasonal with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and
lows in the 20s and 30s. Sunshine will be scarce once the pattern
change arrive late this week into the weekend as Pacific moisture
returns. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Dry, arctic air leads to moderate-high confidence for
VFR skies in Central WA around Omak, Wenatchee, and Moses Lake
through the 24hr TAF period. Forecast confidence is lower for
Eastern WA and North Idaho, where chances for nighttime fog
development persist.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low
confidence for fog at KPUW-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance


-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        21   2  27  22  32  21 /   0   0   0  60  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  21   1  28  21  32  21 /   0   0   0  60  60  40
Pullman        18   4  27  24  30  22 /   0   0  20  70  80  60
Lewiston       22   7  29  26  34  26 /   0   0  20  50  70  50
Colville       23  -2  27  17  34  16 /   0   0   0  50  40  20
Sandpoint      22   1  26  20  30  20 /   0   0   0  60  60  40
Kellogg        21   4  27  23  31  22 /   0   0  10  60  80  60
Moses Lake     26   8  29  22  35  21 /   0   0  30  50  30  10
Wenatchee      23   8  24  19  33  21 /   0   0  30  40  20  10
Omak           23   4  24  18  32  15 /   0   0  10  40  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST today for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST today for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
     Spokane Area-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau.

     Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST Thursday for Western
     Okanogan County.

&&

$$