554
FXUS66 KOTX 021728
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and Windy conditions Wednesday in central Washington and
  Pomeroy area with elevated to critical fire weather concerns.

- Not as hot Thursday and Independence Day with high
  temperatures in the 80s.

- Temperatures warming into the high 90s next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system tracking through Wednesday will deliver a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms producing little
rain. Dry and windy conditions will also lead to increased fire
weather concerns on Wednesday in Central Washington. Temperatures
will cool into the 80s for Thursday and Independence Day before
heating back up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: The Red Flag Warning was expanded to include the lower
Palouse and Snake River area based on dry, windy conditions this
afternoon and evening. JW

Previous Discussion:

Today through tonight: With the hottest day of the current warmup
past us, temperatures will be about five degrees warmer than they
were yesterday. As the ridge moves east, the low pressure system off
the coast of British Columbia will usher in a trough through the
state of Washington, bringing a change in weather pattern. Lift from
the trough brings a small chance of localized thunderstorms to
eastern Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle, but with very
dry boundary layer relative humidities, little to no rain will be
seen should any thunderstorms form. Rather, the main concerns will
be lightning strikes and the potential for fire starts. As the
pressure gradient tightens along the lee of the Cascades, westerly
winds will increase across much of the forecast area, with the
strongest winds being seen in the Wenatchee, Waterville Plateau,
Moses Lake, and upper Columbia Basin areas. Wind gusts in these
areas could reach 30-35mph. These winds combined with relative
humidity values continuing to drop into the teens will result in
increased fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening. As such,
a Red Flag Warning has been issued from 2pm through 9pm this evening
for the Okanogan Valley, foothills of Central Washington Cascades,
Waterville Plateau, and Western Columbia Basin.

Thursday through Saturday: With the trough moving further across the
state comes relief in the form of lowered temperatures. Temperatures
will drop down to right around normal by Independence Day, with
highs in the low to mid 80s anticipated. Cascade gap winds remain
breezy each afternoon through Friday. A brief shortwave will move to
the south of us on Friday, but only far southeastern Washington and
the Lewiston areas will see increased PoPs through the weekend.

Sunday through Tuesday: While ensemble clusters initially struggled
on whether the extended forecast would see rising or lowering
heights, it is now favoring ridging through the extended.
Unfortunately, this means our short break from near triple digit
summer heat will come to an end with temperatures on the rise by
Sunday. By Monday, dry conditions return and temperatures will be
back in the 90s for many areas. By Tuesday and Wednesday, models
show temperatures in the high 90s with some locations reaching
triple digits. For their 6-10 Day Outlook, the CPC shows a 60
percent chance or higher of above normal temperatures, with near
normal chances for precipitation. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
Some models show isolated showers or thunderstorms later this
morning into the afternoon across far eastern Washington and
north Idaho. Given low coverage there isn`t a mention in any of
the TAF sites.

Increasing onshore flow today along with an increasing pressure
gradient will result in stronger westerly winds through the
evening for the Cascade gaps and the western Columbia Basin
(EAT- EPH- MWH- OMK) with wind gusts between 30 and 35 knots.
Winds will also be breezy across eastern Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle with wind gusts 20 to 30 knots for KGEG, KSFF,
KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in conditions remaining VFR. Low confidence in thunderstorms
impacting any TAF sites. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        91  58  84  56  81  56 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  90  57  83  56  81  56 /  20   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        86  52  81  53  76  51 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       97  63  90  63  87  60 /  10  10   0  10  20  10
Colville       92  48  84  47  83  47 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      89  54  82  51  80  51 /  20  10   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        89  60  81  59  77  57 /  20  10   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     94  57  88  56  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      91  62  86  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  56  87  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades
     (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow
     Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville
     Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
ID...None.

&&

$$