622
FXUS66 KOTX 031750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quieter weather today with seasonably warm temperatures
- Several rounds of scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms this week, mainly Monday and again late
  Wednesday through Friday
- Below normal temperatures for the upcoming work week

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunday will bring seasonably warm and dry conditions for most of
the Inland Northwest with high temperatures in the mid 80s to
low 90s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms return on
Monday, and again late Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures
will also cool to below normal values for much of the upcoming
work week with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: The weather pattern this week will feature
a series of mid level waves tracking into the region from the west
and northwest. This will prevent any significant warmup this
week, with precipitable water values running at or above normal.
This is good news for the region given the recent lightning
event that sparked several wildfires across northern Washington
into the ID Panhandle.

Although for today elevated conditions will locally occur in the
Okanogan Valley and Highlands. Southwest flow ahead of a mid level
wave will allow for a seasonably warm early August day with high
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. This will combine with
some favorable channeling of winds in south- north valleys and
south aspects this afternoon that could provide locally
elevated conditions on some of the new fires. It`s also possible
new fires may show themselves due to the warmer/drier weather
that haven`t already. This wave will draw up increased mid level
moisture and instability across SE Washington into the south ID
Panhandle, with the brunt of the lift, and precipitation
passing south of the area across Eastern Oregon into the
Clearwaters.

Overnight tonight into Monday the flow becoming more southerly as
the trough axis pushes in, which will provide an opportunity for
showers to spread north into more of Eastern Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle. Yet with only weak elevated instability POP`s
remain mainly between 20-40%. Isolated wet thunderstorms will be
possible as well for the northern mountains, SE Washington, and
into the ID Panhandle. Cloud cover and showers will result in a
notable drop in temperatures over Eastern WA/N Idaho on Monday.

Heading into Tuesday a break between systems occurs but the
next trough is already starting to push into British Columbia
with mid and high clouds passing through the area. This trough
then moves over the area Wednesday into Thursday for cooler
temperatures, another round of showers and the potential for
isolated thunderstorms. With mid level westerly flow the highest
chances for precipitation will be found along the Cascade
crest, NE Washington, and the ID Panhandle. Differences in the
ensembles show up heading into late Thursday and Friday with 40%
of the solutions digging the trough over the area for more
showers, while the others show the trough pushing out of the
area with drier conditions by Friday. Given the difference
scenario there is low confidence regarding precipitation amounts
for this trough. There is high confidence in the cooler
temperatures, with highs dropping into the 70s to mid 80s (about
5-10 degrees below normal). Heading into Saturday 70% of the
ensembles begin to build a ridge over the area marking the
likely start of a warming trend. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue at TAFs, Some mid level
moisture and instability will creep into SE Washington, and the
Lewiston area after 15z Sunday. Yet models show the best chances
for showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Oregon, with a
10-20% chance as far north as KPUW/KLWS, with the better chance
developing late this evening into the overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence for VFR conditions. Low confidence in
showers.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        89  59  79  55  83  58 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  89  59  80  55  83  57 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        86  53  73  48  79  53 /  10  30  40  10   0   0
Lewiston       92  65  85  59  89  64 /  20  30  40  10   0   0
Colville       89  48  82  46  82  47 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      86  54  79  51  80  52 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Kellogg        85  61  75  56  79  59 /   0  20  40  20   0   0
Moses Lake     91  56  85  54  86  58 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      90  63  87  61  86  64 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           92  61  89  59  87  60 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$