816
FXUS66 KOTX 101851
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1151 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy across Columbia Basin and up Okanogan Valley Friday and
  Saturday.

- Areas of light rain and high mountain snow Saturday. More
  widespread rain and mountain snow Sunday into early Monday.

- Cooler temperatures Saturday through next week with highs in
  the 50s. Low temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s by
  Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloud cover and precipitation chances expand across the region
Friday. The weekend brings breezy conditions, much cooler
temperatures, and continued precipitation with snow in the
mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday Night: A deep low off the southern Oregon
coast will move east today, with southerly flow ahead of the low
and increased mid level moisture providing an increasing chance
for rain showers. Yet with a dry sub cloud layer today chances for
measurable rain are only 20-40%. This changes heading into tonight
as the low pushes inland across western Oregon with increased
lift, and mid level moisture with the low. The low continues to
move east into Eastern Washington Saturday before moving shifting
into North Idaho Saturday Night. This low will result in a cold
front passing through the region, with winds shifting out of the
west and southwest this afternoon into the evening, with much
cooler temperatures behind the front for Saturday as high
temperatures drop into the 50s to low 60s. Snow levels also drop
to 5000-6000 feet Saturday Night but any mountain accumulations
are expected to be light.

Sunday through Monday: The forecast gets more interesting during
this period as an upper trough drops south out of Canada and
intensifies over the region as a surface low spins up along the
WA/OR coast in the left exit region of an upper level jet.
Increasing precipitation with the low, will combine with north to
northeast winds bringing cooler air into the region. Snow levels
drop to around 3000-4000 feet over northern Washington, and 5000
feet over SE Washington. For the North ID Panhandle, models drop
the snow level as low as 2000-2500 feet which may result in wet snow
for some of the higher valleys in the N Idaho Panhandle. Several
inches of snow is expected in the mountains of northern Washington
and the north ID Panhandle, as well as the Central Panhandle
Mountains which may impact travel over Washington, Sherman, Stevens,
and Lookout Passes. The heaviest precipitation is expected late
Sunday afternoon through early Monday. Below are the chances of
24 hour snow totals reaching various thresholds ending 5 AM
Monday:

Mountain Pass    Chance of 2+"    Chance of 4+"     Chance of 8+"
Washington       95%              85%               65%
Sherman          85%              55%               10%
Lookout          40%              15%                1%
Stevens          65%              50%               20%

Monday Night through Thursday: A quieter pattern returns as the low
drops south over California and an upper ridge builds off the coast
provides a dry north to northwest flow over the Inland NW.  It will
feel like fall as low temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s for
most of the region, and daytime highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A deep upper level low pressure system spinning off
the Oregon coast will slowly eject across the Inland Northwest
tonight. Moisture will increase ahead of the low late this
afternoon into this evening with mid level clouds and shower
chances increasing. Weak instability in the Idaho Panhandle into
extreme eastern Washington may also result in brief thunderstorm
development. Showers will increase primarily over the Cascade
crest and over extreme eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle overnight. Westerly winds increase tonight and
continue into Saturday with gusts of 15-25 kts possible through
Saturday morning. Winds increase further into Saturday
afternoon. Increased boundary layer moisture will result in
lowering ceilings for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS. MVFR conditions
with low stratus cover will be possible across northeast
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle for Saturday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions today. Potential for MVFR conditions for KPUW-
KGEG-KSFF-KCOE increases after midnight up to 20% chance through
12Z increasing to a 50% chance thereafter through the morning
Sunday. There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms late this
afternoon after 23Z in the southern to central Idaho Panhandle;
unlikely that lightning will occur within the vicinity KLWS-
KPUW-KCOE at a less than a 10% chance today. /SVH

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        73  43  57  40  50  37 /  30  50  50  80  70  80
Coeur d`Alene  74  44  56  41  48  36 /  30  70  60  90  90  90
Pullman        72  41  54  38  48  39 /  30  50  60  90  80  70
Lewiston       77  50  59  46  55  43 /  20  50  60  80  70  70
Colville       74  33  56  29  50  35 /  30  50  70  80  80  90
Sandpoint      71  40  53  36  47  33 /  30  80  80 100  90  90
Kellogg        76  44  52  41  46  34 /  30  70  80 100 100  90
Moses Lake     73  41  61  40  55  42 /  20  20  30  30  50  80
Wenatchee      71  46  61  43  54  40 /  40  30  30  40  50  80
Omak           74  43  61  40  54  37 /  20  30  30  50  50  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
County- Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area-
Western Chelan County.

ID...None.

&&

$$