197
FXUS66 KOTX 242332
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm to hot through Wednesday.

- Increased fire weather concerns over the Cascades Monday and
  Tuesday due to hot/dry/unstable conditions with slight chances
  for showers and thunderstorms.

- Increased shower and thunderstorm chances mid-week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry conditions are expected to prevail into early next
week. Near record temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday
during the peak of the heatwave. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms slowly increase each day through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: Hot and dry conditions continue today and
the influence of a high pressure ridge. I downgraded the Methow
Valley Extreme Heat Warning to a heat advisory as overnight relief
was excellent in the valleys - 49 degrees at the Methow Valley
airport this morning! High temperatures today through Tuesday
will remain in the 90s to low 100s overall. Guidance has
continued to show a cooling trend beginning Wednesday thanks to
increased cloud cover but have held off trimming down the
highlights for now. Smoke continues to be of concern this
afternoon in southeast Washington and the southern ID Panhandle,
but improvements are coming within the next couple hours
according to hi-res smoke models. The atmosphere will become
increasingly unstable on Monday and Tuesday resulting in
elevated to critical fire weather conditions especially in the
Cascades where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. There is a 10-
20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday near the crest
of the Cascades.

Thursday through Sunday: The unstable atmosphere will also lead to
an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms by mid-week. With
more cloud cover, temperatures will be much closer to average in the
80s to low 90s from Thursday to Sunday. The pattern into September
becomes more uncertain with 70% of the ensembles showing a ridge and
30% showing a trough over us. db

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions with high clouds will prevail except
for KLWS and KPUW where smoke from fires in central Idaho and
the lower Idaho Panhandle will impact KPUW/KLWS. As of 23Z,
these TAFs had both improved to VFR, but by 10-15Z tomorrow look
to drop back down to MVFR, with KLWS having chances of going
down to IFR around 17Z. Improvement tomorrow will happen right
around the same time as today, 21-23Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence in VFR TAFs for KPUW/KLWS through around 10Z.
Moderate confidence in KPUW/KLWS dropping down to VFR with KLWS
dropping further to IFR through the day. Moderate confidence in
improvement timing being similar to today. /AS

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        62  97  65  96  66  92 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  61  96  65  92 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        56  94  59  93  63  86 /   0   0  10   0  10  20
Lewiston       67 102  69  99  71  92 /   0   0  10   0  10  30
Colville       46  98  48  97  56  94 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      51  95  54  94  58  91 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        65  95  67  94  68  89 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     61 100  63  99  67  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      66 100  69  99  75  94 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Omak           66 101  68 101  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Northeast Blue
     Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse-Western Okanogan County.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Central
     Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses
     Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
     Red Flag Warning from noon Monday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for East
     Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan
     National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington
     Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North
     Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704).
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Monday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Lewiston
     Area.

&&

$$