303
FXUS66 KOTX 032210
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
310 PM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms this week, mainly Monday and again late
  Wednesday through Friday
- Below normal temperatures for the upcoming work week

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A system moving South to North will bring scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms through Monday. Another midweek system is
expected late Wednesday through Friday with another round of
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will also cool to below
normal values for much of the upcoming work week with high
temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: The weather pattern this week will
feature a series of mid level waves tracking into the region
from the west and northwest. This will prevent any significant
warmup this week, with precipitable water values running at or
above normal. This is good news for the region given the recent
lightning event that sparked several wildfires across northern
Washington into the ID Panhandle.

Tonight into Monday the flow becoming more southerly as the
trough axis pushes in, which will provide an opportunity for
showers to spread north into more of Eastern Washington into the
N Idaho Panhandle. Yet with only weak elevated instability
POP`s remain mainly between 20-40%. The convection from the
evening will taper off overnight into the early morning hours of
Monday. Ensembles are kicking off thunderstorms around 1000PDT
on Monday starting in the LC valley and Southeast WA and along
the Canadian Border. The activity will continue to spread north
along extreme Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Cloud
cover and showers will result in a notable drop in temperatures
over Eastern WA/N Idaho on Monday.

Heading into Tuesday a break between systems occurs but the
next trough is already starting to push into British Columbia
with mid and high clouds passing through the area. This trough
then moves over the area Wednesday into Thursday for cooler
temperatures, another round of showers and the potential for
isolated thunderstorms. With mid level westerly flow the highest
chances for precipitation will be found along the Cascade
crest, NE Washington, and the ID Panhandle. Ensembles are in
good agreement with the arrival and track of system. By Friday,
the system is expected to over Western Montana and dry, warming
trend will begin to build into the weekend. JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue at TAFs, Some mid level
moisture and instability will creep into SE Washington, and the
Lewiston area after 15z Sunday. Yet models show the best chances
for showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Oregon, with a
10-20% chance as far north as KPUW/KLWS, with the better chance
developing late this evening into the overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence for VFR conditions. Low confidence in
showers.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        58  80  55  83  59  81 /  10  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  58  81  56  83  58  81 /  10  20  20   0   0   0
Pullman        53  74  48  81  53  78 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       64  81  59  89  64  87 /  20  50  10   0   0   0
Colville       48  84  47  83  49  81 /  10  20  20   0   0  10
Sandpoint      54  81  52  80  53  79 /   0  20  20   0   0  10
Kellogg        61  77  56  79  59  77 /  10  40  30   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  85  54  86  59  85 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      63  86  62  86  65  84 /   0  10   0   0   0  20
Omak           61  89  59  88  60  86 /  10  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$