381
FXUS66 KOTX 152132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and unstable conditions again on Thursday. Widespread
  highs in the mid to upper 90s with isolated triple digits.

- A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms Wednesday Night and
  Thursday bringing lightning, hail potential, and gusty winds.

- Hot and dry conditions return early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and unstable conditions, low humidity, lightning potential,
and periodic gusty winds will maintain elevated to critical
fire weather conditions across portions of Central and Eastern
Washington through at least Thursday. Hot and dry weather
returns early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday Night: A low spinning off the WA/OR
coast is proving an unstable south to southwest flow over the
region. With only weak forcing present through the early
evening, any shower or thunderstorm development is expected to
be tied to the mountains with the best instability along the
East Slopes of the Cascades. For tonight attention turns to a
mid level wave over Oregon that will lift north overnight.
Increasing lift associated with this wave, combined with mid
level moisture and instability will be favorable for shower and
thunderstorm development, with the highest coverage over Central
WA where the best lift will reside. With 700-500mb MUCAPE values
of 200-500 J/KG, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
except for scattered coverage in Central WA with the higher
forcing. With the dry fuels, any lightning will raise concerns
for new fire starts. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches
remain in place. With precipitable water values increasing to
150-175 percent of normal storms are expected to have rain,
although the fast movement will likely limit amounts to a tenth
of an inch or less.

As this wave exits into British Columbia Thursday morning, another
wave is progged by the models to move over the northern
mountains Thursday afternoon, while an axis of higher
instability is found over NE Oregon into the ID Panhandle. This
wave has the potential to bring stronger storms as 700-500mb MU
CAPE values increase to 500-1000 J/KG and 0-6km shear values of
40-45 kts. DCAPE values of around 1500 J/KG may also lead to
strong to locally severe downdraft winds from storms over SE
Washington into the ID Panhandle (including Spokane area) with
several CAM`s models showing this potential. SPC has placed the
ID Panhandle and portions of Eastern Washington in a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms. This wave exits the region
Thursday evening, although with the closed low off the WA coast
an axis of mid level instability lingers over Eastern WA into
the ID Panhandle which may allow for some storms to linger into
the overnight hours. With all this in mind will be monitoring
lightning potential closely for areas further east not currently
in watches or warnings.

Friday: As the closed low moves north over Vancouer Island, a
mid level dry slot tracks across Central and Eastern Washington
bringing drier air and locally breezy winds. This may allow for
fire growth on any new or existing fires. A few storms may
linger over the ID Panhandle and NE Washington otherwise Friday
will be quieter on the convective front.

Saturday through Wednesday: The low over Vancouver Island pushes
east allowing for a dry westerly flow to move over the region
this weekend. On Monday the pattern changes again as another low
develops off the coast with south-southwest flow drawing in
increased mid level moisture and instability by Monday Night
into Tuesday. This may again raise fire weather concerns from
thunderstorms.

Temperatures over the next 7 days will fluctuate some with 90s
prevailing for most of the period. For today and Thursday an
added couple degrees with some areas near the triple digits has
led to an issuance of a Heat Advisory due to moderate to locally
major HeatRisk. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High confidence for VFR conditions across Eastern WA
and North Idaho. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and
thunderstorms today developing over the higher terrain of the
Cascades and mountains along the Canadian border. Greatest risk
will be between 20-03z. Confidence on a shower or storm
impacting terminals is low. Will need to closely monitor trends
around Wenatchee, Chelan, Winthrop, Colville, and Republic.
Tonight the chances for thunderstorms increase to 30% after 06z
across Central Washington (KEAT/KMWH), 20% after 09z for SE
Washington and Lewiston area (KPUW/KLWS), and 20% after 12z for
NE Washington and the ID Panhandle (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions for the area. Confidence is
low on showers or thunderstorms impacting any terminals and
greatest risk thunderstorms is focused along the Canadian border
per the latest HREF thunderstorm probabilities. There are a few
hi-res models that do indicate a few cells developing over the
Waterville Plateau between Wenatchee and Chelan Wednesday
afternoon/evening which will need to monitored closely for
thunderstorms in close proximity of Omak, Chelan, and Wenatchee.
JW

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        60  97  62  91  59  91 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  91  61  90 /   0  20  30  10  10   0
Pullman        55  94  55  86  53  86 /  10  20  20   0   0   0
Lewiston       65 100  66  94  64  95 /  20  30  20  10  10   0
Colville       57  97  59  92  55  91 /   0  30  40  20   0   0
Sandpoint      59  95  61  91  59  89 /   0  20  30  20   0   0
Kellogg        58  94  61  89  59  87 /   0  20  30  10  10   0
Moses Lake     66  99  62  93  59  93 /  30  30  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      72  96  66  93  65  92 /  70  50  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  96  68  95  62  94 /  10  40  50  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Washington
     Palouse.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-
     Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM PDT Thursday for East
     Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan
     National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington
     Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North
     Cascades (Zone 698)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Waterville
     Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Okanogan
     Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley
     (Zone 703).

ID...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Coeur d`Alene
     Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
     Lewiston Area.

&&

$$