018
FXUS66 KOTX 132235
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
335 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty north to northeast winds today. Cold wind chills in the
  teens to single digits in the mountains this morning.

- Colder overnight low temperatures Monday Night through
  Wednesday Night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with fall like temperatures are expected Tuesday
through Thursday with colder overnight lows. Wet weather and
breezy winds looks to return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through tonight: The strong low pressure sitting just over the
Oregon coast will begin moving southward down the California coast.
A surface high just north of Montana has created a tight pressure
gradient with the low, which has resulted in gusty winds through
this morning. As the low moves southward and the high moves
eastward, the gradient will relax and wind gusts will decrease
throughout the day. There is no further rain anticipated apart from
some slight chances of continued precipitation in the Northeast
Blues and the Idaho Panhandle mountains.

Tuesday through Thursday: Main impacts during these few days will be
cold overnight temperatures. As the skies clear out and promote
radiational cooling, low temperatures across the forecast area will
drop to near or below freezing. In particular, the Moses Lake area
is still within its climatological growing season and is on track to
see near or at freezing temperatures through Thursday morning. A
Frost Advisory has been issued for this area from 12am-9am tomorrow
through Thursday morning. An upper level ridge off the coast will
allow for some higher heights to move through the area, warming
temperatures to the mid to high 50s, which is normal for this time
of year. PWATs during these days will drop down to 0.25-0.50", which
is only 55-70% of normal, indicating very dry conditions mid-week.

Friday through Monday: A shortwave trough will pass through the
state of Washington Thursday night into Friday morning. This will
result in breezy to gusty downsloping winds off the leeside of the
Cascades, which will then spill into the basin through the day.
Anticipated wind gusts will be 20-25kts. These winds will relax by
Saturday. PWATs with this shortwave passage will rise to just at
100%. However, chances of precipitation with this wave will be low
and mainly confined to mountain areas via orographic lift. Another
low pressure system will drop into the area Saturday into Sunday,
bringing a more potent surge of moisture to the area with higher
chances of precipitation as PWATs rise to 150-200% of normal. NBM
probabilities indicate that areas apart from the Moses Lake and
upper Columbia Basin have a 30% chance or higher of seeing 0.25" of
rain from Saturday through Monday morning. Winds will also increase
with this frontal passage. Ensemble models are showing general
agreement for this setup, with 82% of clusters favoring low heights
over the forecast area on Sunday. We will keep an eye on models as
they resolve this weekend`s system, but signals are leaning toward
another unsettled weekend. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: All TAF sites are anticipated to be at VFR through the
forecast period, especially as we move into the afternoon. Some
place still experiencing rain such as KPUW/KLWS could see
ceilings drop to MVFR with rain. Cloud coverage will slowly
start decreasing and all TAF sites will see SCT/FEW cloud decks
by 01-02Z. For the most part, winds will either stay a little
breezy around 10-15kts or weaken to less than 10kts except for
KCOE, which will begin gusting to 20-25kts around 10Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through most areas, especially after 01-02Z.
Moderate confidence that rain will continue for areas such as
MWH/LWS/EAT periodically and end around 21Z.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        30  57  33  58  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  30  57  33  59  33  57 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Pullman        29  55  31  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Lewiston       38  59  40  60  39  61 /  10  10   0  10  10   0
Colville       18  57  20  59  21  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      25  54  30  58  30  55 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        31  55  35  57  36  56 /  10   0  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     33  60  30  61  30  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  58  38  62  40  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           32  61  33  63  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Moses Lake Area.
     Frost Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 9 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Moses Lake Area.
     Frost Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to 9 AM PDT
     Thursday for Moses Lake Area.
ID...None.

&&

$$