741
FXUS66 KOTX 112244
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
344 PM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains, southeast
  Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle Thursday and Friday.

- Areas of smoke and haze through the weekend, especially near
  wildfires.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
region will continue through late week. Areas of smoke and haze
are expected to continue through at least the weekend,
especially near wildfires.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tomorrow: The Inland Northwest remains in a moist and
unstable airmass thanks to an upper level low pressure centered over
northeast Oregon. Currently the best overlap of thermodynamics and
kinematics exists in SE WA and the southern Panhandle. I am
expecting a similar evolution to Wednesday night where a broken line
of showers and thunderstorms form in central Idaho and move
northwest into the region in the evening. We are also seeing
thunderstorm development in the higher terrain of northeast
Washington and far north Idaho as well which will continue through
the early evening. With PWAT anomalies in southeast Washington and
the central/southern ID Panhandle around 160-180% of normal and
slower storm motions less than 20 mph, storms that form will be
capable of rain rates up to 1"/hr which could cause problems in
recent burn scars and urban areas. Tomorrow, the low shifts east
into the central Rockies and the threat of thunderstorms is greatest
in the Idaho Panhandle (15-30% chance).

Saturday through Thursday: Mid-level high pressure building in
central Washington will hamper terrain driven thunderstorm
development Saturday. Quickly on the heels of this small shortwave
ridge, a shortwave trough will increase chances for showers Saturday
night into Sunday. This round of precipitation will be much more
stable bringing chances for beneficial wetting rains. Central and
eastern Washington has a 25-50% chance and north Idaho has a 50%
chance of seeing 0.10"+ from Saturday night to Monday morning. This
trough will bring cool conditions Monday with high temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s. After that, models are in generally good
agreement of a high pressure ridge forming in the mid week which
would bring above average temperatures in the 70s again.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. The best chances for
thunderstorms this evening are at KPUW-KLWS (30% chance) from
00-04z THU. Low end chances for activity to reach KSFF-KCOE-KGE
(10% chance). Peak timing of convection 00-06z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions. Low confidence for
thunderstorms hitting TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        56  82  56  84  57  73 /  10   0   0   0   0  40
Coeur d`Alene  56  82  56  84  57  77 /  20  10  10  10   0  40
Pullman        52  78  52  80  53  68 /  40  20  10   0   0  50
Lewiston       61  82  59  86  61  77 /  50  30  10   0   0  50
Colville       45  83  47  84  46  75 /  20  10   0   0   0  40
Sandpoint      51  80  51  81  51  75 /  20  20  20  10  10  40
Kellogg        56  78  57  80  58  71 /  50  40  30  20  10  40
Moses Lake     54  85  54  85  56  75 /   0   0   0   0   0  40
Wenatchee      61  86  61  85  62  73 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Omak           59  89  58  88  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan
     County-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$