164
FXUS66 KOTX 050449
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
949 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, dry weather expected behind the earlier cold front.
Pockets of frost are possible overnight with areas seeing
temperatures near freezing. A more tranquil weather pattern is
expected this weekend and most of next week as high pressure
builds into the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front has exited. Most of the
precipitation has exited too. Some spotty showers linger near the
ID/MT border and a very narrow line continues to converge near
Puget Sound and push toward the Cascade crest. CLouds linger
around the Cascade crest and around the north and central ID
Panhandle and along the WA border. Given the rain that fell in
some areas (between 0.05" to 0.15" and locally higher) some
stratus potential is there as is the possibility for patchy fog
overnight into early Saturday. The winds remain breezy, however,
which may limit the coverage. I did add some patchy fog to the
forecast for tonight, but confidence is low. /Solveig

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Tonight through Saturday: The cold front will continue to move
through North Idaho before exiting into Montana by 7PM PDT. A
ridge pattern will begin to build in to the Pacific Northwest. It
will lead to decreasing winds and clearing skies through the
night. Overnight lows dip with the cooler air behind the cold
front. The lows will be in the 30s and low 40s. Some pockets of
frost are possible in the northern valleys and Basin. For
Saturday, the ridge will continue to develop in the region and
bring dry, calm conditions for the day. Highs will be in the 60s
and low 70s. /JDC

Saturday through Tuesday: Models are in strong agreement with a
strong ridge of high pressure forming in the inner mountain west
this weekend in response to a deepening low over the Aleutian
islands. Daytime temperatures will be right around normal (60s)
Saturday, but by Monday, temperatures will climb in the 70s (5-10F
above normal). Expect strong overnight inversions with light winds
forecasted and episodes of frost in the cold-prone northeast
valleys. Another Aleutian low late next week looks to form but the
position has significant weather impacts for us (ex: 20% of the
ensemble has an atmospheric river centered in the Pacific
Northwest by Friday of next week, while the other 80% of models
are mostly dry and stay as warm as the mid-week forecast). /Butler

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A system will continue to push east and high pressure
builds in through Saturday. Rain during the day has moistened the
boundary layer and some MVFR stratus is found near the ID
Panhandle including COE. Some clearing is still possible here, but
the forecast keeps some MVFR conditions in place. Some of that is
expected to expand through the night, but it may not reach other
TAF sites. So VFR conditions are forecast elsewhere. I did add
some patchy fog around the region. Heading into late Saturday
morning and afternoon VFR conditions are expected throughout the
region with some thin middle to high clouds. Wind will continue to
abate tonight and become lighter into Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high
confidence is VFR conditions at most TAF sites. Moderate
confidence is MVFR conditions at COE and low confidence is
MVFR/IFR conditions at COE, PUW, GEG, SFF, MWH from stratus and
patchy fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  62  38  72  41  74 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  38  61  39  71  42  72 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        40  62  42  70  42  74 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       45  70  46  79  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       29  62  32  70  31  73 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  59  38  68  37  69 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        42  60  44  71  47  71 /  80  20   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     38  67  39  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      46  68  45  71  47  73 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           39  67  43  72  42  73 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$