


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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452 FXUS66 KOTX 062139 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 239 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Thursday. - Cold overnight temperature in sheltered valleys through Wednesday. - Unsettled weather over the weekend including the potential of light mountain pass snow and breezy winds. && .SYNOPSIS... Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. Temperatures will increase slightly through the week. Next weekend brings chances of unsettled weather and precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Wednesday: After a chilly morning, the ridge centered over the Canadian coast will flatten and bring widespread higher heights to the area, bringing milder temperatures through mid-week. With minimal cloud cover, overnight temperatures will remain chilly through Tuesday but be back in the 40s by Wednesday. High temperatures will climb back into the 70s on Wednesday as well. No rain is expected through early Wednesday morning as conditions remain dry with PWATs at 0.4-0.6, around 80-90% of normal. Wednesday afternoon through Monday: An upper level low originating over the western Canadian coast will drop down into the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon. It will then retrograde westward just off the Pacific coast on Thursday. This will bring some chances of precipitation to the forecast area, but they are currently low, with NBM probabilities sitting at only 20-40%. The location of this upper low is still being resolved by models, so these probabilities could increase if the low is closer to the state, or decrease if the low is further off the coast. Winds will increase down the Okanogan Valley and spill into the basin, with gusts anticipated to reach 25-30 mph Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Throughout the basin, winds will be weaker, with gusts 15-20 mph. On Friday, the low will then begin moving northeastward into Washington and usher in a wet cold front on Saturday. This will raise PWATs to 100-150% of normal, bringing a more appreciable chance of precipitation. Mountain elevations above 3500 feet throughout eastern Washington and northern Idaho have a 20-70% chance of seeing 2 inches of snow through Sunday morning, which would bring some areas their first measurable snowfall of the season. Elsewhere in the forecast area, there is a 35% chance and higher of 0.25 inches of rain falling between Saturday and Monday. Chances for a quarter inch are lower for the Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Ephrata areas, sitting at 15-25%. With the cold front passage on Saturday night, ensemble guidance is showing early signals of gusty winds in southeastern Washington and the Central Idaho Panhandle. Areas from Spokane across to Coulee City and down to Lewiston currently have a 20-50% chance of wind gusts near 30 mph on Saturday afternoon. The passage of the cold front on Saturday will start a downward trend in temperatures. By Monday, lows will be in the mid-30s with subfreezing temperatures anticipated in sheltered valleys. High temperatures will drop into the mid-50s to low 60s. Tuesday and beyond: Ensemble model agreement decreases significantly, with 36% of models showing higher heights moving in, indicating a return to milder and drier conditions. 64% of models show lower heights moving in, but the placement of the low pressure system is unclear. Well continue to monitor the long term forecast and any changes to the weekend forecast. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Ceilings are anticipated to be at VFR through the forecast period for all sites but KEAT. Active fires in the Cascades are producing smoke and haze and currently EAT is at MVFR with lowered visibilities. It will continue to periodically drop in and out of IFR through the day. This smoke is expected to clear out of the area by the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions across the region except near KEAT where active fire active with result in smoke filled valleys and MVFR to periodic IFR conditions. Low confidence in when the smoke will move out of the area. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 39 71 42 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 39 71 42 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 38 70 41 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Lewiston 43 75 47 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 29 68 30 68 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 Sandpoint 35 66 38 68 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 20 10 Kellogg 43 70 47 71 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Moses Lake 37 71 38 69 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 Wenatchee 46 70 46 67 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 Omak 42 71 42 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan County- Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area- Western Chelan County. ID...None. && $$