246
FXUS66 KOTX 251121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
421 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy Friday, then slightly cooler over the
  weekend.

- Temperatures warming into the 90s to 100s next week with
  Moderate and localized Major HeatRisk Tuesday and Wednesday.

- 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry Friday with breezy winds in the afternoon and
early evening. Temperatures cool slightly over the weekend, then
rebound into early next week into the 90s and low 100s. Long
range models show a growing chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon through the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Friday: The Inland Northwest will be under a westerly flow early
Friday with a broad upper level low over northern British Columbia
shifting eastward. The flow aloft will begin to become more
southwesterly as a weak disturbance slowly moves southward over
British Columbia. This will bring an increase in high level clouds,
especially across central Washington, with temperatures across
eastern Washington and north Idaho cooling by a few degrees. The
cross-Cascade pressure gradient will also increase slightly (~+10mb
between SEA-EAT) with continued onshore flow into western
Washington. Fire weather conditions will be elevated for central
Washington and southeast Washington where the HREF is showing a 50%
chance for wind speeds greater than 15 MPH and relative humidity
values less than 20% between 3PM and 6PM Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: Temperatures cool this weekend with highs near
seasonal averages in the 80s to low 90s as there is good agreement
for subtle troughing to remain over the Pacific Northwest as upper
level ridging builds over the central US and the Rockies.
Deterministic models continue to show isolated to scattered showers
over southern BC and over central Idaho remaining out of our
forecast area Sunday into Monday.

Monday through Thursday: Models are in good agreement for the upper-
level ridge to build westward into the Inland Northwest on Monday
with broad troughing off the coast of California and a quasi-
stationary closed upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska. This puts
the Inland Northwest under a deep southerly flow pattern aloft.
Temperatures will trend much warmer Monday through Wednesday, with
Moderate and locally Major HeatRisk for Tuesday and Wednesday.  The
NBM is giving a 70-100% chance for high temperatures warmer than 95F
for many lowland locations in central and eastern Washington.
Deterministic models show the threat for showers and thunderstorms
spreading northward into the Camas Prairie area Monday into Tuesday
and into the central Idaho Panhandle Tuesday night. By Wednesday and
Thursday, models are showing the broad trough that was offshore
California to gradually strengthen and move northward, bringing a
more robust increase in moisture into the Inland Northwest. Ensemble
means currently show PWATs increasing to 120% on Wednesday and to
over 150% on Thursday. This combination of hot temperatures along
with the influx of moisture and the arrival of an upper level
disturbance hints at an extended risk of thunderstorms Wednesday
through Friday, but there remains some uncertainty in the strength
of this disturbance. Currently the NBM is giving the Inland
Northwest a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms for all three
days. This will continued to be monitored over the upcoming days.
/vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
Winds will becoming breezy again mid Friday morning with gusts
20-30 knots through the late afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions and breezy conditions.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        87  57  84  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  86  57  83  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        83  52  81  52  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       94  63  91  63  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       86  47  83  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      83  53  82  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        83  59  81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     91  55  87  55  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  60  86  61  88  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           91  58  87  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$