030
FXUS66 KOTX 081206
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
406 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier weather this weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend into the much of next week will bring a break in
the wet weather with continued mild temperatures for November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday and Sunday: Strong model agreement supports an amplifying
upper-level ridge dominating the weather pattern for the Inland
Northwest. Significant warming aloft is expected as the ridge
centers over the region, with 850mb temperatures rising to around
+3C (70th percentile climatology) Saturday and +10C to +12C (90th
percentile climatology) by Sunday.

The primary forecast challenge will be persistent fog and stratus,
especially across northeast Washington and north Idaho. A
combination of ample boundary layer moisture, light winds, and a
strong low-level inversion developing beneath the warming ridge will
favor fog/stratus development. The low November sun angle will limit
diurnal mixing, increasing the potential for low clouds to persist
through the day, particularly on Sunday. This could result in
temperatures being cooler than currently forecasted.

Sunday night through Tuesday: The upper ridge flattens Sunday night
as a weak cold front traverses the Pacific Northwest, potentially
stalling over the region Monday night.

Precipitation chances (30-60%) will be highest over the Cascades and
Idaho Panhandle, with lower chances (15-30%) for far eastern
Washington. Potential precipitation amounts remain light; 95th
percentile 24-hour amounts are 0.25-0.50 inches for the Cascade
crest and 0.10-0.25 inches for the Idaho Panhandle mountains.
Increased winds aloft, associated with a 120-130kt jet over British
Columbia, introduce a low probability (~20%) for gusts to 40 mph
over the Cascades and Blue Mountains Monday night.

Wednesday through Friday: Good model agreement shows the upper ridge
briefly rebuilding Wednesday ahead of an approaching deep low.
Ensemble guidance diverges significantly Thursday/Friday regarding
the precise timing, strength, and track of this system.

About 55% of members introduce precipitation as early as Thursday
afternoon, while 45% delay onset until Thursday night or Friday.
This also brings a 20-30% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph Thursday
through Saturday. Despite the high uncertainty for this system,
there is high confidence in a transition to a more progressive,
active pattern for the end of the week and into the following
weekend. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Calmer winds and a moist boundary layer will increase
the risk for fog and low stratus across northeast Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle valleys. KGEG, KSFF, KCOE have the
greatest chances (30-50% in the HREF) for IFR conditions from
fog or low stratus from 12 to 16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions to persist for KEAT, KMWH,
KPUW, and KLWS. There is moderate confidence for IFR conditions
at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE between 12-16Z. There is uncertainty in the
fog developing, but if it does, strengthening low-level
inversions may inhibit its full dissipation with some model
soundings suggesting it lifting into an MVFR stratus deck
through ~21/22Z.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        48  32  52  37  52  36 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  33  52  37  53  39 /   0   0   0   0  30  20
Pullman        50  34  55  39  56  39 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       55  37  58  42  61  44 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       48  28  50  29  49  29 /   0   0   0   0  30   0
Sandpoint      46  30  49  34  50  36 /   0   0   0  10  40  30
Kellogg        49  36  55  43  56  44 /   0   0   0   0  30  50
Moses Lake     52  33  54  34  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  37  52  41  56  39 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           49  34  52  36  51  35 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$