167
FXUS66 KOTX 261742
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1042 AM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-North ID and north WA will have chances for showers
 Sunday through Tuesday while central Washington will remain
 largely under the influence of a rain shadow.

-Isolated lightning with showers Sunday and Tuesday.

-Sunday through Tuesday will feature seasonably breezy west
 winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather is expected through Saturday with
high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s. A breezy weather
regime is expected Sunday through Tuesday with showers
concentrated mainly over north Idaho. Warmer and drier weather
will return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday Night: Closed low will move into southern
California this afternoon. Weak energy from the low is stretched
into eastern Oregon this morning. As we warm up this afternoon
there will be enough instability for showers to develop across the
Blue Mountains and stretch northeast towards Lookout Pass. There
is a 15% chance of thunderstorms across the Camas Prairie and
southern Shoshone county. Afternoon winds will increase across the
Cascade gaps with gusts 20-25 mph mainly across Chelan and
Douglas counties.

Sunday will see a better chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms as the backside of the low pressure system moves
through as the ridge begins to nose in. The area of concern is
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast WA. Chance of thunderstorms is
about 20%.

We will also see a push of northerly winds down the Okanogan
Valley onto the Waterville Plateau as well as across the Cascade
gaps Sunday. Gusts 25 to 35 mph is anticipated to begin in the
afternoon and will continue through the evening and overnight
hours. Winds across the higher terrain and higher benches will be
slightly stronger come evening and overnight with gusts 40 to 45
mph.

Have lowered minimum temperatures across many of the northern
valleys as with mostly clear skies and light winds expected, they
will be able to radiate. /Nisbet

Monday to Friday: The work week starts off quiet, before a
frontal waves passes with rain showers and a chance of t-storms,
then conditions dry out again until the end of the week when
additional rain chances arrive. Monday a shortwave ridge will
provide the dry conditions. The only exception will be lingering
isolated shower chances near southeast Shoshone county and
approaching the Cascade crest in the afternoon. Otherwise cloud
will begin to increase.

Between Monday night and Tuesday afternoon a frontal wave
pushes across the region. This will bring increasing rain
chances to the Cascades and northern mountains Monday evening,
then across much of the area overnight, although PoPS will still
be only 15-30% except at the Cascade crest when they will be
between 40-70%. By Tuesday morning the cold front/upper trough
moves in and the precipitation potential peaks over the east
third of WA and ID. PoPs are around 60-90%. I did push PoPs
higher than the base model depiction that the NBM was putting in
for Tuesday morning. This was based on Grand Ensemble average
PoPs for this time frame. Toward central WA, however, PoPs will
be on the wane Tuesday AM at 10-30% with the lower range in the
lee of the Cascades. Either way the potential for wetting rains
is limited, with the mountains seeing the best risk. There will
also be some low-end instability for a slight chance of
embedded t-storms over NE WA and ID, but these appear they would
be weak if any develop at all.

Wind will be breezy Monday and Tuesday, with gusts around 20-30
mph locally to 35 or so. The highest winds will be in the
afternoon and in the lee of the Cascades through western Basin,
especially the Waterville Plateau, and near the Blue Mountains.

Heading into Tuesday night through Thursday high pressure
builds in. Precipitation chance linger around the ID Panhandle
Tuesday evening, then the the area dries out for Wednesday and
Thursday. Some patchy fog is possible over the sheltered valleys
over NE WA and ID early Tuesday morning. Wind will be lighter.
Then by Friday the next system starts to move in, bringing
slight chances of rain near the Cascades in the morning and
across eastern WA and ID by afternoon, then a higher risk for
Friday evening (into Saturday). It is a bit early to give
precise details for this system, but some moderate rain amounts
are possible over the Cascade crest and southeast WA to central.
Yet overall impacts seem low. It will also come with another
round of breezy conditions.

Temperatures will be above normal much of the period, with
highs in the 60s and 70s through Tuesday, some upper 50s are
possible in sheltered valleys Tuesday too. Thereafter a warming
trend occurs, pushing into the 70s to lower 80s Thursday and
Friday (before a cool-down next Saturday). Lows will largely be
in the 40s, hut some mid to upper 30s will be also be found in
sheltered valleys especially Wednesday morning. So some frost is
not out of the question around midweek. It looks limited, but
it is something to monitor if you have concerns. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions are anticipated across the region
through 18z Sunday. Cumulus buildups over SE Washington into the
Central Panhandle Mountains are also expected, with a 20% chance
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the mountains south
and east of KLWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions at TAF sites through the
period. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        74  43  68  47  66 /  10  10   0  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  72  40  66  45  62 /  20  20   0  20  70
Pullman        67  41  63  45  60 /   0  10   0  20  70
Lewiston       74  46  71  50  67 /  10   0   0  10  60
Colville       75  36  71  43  67 /  20  10   0  30  60
Sandpoint      71  40  65  45  60 /  30  30   0  30  70
Kellogg        70  44  62  46  54 /  40  30  10  30  80
Moses Lake     79  45  74  48  72 /   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      77  48  72  51  69 /   0   0   0  20  10
Omak           78  43  74  46  71 /   0   0   0  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$