115
FXUS66 KOTX 150731
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1231 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and unstable conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread
  highs in the mid to upper 90s with isolated triple digits.
  Warm overnight lows in the 60s and 70s Tuesday night and
  Wednesday night.

- A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday
  bringing lightning, hail potential, and gusty winds.

- Hot and dry conditions return early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad ridge remains over the Central US, driving a warming
trend across the Inland Northwest through Wednesday. Hot and
unstable conditions, low humidity, lightning potential, and
periodic gusty winds will maintain elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across portions of Central and Eastern
Washington through at least Thursday. Hot and dry weather
returns early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday: The Inland Northwest remains under southwest flow
aloft with an area of low pressure spinning off the
Washington/Oregon coast and a broad ridge of high pressure over
the Central US. An influx of monsoonal moisture will persist
through the day on Wednesday, bringing a 15-30% chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the Cascades and northern
mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening. The sub-cloud layer
will be rather dry, so initial showers will likely be light in
intensity (or may just fall as virga, evaporating entirely
before they reach the ground). Some early morning cloud cover is
forecast to clear by late morning into early afternoon. If
clouds can clear out quickly over lowland areas, this will allow
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s for most
locations with potential for a few triple-digit readings. The
latest NBM gives Moses Lake a 10% chance of hitting 100 degrees,
Omak a 20% chance, and Lewiston a 35% chance. Late morning
clearing and subsequent surface heating would also increase
chances for convective showers and thunderstorms by afternoon
and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Cascades
and northern mountains under an area of Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm Risk given the dry sub-cloud layer.

Thursday: Recent model runs have maintained good agreement on
the evolution of the low pressure system off the coast heading
into Thursday. The upper-level low will meander toward Central
Oregon Wednesday night into Thursday, placing the Inland
Northwest in a region of diffluence. The resulting lift combined
with monsoonal moisture in place will be favorable for
thunderstorms starting overnight Wednesday and lasting through
the day on Thursday. Compared to Wednesday, the dynamics and
thermodynamics on Thursday look more conducive to the formation
of stronger thunderstorms. Profiles look fairly impressive for
hail with the bulk of the instability concentrated above the
freezing level and moderately steep lapse rates in the 700-500 mb
layer between 7.5-8.5 C/km. Shear profiles also look favorable
for stronger cells with 35-50 kts of bulk shear across the
region. Deep inverted-V soundings are concerning for strong
outflow gusts with any storms that develop. Best chances for
thunderstorms look to be overnight Wednesday into early Thursday
over the Cascades, western Columbia Basin, and north- central
mountains, but there is at least a 10% chance of thunderstorms
regionwide. The Storm Prediction Center has nearly all of
Eastern Washington and portions of North Idaho under an Isolated
Dry Thunderstorm Risk for Thursday. In addition, Fire Weather
Watches have been issued for the Cascades, Waterville Plateau,
western Columbia Basin, and northern mountains Wednesday night
into Thursday for dry lightning.

Friday through Monday: By Friday, the upper-level low will
migrate toward Vancouver Island, keeping the main thunderstorm
risk limited to far northeastern Washington and North Idaho.
Forecast confidence increases for hot and dry weather returning
over the weekend into early next week as the trough departs the
region and ridging nudges back in over the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures over the weekend will range throughout the 90s. By
Monday and Tuesday next week, temperatures will further warm
into the mid 90s to low triple digits. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. High clouds will increase
through the period as monsoonal moisture moves up into the
region. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms
developing between 18Z Wednesday and 06Z Thursday over the
Cascades, east slopes, and northern mountains including KEAT,
but confidence on a shower or storm developing directly over
KEAT is low so did not include in the TAF at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions for the area. Confidence is
low on showers or thunderstorms impacting KEAT Wednesday
afternoon/evening.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        95  61  99  63  91  59 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  63  99  64  90  60 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Pullman        92  56  94  55  85  53 /   0   0   0  20   0   0
Lewiston       99  66 101  66  94  63 /   0   0  10  20   0  10
Colville       95  57  98  59  92  55 /   0  10  10  50  10   0
Sandpoint      93  66  97  62  91  60 /   0   0  10  30  10   0
Kellogg        90  59  96  61  88  58 /   0   0  10  30  10  10
Moses Lake     98  66  98  61  92  58 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      98  73  96  66  91  64 /   0  50  30  10   0   0
Omak           99  69  98  65  94  60 /  10  10  20  40  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning
     for East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills
     of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Waterville
     Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening
     for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North
     Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation
     Area (Zone 697)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-
     Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle
     Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703).
ID...None.

&&

$$