060
FXUS66 KOTX 071743
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Thursday.

- Cold overnight temperature in sheltered valleys through
  Wednesday.

- Unsettled weather over the weekend including the potential of
  light mountain pass snow and breezy winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with chilly overnight temperatures and areas of
frost early in the week. Temperatures will then increase slightly
through the week. The weekend brings chances of unsettled weather
and precipitation including snow in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Sunday: Temperatures will be mild in
the 60s and 70s early to mid-week thanks to a weak nearly flat ridge
and a shortwave trough over the Gulf of Alaska diving south and
slowly retrograding off the coast. Models have finally come into
greater agreement the the evolution of the low. It will scrape the
northwest Wednesday off Vancouver Island bringing some chances for
showers Wednesday night into Thursday, especially in central
Washington where there is better synoptic support. Temperatures in
the 60s and 70s are forecasted continue through Thursday. Rain
amounts appear to be fairly light and west of US-395 between 0.01-
0.10".

There will be a bit of a break Thursday afternoon and evening as the
low retrogrades out to sea. A weak PV anomaly will pivot northeast
of the base of the trough Friday and swing north into southern
Washington by Friday morning, bringing more shower chances. Models
still show another low forming in British Columbia and diving south
into our region Saturday, bringing a stronger cold front passage,
more rain chances and dropping snow levels through the weekend.
Across all the mountains, there is a 60-90% chance of 0.25" of rain
from Friday to Sunday. Those chances decrease to 50-70% for the
Spokane area, southeast WA, and the L-C valley. As in most cases,
the Columbia Basin has the smallest chance to see 0.25"+ of rain (15-
30% chance). The post frontal airmass will bring snow levels to 4000-
4500 feet Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon. Colder air
aloft in the Methow Valley could allow for very light snow
accumulation above 3000 feet, but the precip behind the front will
be more showery in nature. From 5 PM Saturday to 5 PM Sunday, the
probability for 2+" of snow at some of the mountain passes are
listed below:

Stevens Pass: 50%
Washington Pass: 45%
Lookout Pass: 45%
Sherman Pass: 10%

Monday and Tuesday. Cool and unsettled conditions will continue into
early next week with potential for snow levels to reach near the
valley floors in the northern mountain valleys especially Monday
morning. /Butler

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions with light winds will prevail. EAT will
have MVFR conditons throug 20z due to wildfire smoke.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions across the region except near KEAT where active fires
could result in MVFR conditions and moderate confidence that
IFR conditions will occur at KEAT at times in the morning. /JDC

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        42  72  44  73  46  70 /   0   0  10  10  10  40
Coeur d`Alene  42  72  44  73  46  71 /   0   0  20  10  10  40
Pullman        41  71  41  71  43  68 /   0   0  10  10  20  40
Lewiston       47  76  48  75  49  73 /   0   0   0  10  20  40
Colville       31  68  34  72  36  70 /   0   0  30  20  10  40
Sandpoint      38  68  41  69  41  68 /   0   0  20  20  10  40
Kellogg        47  71  48  74  49  72 /   0   0  10  10  20  40
Moses Lake     38  69  43  70  43  69 /   0   0  20  30  20  40
Wenatchee      46  68  48  67  51  68 /   0   0  30  30  30  40
Omak           42  69  46  72  47  71 /   0   0  30  20  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Friday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$