017
FXUS66 KOTX 060608
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1108 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and showery weather expected through Labor Day Weekend
  with isolated thunderstorms.

- A warming and drying trend returns around the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather sticks around through Labor Day Weekend with
scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and cooler than normal
temperatures. A warming and drying trend commences around the middle
of next week as higher pressure returns to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday: The slow moving low continues to move
over the region. Precipitable water amounts continue to rise to
0.8-1.0 by Monday. The increasing moisture will bring a steady
stream of clouds across the region. As the low moves east, the
moisture swath shifts away from the Cascades and more over the
Idaho Panhandle and eastern Washington. For Sunday, precip
chances start mainly over the Idaho Panhandle and expands west
through the afternoon and evening hours. Precip chances rise to
60-90 percent over southeast/east-central WA and central and
southern ID Panhandle from Sunday evening through Monday
morning. 24-hour probabilities from 5 PM Sunday to 5 PM Monday
for 0.50 inches are between 70-90 percent, 60-80 percent for
0.75 inches and 30-60 percent for 1 inch.

Afternoon and evening instability will lead to weak
thunderstorm chances. Cape values are in the in the 400-800 J/kg
range with moderate lapse rates support weak convection. The
main threat with the thunderstorms will be lightning and gusty
outflow winds. Winds will generally be light outside of the
thunderstorms. Monday afternoon will be breezy with gusts near
25 mph across the Basin. Highs will be in 70s to low 80s. Lows
will also be mild with a range of 40s to low 50s.

Tuesday through Friday: The ensembles are in decent agreement
for the extended. A flat ridge pattern will set up over the
region as the Low exits. It will lead to dry, warming trend
through the end of the week. Precip chances will be less than 10
percent through Thursday. Another trough will drop in from BC
Friday as remnants of tropical system begin to press moisture
into the Pacific Northwest. It is leading to increasing precip
chances going into the weekend. NBM thunderstorm potential in
around 10-20 percent across the Inland Northwest with highest
percents over Northeast WA and Idaho Panhandle late Friday and
Saturday. It is too early to have much confidence in the
upcoming weekend weather but something to keep on the radar.
Highs for the latter half of the week will be in the 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper-level low continues to linger over the
Pacific Northwest. For the TAF sites, conditions will remain VFR
through the period. Increasing precip chances over
GEG/SFF/COE/KPUW/KLWS starting around 22Z and continuing through
the end of the period. There is low confidence on showers
impacting TAF sites. Showers could have isolated thunderstorms
embedded.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence
on thunderstorms impacting any TAF sites. JDC

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        48  75  50  67  48  73 /  10  10  70  50  40   0
Coeur d`Alene  47  75  49  63  48  71 /  10  20  80  80  50  10
Pullman        43  71  46  64  40  71 /  20  10  70  60  10   0
Lewiston       52  76  55  70  51  77 /  10  10  80  70  20   0
Colville       43  76  44  71  40  75 /   0   0  40  40  30   0
Sandpoint      47  71  48  61  43  67 /  10  20  70  80  70  20
Kellogg        45  73  48  58  47  67 /  10  50  90  90  60  20
Moses Lake     47  75  50  75  46  78 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      52  75  57  76  56  80 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Omak           50  77  50  76  49  79 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$