210
FXUS66 KOTX 191147
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
447 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and breezy conditions across the region today with
  elevated or critical fire weather.

- Remaining dry into next week with a warming trend.
  Temperatures push toward the 90s to near 100 by Tuesday.

- More unsettled mid to late week with an increased risk for
  lightning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today with dry and
breezy winds. Winds will subside across the region tonight and
remain lighter through much of next week. Temperatures will
begin to climb next week with some areas potentially seeing
Major HeatRisk by Tuesday. Increasing moisture in the mid to
late week timeframe may bring an elevated threat of
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday: There will be a warming trend
commencing in the Inland Northwest early this week as the high
pressure ridging builds into the Pacific Northwest. The only chance
for precipitation is some sprinkles in the L-C valley, Palouse, and
Camas Prairie Monday afternoon. A training band of light
precipitation will be falling out of mid and high cloud cover.
However, conditions below this cloud deck will be quite dry with an
inverted V sounding from 12,000 feet AGL to the surface. Models are
in generally good agreement that a trough will be off the west coast
by Thursday, which raises concerns for dry thunderstorms in the
Inland Northwest. The exact specifics are not clear at this point
but this looks somewhat similar to a couple days ago. These details
will be ironed out over the next few days. The big story will
be the heat prior to any potential ridge breakdown. Evening
models are in excellent agreement that temperatures Tuesday
through Thursday will be hot with temperatures in the 90s to
100s. This would equate to widespread moderate to major HeatRisk
and even with small pockets of extreme HeatRisk in central WA
where temperatures will stay warmer in the low to mid 70s at
night. There is a high chance heat products will be needed
during this period. The only potential challenge with this is
how extensive the cloud cover may be. With PWATs forecasted to
be 110-160% of normal through this period, any high clouds or
convection may help decrease high temperatures.

Friday through Sunday: Ensemble guidance is in unusual agreement
late this week with the longwave pattern. A trough will dive south
out of Alaska and the Yukon and approach our area. The desert
southwest high pressure ridge will be fairly anchored in place so
this will lead to a strengthening thermal gradient over the Pacific
Northwest. Temperatures will cool off closer average in the 80s and
90s. Confidence is moderate for elevated fire weather conditions
during this period with increasing winds at the surface and dry
conditions. /DB
&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF
sites into Sunday. Significant amounts of smoke from the Kaiser
Canyon fire near Nespelem, WA and Modrite Fire southwest of
Hunters, WA may result in more significant visibility
restrictions for the smaller airports north of Spokane including
Colville and Republic. Otherwise hazy skies are expected from
regional wildfires but low confidence of visibility dropping
below 6 miles for any of the TAF sites. High clouds will
increase from south to north mid to late afternoon Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions for all TAF sites through Sunday.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        89  57  92  64  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  88  59  92  66  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        85  53  88  57  93  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       95  63  95  67 101  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       90  54  93  60  97  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      86  56  90  61  93  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        84  56  88  61  92  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     91  59  95  65  99  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      92  67  94  73  99  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           93  64  96  70 100  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
     Panhandle.

&&

$$