Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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937 FXUS66 KOTX 221131 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 331 AM PST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Friday will be quite wet with the arrival of a moist warm front causing snow levels to rise above most mountain passes by Friday afternoon. Small creeks and streams will see rapid rises and there will be a threat for rock and mud slides near steep terrain. The weekend into early next week will feature seasonably cool temperatures and chances for valley rain and snow and periods of mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday: A surface low off the Oregon coast is sending a warm frontal band of moderate precip through the INW this morning. Snow levels will be high enough for rain in most locations. Lowland locations can expect a small few hour break in rain this afternoon before cold front forcing increases along and east of Moses Lake. The 9Z RAP guidance suggests the cold front forward progress will stall in extreme eastern Washington and north Idaho this evening and moderate rain will continue through the night Saturday. The lowlands can expect to see around 0.5 to 1.5 of rain through Saturday morning with the greatest amounts in extreme eastern Washington and north Idaho. Potential impacts include: Ponding of water in urban/low lying areas and areas with poor drainage, mud and rock slides near steep terrain, and rises on small streams and creeks. Paradise Creek at Moscow is forecast below action stage at the moment but the recent crest at 7.35 ft on Sunday was accomplished with lower precipitation amounts than what is forecasted. This will need to be watched closely. Two tricky areas for potential snow this morning are the Methow Valley and far north Idaho around Bonners Ferry. The Purcell trench is hanging on to cooler surface air around 31-34 degrees but higher elevation observations in northeast Washington and north Idaho suggest the presence of a warm tongue aloft which will limit the chance for snowfall accumulations. In the Methow valley, surface conditions are similar but higher elevation observations are a bit cooler. Winthrop is currently reporting 33 degrees and rain but model soundings indicate the DGZ is not fully saturated yet. The switch to all snow is expected at Winthrop around 4 AM or so and the expectation is a switch back to light rain around 10AM when the DGZ dries out. The cold front eventually moves into western Montana Saturday morning dropping snow levels back to around 3500 feet. Snow will struggle to accumulate on roads initially, but wintry driving conditions will be possible over the higher mountain passes. Lookout pass is expected to change to snow sometime around 4-6 AM supported by the HREF and the experimental wetbulb 0.5C level from the Utah Snow Ensemble. There is a 20-50% chance of 5+ of snow from Saturday morning to Sunday morning at Lookout (higher for the MT side of Lookout) and a 20% chance of 5+ at Stevens. The metro model shows road temps above freezing much of Saturday at Lookout pass, but heavier bursts of snow could overwhelm the mild pavement temperatures quickly. Expect periods of wintry driving conditions at the passes during this time, especially during heavier bursts of snow. /DB Sunday through Tuesday: An upper-low will loiter off the WA Coast Sunday and Monday and finally eject inland on Tuesday. Models are in decent agreement of at least two weak waves slung inland and passing through the region bringing periods of light precipitation. The air mass will be cooler with more typical snow levels for this time of year. As such, intermittent snow is expected in the mountains and mountain passes with a mix of rain and snow for the valleys. Snow levels will waver between 1k and 3k ft each morning/afternoon. Best chance for lowland snow will be across the northern valleys and possibly into the Upper Columbia Basin near US-2. Details remain uncertain at this time. NBM probabilities indicate a 10-30% chance for 1" of lowland snow on Monday from Waterville to St Maries and points northward. Take this with a grain of salt given the moist boundary layer and likelihood of fog keeping temperatures warmer than expected limiting valley accumulations. Wednesday through Saturday: There is a shift in the jet stream with high pressure building off the WA Coast. This places the Inland NW under northwest flow aloft. This will support cooler, more seasonal temperatures with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens to 20s. The uncertainty in this portion of the forecast comes with precipitation chances. Odds will favor the Idaho Panhandle, Palouse, and Blue Mountains given the flow pattern however, models are struggling with the placement of the ridge axis and where potential shortwaves dropping in from the northwest will land. More than 50% of the guidance deflect these east of the region with light showers impacting the aforementioned areas; 20% drop low pressure systems right through the PacNW and 30% are somewhere in between. This is reflected in the current forecast which maintains a 20-30% chance for precipitation for the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and eastern third of WA. This forecast has potential to drastically shift one direction or another as the large scale pattern becomes better resolved but at this time, there is low probability for any significant travel impacts. Given the upcoming holiday and increased travel, we will be keeping a close eye on this evolving pattern. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: A warm front lifting into the region is bringing the next round of widespread precipitation. Rain has reached central Washington including Wenatchee and Moses Lake and begin in earnest between 12-14z for Pullman, Spokane, and Coeur d`Alene. Increasing easterly winds is starting to break up the low fog at KGEG but exact timing of improved visibility carries low confidence due to this wind pattern advecting low stratus from Spokane to the Airway Heights. Light to moderate rain will in the morning will likely produce visibility reductions region-wide given the significant influx of moisture. Shortly after 00z, pressure gradients relax following the passage of the warm front and redevelopment of fog will likely occur at airports favored by light south winds including Spokane, Wenatchee, and possibly Moses Lake. The trailing cold front returns shortly after with light to moderate rain redeveloping over Idaho and the eastern third of WA potentially as far west as Moses Lake to Colville. This will likely inhibit fog but continue to produce IFR conditions from rain and low stratus. Low-level wind shear was introduced to the Spokane-CD`A area as well we Pullman and Lewiston. A 50kt low-level jet at 850mb will develop this morning from 180-210 degrees with surface winds maintaining a direction from the east/southeast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There moderate to high confidence for widespread restrictions today with moderate rains. The greatest uncertainty will be exact visibility by hour and how fast conditions improve/deteriorate behind the warm front and then resurgence of rain with the cold front. It is certain that the boundary layer will remain saturated and it will not take much to produce restrictions given the lack of dry air advection. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 48 38 44 33 43 29 / 90 90 60 20 40 30 Coeur d`Alene 44 37 42 33 40 29 / 90 90 90 30 50 40 Pullman 50 38 43 32 42 30 / 90 90 90 30 30 30 Lewiston 55 42 49 35 48 32 / 80 90 90 40 10 10 Colville 40 33 41 29 39 27 / 90 90 70 30 50 50 Sandpoint 41 35 41 31 37 27 / 90 90 90 50 80 60 Kellogg 45 36 40 31 40 27 / 90 90 90 60 60 50 Moses Lake 49 38 48 33 45 32 / 100 40 0 10 20 30 Wenatchee 43 34 44 31 40 32 / 100 10 0 10 30 40 Omak 41 34 44 31 41 31 / 90 40 0 10 30 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$